History is always picky about whom she lets into her club. She has chewed up and spit out 11 straight Triple Crown applicants, humbled some all-time greats, leaving a trail of heartbreak 32 years long.
Now, here comes her next contestant, a 3-year-old colt named I'll Have Another who defies every notion of what a Triple Crown winner should be.
At 2, he was barely regarded as a horse for the classics, much less a champion of them. When he finally started winning races in California this spring, it was by grinding past his competitors in the deep stretch, not blowing them away. And still now, in seven career starts, not once has he gone to post as the betting favorite.
But when I'll Have Another raced past the grandstand at Pimlico on Saturday, barreling through the stretch and finally past Bodemeister in the last few jumps to win the 137th Preakness, none of that mattered. The longest drought in Triple Crown history once again is on the verge of ending — and I'll Have Another appears to have the right stuff to survive the toughest test of them all at Belmont Park in three weeks.
It's between him and the racing gods now.
"There are a lot of horses that have been in this position the last 15 years and it didn't happen for them," said owner J. Paul Reddam, a former philosophy professor who turned his side business in money lending into a fortune.
"We're only two-thirds there, right? So we've got to be cool. If it happens, it happens."
Since Affirmed won the Triple Crown in 1978, the Belmont stretch has denied so many greats their place in history. The ghosts of Spectacular Bid, Alysheba, Sunday Silence and Smarty Jones still lurk in the shadow of the wire at that massive track, and surely they will be there waiting to see if I'll Have Another can do what only 11 others have accomplished by adding that final 1-1/2-mile test.
After watching him furiously reel in Bodemeister for a second time, in a completely different kind of race than the Kentucky Derby, the mind begins to wander. Maybe he really is that good. Maybe it's time for history to yield her objection. Maybe he’s the one.
"I thought I put him away," said Bodemeister's jockey Mike Smith, who led turning for home, just as he did in the Derby, only to get passed in the final 20 yards.
"He reached up and got us with three strides. Two great horses."
Only one matters now, though — finally.
In the days after the Kentucky Derby, nearly all of the attention was focused on Bodemeister, who set such sizzling fractions in that race that only a superhorse could have held on to win. I'll Have Another was viewed as the beneficiary of a favorable pace scenario that wouldn't be duplicated in the Preakness with a smaller field and less speed to push Bodemeister up front.
It left Mario Gutierrez, the jockey of I'll Have Another, in an uncertain position. Should he chase the lead out of fear or settle into the middle of the pack and let the race come to him, as he did in the Derby? And if he made the wrong move, Gutierrez — who had never ridden in any Triple Crown race before this year — would get the blame.
"We didn't want to gun our horse and take him out of his game, either," trainer Doug O'Neill said. "I think at the end of the day, Mario felt very comfortable and super-confident in this horse and his ability to get the best out of him."
That confidence had to wane a bit, though, after Bodemeister went to the lead again, this time setting a much more relaxed pace than in the Derby. Bodemeister's trainer, Bob Baffert, had retreated to the indoor paddock to watch the race on television with his three sons and was shouting out the fractions he wanted to see.
"They're going slow," Baffert said, right before the toteboard showed a moderate 23.79 seconds for the first quarter.
"Let's see 48," he said, and nearly got his wish when the first half-mile was run in 47.68 seconds.
"That's good. Where's the wire?"
Once again, it would prove to be elusive. By the top of the stretch, Bodemeister had opened up a three-length lead, but I'll Have Another, who went wide on both turns, was gearing up to come get him. Though he ducked inside a bit before correcting himself, Gutierrez timed his rally perfectly, waiting until the eighth pole to ask his colt for his best stride.
In the Derby, Bodemeister stopped. This time, I'll Have Another simply passed him, the final margin just a neck.
"He has a tremendous kick in the end," Gutierrez said. "He has proven himself."
But that's the thing about the Triple Crown. Proving yourself twice isn't good enough, and the third one is always the hardest. I'll Have Another has the right running style to do it; he can stay close to the pace if need be or come running late. His breeding suggests he won't have any problem with the distance. He's 4 for 4 this year and should still have something left in the tank after a relatively light winter campaign.
Gutierrez has given him two perfect rides and appears to be unflappable under pressure. And Bodemeister is going home to California, not moving on to New York.
Everything is in line for someone to finally claim the crown.
"It's kind of surreal," assistant trainer Dennis O'Neill said. "I thought this horse was a really, really good horse going in. I think after today, he's proven he's a great horse."
But only history will tell us that. Her harshest judgment is yet to come.
