How good can Braves rotation be in 2013?
In baseball, occasionally, the present can be an misleading predictor for the future.
Prime example: Take the Braves' pitching staff from two or three seasons ago, then look at the changes that have been made since. Was it not just during the 2008 and 2009 season that a 22- and 23-year-old Jair Jurrjens played the role of future ace (and All-Star snub) for Atlanta? Was Tommy Hanson not supposed to develop into a front-end starter to go right along with Jurrjens to anchor the rotation for years to come?
In the not-so-distant past, Jurrjens and Hanson were the future. Now, one looks to be a No. 4 or 5 starter for a West Coast contender while another still searches for employment.
Such is the business of baseball, especially in an organization like the Braves where pitching talent is productive, young and unyielding.
The Braves traded Hanson to the Angels in December for strong-armed reliever Jordan Walden, avoiding the 26-year-old's first year of eligibility for arbitration. The Angels handed Hanson a $3.7 million contract for 2013, which would have made him the third-highest paid starter on Atlanta's roster — behind Tim Hudson at $9 million and Paul Maholm at $6.5 million — and put plenty of scrutiny on the franchise's front office. It avoided all of that, though, and despite finished second on the team in wins (13) and finishing third in innings pitched (174.2), Hanson now finds himself back in his home state of California.
Good move? Likely, yes.
His strikeout rates on the decline, while his walk and home run rates hit career highs last season. Add in the declining velocity of his fastball — granted, all of this negative information is probably related to Hanson's health issues on some level — and it looks like a smart move by a team flush with young arms all around.
Jurrjens' decline was even steeper, falling from a Rookie of the Year candidate and 2011 All-Star to not even being offered a contract from Atlanta this offseason. He's had his own set of health issues, starting just 10 games last season, but that's a freefall for a guy who should be in his prime.
Think about this: From 2008-11, only 11 other pitchers (among those who threw 650 innings or more) posted a lower ERA than Jurrjens' (3.34).
But the control-oriented Jurrjens always posted alarmingly low strikeout rates, so when his ERA ballooned to nearly double the number of batters he was fanning every nine innings, he negatively impacted the team and it was time to say goodbye.
The moral of the story is that although Atlanta boasts a plethora of arms other teams have coveted, especially via trade discussions, anything can happen.
With a young corps of Kris Medlen, Brandon Beachy, Mike Minor, Randall Delgado and Julio Teheran, as well as prospects like Sean Gilmartin making a push this season, there are plenty of questions surrounding this talented roster.
Before delving into this question, let's first put Medlen's previous year into perspective:
* After returning from Tommy John surgery, Medlen entered the bullpen
before making his first start of the season on July 31. Of course, he
emerged with a win and continued a streak that would stretch to a major league record
23 straight games the Braves won with Medlen starting. The team won all
10 of his regular season starts in 2012. Truthfully, it's one of the
all-time great runs in baseball history.
* Although he didn't
qualify for any major pitching statistic — a mere 24 innings separated
him from the rest of the pack — he would have led the league in ERA, win
percentage and finished second in strikeout-to-walk ratio. After
entering the rotation, he went 9-0 with a microscopic 0.97 ERA, struck
out 84 batters in 83.2 innings and was, overall, the best pitcher in
baseball. Bar none.
* Winning. Lots and lots of winning.
course, all of those numbers came to a screeching halt in the Braves'
loss in the one-game wild-card playoff, where Medlen finally lost after
giving up two earned runs (three others came via errors). So he's not
invincible, we've learned that.
Perhaps last season was a bit of a
charmed run, but Medlen has shown that he can perform around that level
in the past. His control is off the charts right now and he's never
been the type of pitcher to give up the long ball. With that nasty
change-up, don't expect his strikeout rates to decline dramatically.
Working with former Braves legend Greg Maddux at the World Baseball Classic will only help Medlen, as well.
Let's get this out of the way: If Beachy can rediscover his 2011 self before he went down with a partially torn UCL in his right elbow last season, Atlanta will, without question, boast one of the best starting rotations in baseball.
Although pitching with soreness for a large portion of last season, Beachy posted a 5-5 record, but led all of baseball with a 2.00 ERA. The strange aspect considering the potential of the young right-hander is that most reference his league-low ERA in 2012 as his key statistic, but, in truth, his 2011 season was even better. He struck out three more more batters per nine innings, posted a more impressive fielding independent pitching (FIP) score and walked fewer guys.
The main difference? Last season, thanks to an improved defense behind him, opposing batters' batting average on balls in play dropped by 107 points.
That number has the tendency to fluctuate year-to-year, even with elite pitchers, so it's not exactly a measure to wholeheartedly rely on.
Beachy is following successful Tommy John patients in fellow starters Medlen and Hudson, and said at Tuesday's early pitching program that having those guys around has helped with the 12-month process. If his arm and stuff return, he's a top-of-the-rotation type of guy who could give the Braves a lethal combination of Medlen-Beachy-Hudson in whatever order manager Fredi Gonzalez prefers.
He's expected to return in mid-June. When that happens, depending on his status, who knows how effective this rotation could be.
This comes with one caveat: As of writing this, the Braves have not made a trade for Justin Upton or any other outfielder, so Randall Delgado, Julio Teheran and all other young pitching prospects are still on the 40-man roster.
For now, it appears this is Delgado's slot to lose, although much will be decided in spring training. If Teheran pitches lights out and Delgado struggles, all bets are off. (Don't count out Gilmartin pushing for this spot later on this season, either.) Delgado has the edge in experience here, and is expected to have a slight inside track on it to open up the season. Just for argument's sake, here's a look at their major league careers to date:
* Delgado: 5-10 record; 127.2 innings pitched; 3.95 ERA; 6.63/3.95 strikeouts/walks per nine innings; 4.36 FIP
* Teheran: 1-1 record; 26 innings pitched; 5.19 ERA; 5.19/3.12 strikeouts/walks per nine innings; 4.86 FIP
Delgado has the edge across the board with the exception of his tendency to walk batters, which he will need to cut down on to become a consistent starter at the big league level. Teheran likely just needs some more experience since that small sample size offers little to work with —he has, however, posted some ridiculous strikeout-to-walk ratios in the minors. That being said, a trade could alter everything here.
Either way, the Braves look to be in very good shape depth-wise.
As of writing this, I expect the Opening Day rotation will read Medlen, Hudson, Maholm, Minor and Delgado/Teheran, and work itself out from there.