Marcus Mariota is going to make history on Saturday night in New York City, it's just a matter of how long a shadow his stiff-armed pose is going to cast.
The Oregon quarterback is set to become the 80th Heisman Trophy winner, which would make him his school's first recipient and the only Hawaii-born player to join the bronze fraternity.
But what will truly be worth watching is how sizable a victory we are about to witness as Mariota is joined by fellow finalists Melvin Gordon, the Wisconsin running back, and Alabama wide receiver Amari Cooper.
In terms of landslides, Reggie Bush, Charlie Ward and Troy Smith are the true measuring sticks.
While O.J. Simpson holds the record for the most first-place votes at 855 and the biggest point differential between first and second at 1,750, he did so in a year when there were 1,042 ballots. It's Florida State's Ward, the 1993 winner, who seized the greatest percentage of top spots on the ballot at 93.6, while Simpson barely cracks the top 10 in the regard (see below).
TOP PERCENTAGES OF FIRST-PLACE VOTES
Meanwhile, Bush has the most total points (2,541) and the highest percentage of possible points received at 91.7, though since his win has been vacated we'll instead go with Smith, who had 2,540 points and 91.6 of the possible points.
As great as Bush, Smith and Ward were, none of them were dealing with a 2,000-yard rusher though, which Mariota has in Gordon, whose 2,336 yards are fourth-most in NCAA Division I history. Plus, they were the best player on the No. 1 team at season's end, which Cooper, the Crimson Tide wide receiver, represents.
The guess here is that we're looking at a haul that's between 85-90 percent in regards to first-place votes. That there are only three finalists (that number is based on the natural break in points totals) likely means Mariota is far-and-away the top choice, but the sheer numbers Gordon put up are going to keep this from Simpson/Smith/Ward/Bush territory.
Here's how the voting should play out, and keep in mind this is based on past trends and analysis and not indicative of my own ballot, which the Heisman Trust does not allow us to disclose until after the announcement.
The most impressive bit of history with Mariota is that he should become the first Pac-division (Pac-8, Pac-10 or Pac-12) non-USC quarterback to win since Stanford's Jim Plunkett in 1970. Think about that: What John Elway (second in 1982) and fellow Cardinal Andrew Luck (runner-up in 2010 and '11) couldn't do, a three-star recruit who was the 34th-rated QB in the Class of 2011 is about to pull off. He is the Pac-12's all-time single-season leader in accounting for 53 touchdowns, five more than the last three dual-threat winners, Johnny Manziel, Robert Griffin III and Cam Newton averaged. Plus, after consecutive years of the Heisman award dealing with off-the-field concerns, it should come as a relief to everyone involved that no such transgressions have ever come up regarding the Ducks QB.
For those asking if I'll be releasing my #Heisman ballot, here's why the answer is no. pic.twitter.com/OMor5ecujH
— Cory McCartney (@coryjmccartney) December 8, 2014
His only hope is that a large number of voters subscribe to two-time winner Archie Griffin's voting decree that he casts a ballot after everyone has played the same number of games. The Big Ten Championship Game was an absolute disaster as Ohio State held him to 76 yards, which was the first time Gordon had been held below 122 since Sept. 6 when he had 38 against Western Illinois. That being said, the Badger has more rushing yards than 87 FBS programs and we should see Gordon surpass Larry Johnson, who was third in 2002, for the best finish for a 2,000-yard rusher (at the time of voting) since Ricky Williams' win in 1998.
That he's been able to rack up an SEC single-season record 115 catches and stands 85 yards from surpassing the league's yardage mark of 1,740 -- set by LSU's Josh Reed in 2001, who was also coached by Nick Saban -- in an era where the quarterbacks garner most of the attention speaks to Cooper's dominance. He's the first wide receiver to reach New York since Larry Fitzgerald in 2003, it seems unlikely that Cooper will be able to match the Pitt product, who was the runner-up. Regardless of how many points he gets, Cooper being at the ceremony guarantees that the Crimson Tide receiver will surpass Florida's Wes Chandler (10th in 1977) for the best finish by any SEC pass-catcher.
Follow Cory McCartney on Twitter at @coryjmccartney
