I’m starting to put notes together for the prologue to my 2012 fantasy football tome, and I keep scrawling “INJ” next to seemingly every running back. The idea of drafting a quarterback and two stellar wide receivers to start a roster doesn’t seem so crazy to be at this juncture.
Eventually, I’ll have a day off or two and will fire up some old tapes from the 80s or early 90s. The romanticism of “three yards and a cloud of dust” will reenergize me about the position. For now, it’s a passing world and a battle for the “last-man standing” title at the tailback position.
I want to know. Did you get desperate in the fantasy playoffs? Did you reach for a waiver wire flier? Let me know at swollendomepr@gmail.com.
I can’t wait to see your answers as we watch Saturday’s action.
Until then, let’s lock and load and find the best plays for Week 16 in this installment of “Lineup Calls.”
Exclude: Arian Foster, Ray Rice, LeSean McCoy, Maurice Jones-Drew, Adrian Peterson, Frank Gore, Michael Turner, Reggie Bush (looks like he made it!), Ryan Mathews
Week 16 RB Heroes
Michael Bush at KC: Bush has been a strong plug-in option in place of Darren McFadden, and he’ll remain the leader of the Raiders down the stretch as they vie for the AFC West title. I’m not sure that I trust Carson Palmer and the Oakland passing game against the Kansas City secondary. I do trust Bush to move piles on the ground.
The Chiefs have surrendered the sixth-most fantasy points to running backs (158.6 total yards with 12 total touchdowns). Bush rushed for 99 yards on 17 carries against Kansas City in Week 7.
C.J. Spiller vs. DEN: Spiller produced a fantastic game against the Dolphins in what appeared to be a difficult spot (167 total yards on 21 touches, including nine receptions). He scored just the fifth rushing touchdown against Miami this season and later added a receiving touchdown.
He’s a strong starter this week against the middling Denver run defense. The Broncos have surrendered nearly 156 total yards per game to running backs with eight touchdowns.
Willis McGahee at BUF: McGahee was limited to seven carries in Week 15 against the Patriots, though he did produce 70 rushing yards in the outing. He’s been limited during the practice week because of a hamstring, thereby opening the door for additional carries for Lance Ball (stash him as an insurance card).
McGahee is a fantastic play if cleared for Saturday. The Bills have surrendered the third-most fantasy points to running backs at 157.1 total yards and 1.3 total touchdowns allowed per game.
Chris Johnson vs. JAC: Johnson was limited early during the practice week because of an ankle injury. However, Mike Munchak advised reporters that he expects Johnson to assume his normal workload on Saturday against the Jaguars. As such, owners can slide Johnson into their RB2 slots for Week 16, though stashing Jamie Harper as a security blanket would be a wise move. Johnson hasn’t been overwhelming, but he stands 70 rushing yards shy of 1,000 for the season and has topped 100 total yards in five of his past seven games.
Roy Helu vs. MIN: Helu logged a heavy workload against the Giants in Week 15, but the results were mediocre with 69 total yards on 26 touches. He’s also been impacted by toe and knee injuries during the practice week. As such, his stock dips a bit for Week 16 (grab Evan Royster as insurance), but I’m reticent to bounce him down the rankings too severely.
Minnesota has allowed 134 total yards per game and 13 touchdowns overall to running backs. Most telling for Helu’s success is the fact that running backs have caught a total of 71 passes (5.1 receptions per game) versus the Vikings.
DeAngelo Williams vs. TB: Williams ran for 61 yards on 15 attempts with a touchdown in the Panthers’ Week 15 road win over Houston. He started the season slowly, but has worked himself back into RB2 consideration with several strong games down the stretch.
I’ll roll the dice on Williams in a big spot against the horrid Tampa Bay run defense. Obviously, you still fear Williams’ teammates, Cam Newton and Jonathan Stewart, at the goal line, but this is a spot for Williams to pile up carries and explode for a big play. The Buccaneers have allowed the most fantasy points to running backs.
Darren Sproles vs. ATL: Sproles’ appearance on this list will raise a few eyebrows. He was, after all, limited to three total yards on six touches in Week 10. However, that’s a blip on the radar for a player who has been a strong weekly contributor as a RB2 option. Sproles has amassed at least 74 total yards in 11 of 14 games. He won’t run for a high total against the stout Atlanta run defense, but he’ll make up for it on his reception totals (79 receptions through 14 weeks).
Week 16 RB Flop Alerts
Marshawn Lynch vs. SF: Following Lynch’s ridiculous run to fantasy immortality, there’s no chance that he’s finding your bench in a traditional league. I’m sure my email and Twitter accounts (@swollendome) will be under siege with myriad examples of better matchups, but it will be awfully difficult to shut Lynch down.
He posted 47 total yards in the first meeting with San Francisco, and obviously did not produce a rushing touchdown in that matchup. Lynch has been a no-brainer plug and play option for weeks. I have him ranked 15th against the 49ers.
Steven Jackson at PIT: Jackson always warrants a play as an RB2 option because of his high touch count, but owners are wishing and hoping if they’re expecting goal-line love. He may continue his balanced running/receiving output of the past few weeks in this contest. However, the Steelers have ceded the sixth-fewest fantasy points to running backs. There’s big risk here against a Steelers defense that looks to shake off a terrible road loss in front of the home crowd.
Ahmad Bradshaw at NYJ: Bradshaw remains in a timeshare with Brandon Jacobs, and myriad leg injuries have limited his availability during the practice week. I know that he scored the Giants’ lone touchdown in Week 15 against the Redskins. I’m still not giving him any better than a “Flex” rating against the Jets.
The Jets have allowed the 11th-fewest fantasy points to running backs.
Donald Brown vs. HOU: Brown has scored in three of his past four games, including the 80-yard sprint against the Titans seen around the world. Despite his recent surge in goal-line plunges, Brown has also been shut down in terms of yardage in two of those four games. He faces a daunting challenge on Thursday night against Houston, which has allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to running backs.
Week 16 RB Ninja Alerts
Kahlil Bell at GB: Bell topped 100 total yards and scored on a 25-yard reception from Caleb Hanie in his final game as the Chicago starter. I’ve said for weeks that he mimicked the skill set of Matt Forte well, and he certainly displayed those abilities in Week 15. Bell also logged more carries than Marion Barber, who is also dealing with a calf injury.
The Packers surrender nearly 130 total yards per game to running backs (0.6 touchdowns per game) and have been hurt by pass-catching runners. Opposing tailbacks have logged 89 receptions this season. That’s where Bell makes his impact against the Packers on Sunday night.
Lance Ball at BUF: Willis McGahee’s production has slowed down in recent weeks because of hamstring and knee injuries, thereby opening the door for Ball to assume a larger role. Ball logged 13 touches for 105 yards (64 rushing, including a 32-yard run) with a touchdown and a lost fumble against the Patriots in Week 15.
Even if McGahee is active (he’s been available during the practice week), I still expect Ball to record another double-digit touch count against the Bills. Buffalo has surrendered the third-most fantasy points to running backs.
Mike Tolbert at DET: Everyone’s favorite vulture has surged back onto the fantasy radar in the past three weeks (20 carries, including three touchdowns). He’s obviously not piling up yardage with Ryan Mathews running wild, but the Chargers have turned back to Tolbert near the goal line. Tolbert ranks as a high-end RB3 this week.
The Lions rate well statistically against the run, but teams have generally been thrust into shootouts with Detroit. I expect to see a balanced attack from San Diego and a close game that allows Tolbert to produce a double-digit touch count.
Jackie Battle vs. OAK: Battle sneaks onto the radar for a low-end RB option this weekend against the sieve-like Oakland run defense. He produced a 16-carry, 76-yard performance in the Chiefs’ 28-0 blowout win at Oakland in Week 7. The Raiders allow the seventh-most fantasy points to running backs (nearly 149 total yards with one touchdown per game).
Ricky Williams vs. CLE: Word broke Thursday afternoon that Anquan Boldin would be shut down for the duration of the regular season because of a knee issue. This was already a difficult spot for the Baltimore passing attack, so owners had started to turn an eye toward Williams. I’ll look for more handoffs to Rice and Williams in this contest, a workload to equal that of the first meeting between these teams. Williams carried the ball 16 times for 76 yards and scored in Week 13.
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