How to make money betting California Chrome in the Winter Challenge
The brief Los Alamitos Winter Thoroughbred meet winds down over the upcoming weekend with a race designed especially for 2014 Horse of the Year California Chrome as a prep for his final start in next month’s $12 million Pegasus World Cup Invitational, and as a fan farewell event for the state-bred hero who has stabled at Los Al for the majority of his amazing career.
The $180,000 Winter Challenge Stakes drew a field of 12, two of those also-eligibles, with California Chrome slated to start on the outside in post position 10 on Saturday. Each of the starters are guaranteed at least $10,000 if they finish the race, which would seem to be the only plausible reason the connections of several of Chrome’s foes would have to contest what is shaping up like a 1 1/16-mile paid workout for the future Hall of Fame racehorse.
As a celebration and a fond goodbye to Chrome from his Southern California fans, the Winter Challenge is a can’t-miss event. But for those looking to turn a profit by wagering on Chrome on Saturday, it’s a certainty that even the payoffs for bets like the exacta and trifecta will be quite modest given that Chrome is practically a cinch to leave the gate at odds of 1-to-10.
Eight of the nine other horses scheduled to start in the Winter Challenge exit optional-claiming or straight claiming races, the only exception being Longacres Mile winner Point Piper (#4), whose most recent start was a runner-up finish to Midnight Storm in the Native Diver Stakes. That Jerry Hollendorfer-trained 6-year-old is an honest horse who has hung tough against the likes of Dortmund and Effinex over the past year or so, and I figure Mario Gutierrez will be wise enough not to challenge Chrome through the early stages of the race and shoot for the runner-up check.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hWQ6c2q69v0
Point Piper will probably be the second wagering choice at post time, and, with a $20 budget, I will include him underneath California Chrome in an $8 exacta. With the remaining $12, I’ll select three other horses that should have longer odds and use them with Point Piper in a $1 trifecta in the second and third slots behind Chrome. Papacoolpapacool (#9) has made all but one of his 18 career starts on either turf or synthetic surfaces. The gelding has two stakes wins on turf, and like Point Piper, has shown the ability to fashion a decent closing kick with a good trip.The other two horses, Lucky J Lane (#6) and Avanti Bello (#7), also have some stakes experience, particularly Avanti Bello. That Doug O’Neill-trained 4-year-old is probably the most consistent racehorse in the Winter Challenge aside from California Chrome, having finished in the top three in eight of his 11 starts this year.
Betting strategy on a $20 budget:
$8 exacta 10 with 4
$1 trifecta 10 with 4,6,7,9 with 4,6,7,9 ($12)
