There's no remedy for premature evaluation. At least not in this business.
So while the basketball world is checking the GPS on its Jeremy Lin bandwagon, we might as well compare the New York Knicks' sensation with another point guard who made his celebrity bones running an offense for Mike D'Antoni.
Wow, shouldn't it be sacrilege to — after only five games in an oppressive spotlight — compare this kid to two-time NBA Most Valuable Player Steve Nash? Of course, especially if you're D'Antoni, whose gig with the Knicks seems a bit more stable since the undrafted former Harvard guard reportedly dodged waivers by escaping the bench to gun down the New Jersey Nets and has been lighting it up ever since.
While Nash continues pick-and-rolling into Springfield, we're now obliged to see if Lin can drag a comparable level of his recent success into the next game, the next week, the next month and the next season.
Although there are differences in their respective career trajectories, there are enough similarities for us to at least imagine where Lin might go. With D'Antoni doing his best to keep Lin's unexpected uprising in perspective, we've managed to secure insights for this premise from a veteran NBA advance scout.
"I'll take Nash," he said.
That's an extremely courageous stand, but we need some expertise on what contrasts our contributor has noticed.
"For starters, Nash is a way better perimeter shooter."
Yeah, that's a pretty safe declaration. In terms of a practical numbers application, Nash may be considered the greatest shooter in league history. Oh, he may not prevail in a shooting contest against everyone we've seen, but his shot-making in actual games is simply nutty. This season, for example, he's at 56 percent from the field, 45 percent from 3-point range and — in an up-and-down competition with the retired Mark Price for the all-time lead — a relatively icy 87 percent from the free-throw line. If he fails to reach 90, it might seem like an eclipse-level event.
Anyway, Lin's established commitment to improving must remain at its current high level for his perimeter shot-making to entertain comparisons to that of Nash.
"He's pretty good getting to the basket and finishing," our scout said of Lin. "Nash, of course, always has been able to do that, but at 38 you don't see it as much."
And — in addition to floaters and underhand cue shots off the backboard — Nash is able to make leaning jumpers coming off of ball screens. Don't try that at the park, kiddies, until you've become pretty accomplished at making shots while you're balanced. Learn to create space by faking with your feet.
While they're both listed at 6-foot-3, Lin is 15-20 pounds heavier and may have a more explosive burst than Nash had shortly after his days at Santa Clara. But Nash is impressively athletic in ways not defined by vertical leap or north-south speed.
In the past week, Lin has received credit for defending with more tenacity than a lot of previous observers expected. As the games, minutes and offensive responsibilities pile up, however, he seems a bit less eager to stay in his stance when taking on opposing point guards working around ball screens.
Nash, it should be noted, long has been harpooned by NBA watchdogs for serving as little more than a driveway for opposing guards. But he has been a lot less hospitable this season, perhaps coaxed to a higher level of resistance by the team's attempt to make everyone more responsible when the opposition has the ball. Like Lin, Nash isn't exactly Gary Payton, but his intelligence-based work as a team defender has been abetted by a noticeable on-the-ball upgrade.
"I really hadn't noticed that," said the scout, who has not seen all 27 Suns games. "I'm not sure what the supposed defensive metrics say, though. There are so many things that can happen on a defensive possession to alter the statistical interpretation of how a player is guarding another one. . . . I'd rather use the eyeball test. For a point guard, it's all about limiting dribble penetration."
Using my eyeballs for 27 games, I've seen Nash improve in this area.
In my DVR-assisted eyeballing of Lin, it's quite apparent that while registering as a willing and (mostly successful) distributor, he — like most of history's point guards — is far below Nash in terms of pass recognition. Beyond the ability to simply see a passing opportunity, Nash has the ability to identify a potential pass one or two ticks ahead. If the passing lane isn't pristine or the prevailing angle is less than optimal, Nash often is able to look off the interloping defender and deliver the dime.
Minnesota's Ricky Rubio has this ability. Lin may be able to close the gap a bit as the years roll on. It will be interesting to see how much and how well he shifts from scoring (needed by the Knicks right now) to distributing when Amar'e Stoudemire and Carmelo Anthony are back on the floor.
"This is a great story, and you'd love to see him continue this run . . . except when we play 'em," the scout said. "Remember, while Nash was a first-round draft pick, he didn't become a big star right away."
True. Fans in these parts are quite familiar with Nash's modest start in Phoenix, the gradual ascension while playing for Don Nelson in Dallas and the emergence as a bona fide star within D'Antoni's system.
"Like Nash, he's cerebral, and playing for D'Antoni in a point-guard-oriented system certainly doesn't hurt," the scout said of Lin.
But as Nash recently pointed out in a Sports Illustrated story, most NBA teams rely heavily on the same ball screens that Lin has parlayed into this wild ride. It also should be noted that not every pro-level point guard can flourish in a screen-roll format. Look how long the Suns have been searching for someone to execute the same system when Nash is on the bench.
So let's not attempt to convince anyone that, in Lin, we're watching the second coming of Nash. But because of what Nash, the outlier, has accomplished, Lin has earned his own opportunity to thrive.
