Heisman Forecast: Why we can't anoint Louisville's Lamar Jackson just yet
The path to New York is littered with warning signs to anyone to wants to anoint No. 2 Louisville's Lamar Jackson before we've even hit October.
In the past six seasons, Denard Robinson (2010), Geno Smith ('12), Marcus Mariota ('13, though he would win a year later) and Leonard Fournette ('15) appeared to be on a collision course with history, only to be denied.
Jackson could be different, with another shot at a marquee win next week against No. 5 Clemson -- and the reality that he and the Cardinals will be heavily favored in every game until that Nov. 17 date with sixth-ranked Houston -- and the fact that he's on pace for 5,508 yards (sixth-highest season in FBS history) and 72 touchdowns (nine more than Colt Brennan's 2006 record).
Ohio State's J.T. Barrett and Stanford's Christian McCaffrey remain very much in this race with back-loaded schedules that could steal attention from Jackson. But with Fournette bowing out, along with Florida State's Dalvin Cook and Clemson's Deshaun Watson looking unimpressive, Jackson has simply been more consistent and more dominant than anyone else.
It's been enough to own September. But we've seen where that gets you.
Before we look at the Forecaster's real-time ballot, here's where things stand in my virtual ballot.
The Tigers haven't won at Bobby Dodd Stadium since 2003, and a victory there would amount of a breakthrough for the program and a contenders in need of a performance breakthrough. The Gainesville, Ga., native will have a Thursday night prime time slot to do it in vs. unbeaten Georgia Tech, and he'll no doubt be eyeing a happier homecoming than the last time the teams met in Atlanta, when Watson left in the first quarter with a torn ACL. A year ago he threw for 265 yards and two scores vs. the Yellow Jackets, who are improved defensively, allowing 305 yards per game (26th). With No. 2 Louisville looming, Watson can build some momentum in a spotlight game.
As discussed in this space before, and to a much larger degree in this forthcoming book, the only hope a defensive player has is by being consistently involved in offense or special teams, all while putting up impressive numbers at their primary position. Check and check for Peppers, who had a career-high nine tackles and 204 all-purpose yards, highlighted by a 54-yard punt return for a TD vs. Colorado, and on the season has an FBS-best 9 1/2 tackles for loss. Lining up as a linebacker and defensive back, he's poised for a bid day against Penn State, which is 83rd in total offense (387.7), though taking another punt to the house would be a feat. The Nittany Lions are allowing an average of just one yard per return.
We're all talking about Lamar Jackson, but the Louisville QB has company in the 18-TD club in Mahomes, who leads the nation with 14 through the air. He also tops FBS in passing yards (1,493), passing yards per game (497.7) and total offense (543.7) and is third in pass efficiency (198.2). Mahomes is worth your attention, and this week against Kansas -- which is ninth vs. the pass (136.7), but has played just Rhode Island, Ohio and Memphis -- he figures to put up more monster stats. But it remains to be seen if the rest of the Red Raiders can back up his candidacy, having already lost to Arizona State with three ranked teams dotting the Big 12 schedule and a defense that's ranked 123rd (531.3 ypg). Since 1998, only three winners have come from teams that didn't reach double digits in wins in the regular season: Texas' Ricky Williams, Florida's Tim Tebow and Baylor's Robert Griffin III.
Where has last year's most electrifying player in college football gone? Cook was manhandled by Louisville and settled for 54 yards on 16 carries, and has yet to go over 100 yards rushing on the season. Dating back to the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl opposite Houston, that's a stretch of four games in which he's not reached the century mark, and in those game, Cook has averaged just 3.83 yards per carry and 65 yards a game. With South Florida (82nd vs. the run) and North Carolina (106th) in the next two weeks, the opportunities are there for the Seminole to end his drought, but the Heisman is no longer an option for Cook.
He hasn't been bad. On the contrary, he largely kept the Fighting Irish in their losses to Texas (292 yards and six TDs) and, most recently, Michigan State (358 yards and three scores), but he's been undone by a Notre Dame defense that is 102nd in total D (439.3), 94th in scoring (32), 84th vs. the pass (240.7) and 99th vs. the rush (198.7). He's basically where Mahomes could find himself, and Kizer and Co. still have No. 7 Stanford and No. 15 Miami to deal with.
Those 222 yards vs. North Carolina in the season opener are a distant memory, as Nicholls allowed Chubb just 80 yard son 20 carries, and Missouri -- which went into the matchup 101st vs. the rush (191) -- allowed Chubb to get 63 on 19 tries. It bodes well for him that Ole Miss is 115th against ground games (242.7) and was just burned for 334 by top-ranked Alabama. But Chubb, dominant Week 1 performance or not, is teetering on falling out of the Heisman conversation unless he can deliver this week against the No. 23 Rebels and then against No. 14 Tennessee.
Follow Cory McCartney on Twitter @coryjmccartney and Facebook. His book, 'Tales from the Atlanta Braves Dugout: A Collection of the Greatest Braves Stories Ever Told,' is out now, and 'The Heisman Trophy: The Story of an American Icon and Its Winners' will be released Nov. 22, 2016.
