The Heisman Moment has become a cliché, but like most good clichés, it's rooted in truth.
A singular play or game can define a campaign, a Heisman Moment can break open a tight race and a moment can get Luther Vandross singing (OK, he meant another kind of 'moment,' but you get the point). Think Desmond Howard and Charles Woodson's punt returns for touchdowns vs. Ohio State in 1991 and 1997, respectively; Eric Crouch's 95-yard TD run in 2001; Sam Bradford's flip in '08 and Johnny Manziel's win over Alabama last season, and on and on.
So when is this year's going to come, if at all?
We have already seen some strong entries, most notably Manziel's ridiculous scramble and pass vs. Alabama and Jameis Winston's performance against then-No. 3 Clemson. But ultimately, neither had the ability to vault said player into the forefront of the race.
This weekend could be ripe for a Heisman Moment with a three-day stretch of massive matchups as Thursday night sees Marcus Mariota and No. 2 Oregon face No. 6 Stanford and No. 5 Baylor's Bryce Petty takes on No. 12 Oklahoma; Saturday counters with No. 1 Alabama and AJ McCarron meeting 10th-ranked LSU.
Of course, there's also the chance that it doesn't come, that upsets reign and favorites' resumes take hits. In that scenario, it could wind up being a moment of a different sort for Winston, who in facing Wake Forest (4-5), could benefit from the chaos engulfing the other top candidates. Then there's Manziel and his seemingly impossible repeat hopes, which would also pick up steam.
Big games and big performances have defined the major players in this race, but no single weekend has seemed so pivotal in this Heisman race. One way or the other, the narrative of '13 should be written in Week 11. The only question is whether we'll get that touchstone moment.
Before we look at whose stock is rising and whose is falling, here's how the Forecaster's ballot would look if voting were today.
1. Marcus Mariota, QB Oregon, RS Soph.
2. Jameis Winston, QB Florida State, RS Fr.
3. Johnny Manziel, QB Texas A&M, RS Soph.
The schedule works out perfectly for McCarron as the only leading candidate with two top-10 teams in the last four weeks of the regular season -- this week's opponent, No. 10 LSU, and seventh-ranked Auburn -- not to mention a likely ranked foe if the Crimson Tide reach the SEC Championship Game. He's on pace for 3,025 yards and 26 TDs, which would be more yards and just as many scores as he had last season before the BCS title game. Those numbers would be a major step down from what we've come to expect from Heisman-winning QBs, with the last five averaging 4,500 yards and 47 TDs, but he stands as the safest pick in this race, a sentiment that will only build should Alabama continue its march toward a third straight national title -- and as McCarron finds more reasons to light up celebratory cigars.
Are Petty and his Bears for real? So far they've beaten just two teams with winning records, neither of which came from a power conference. But the degree of difficulty is about to increase exponentially. Thursday night's opponent, Oklahoma, represents the first of three Top-25 teams Baylor faces (along with No. 25 Texas Tech and No. 23 Oklahoma State) and it also happens to have the best pass defense (ninth in FBS) that Petty will see in the regular season. It's a major risk/reward matchup for Petty, who could either see his stock soar or he could be completely out of the race. Of course, there's a third scenario where running back Lache Seastrunk steals the spotlight, but for now, Petty stands as the Bears' best hope of a second trophy in three years.
He has powered the Bulldogs to 16th in the BCS Standings, putting them on target for an at-large bid as they're five spots ahead of ACC leader UCF. With a remaining slate of Wyoming (4-4), New Mexico (2-6) and San Jose State (5-3) -- teams that rank 107th, 116th and 93rd, respectively, in total defense -- the road is more than manageable. Second in FBS at 382.6 ypg, Carr will have gaudy stats to potentially go with a top-tier bowl game, but over the years crashing the BCS party has meant less and less for QBs. While Utah's Alex Smith ('04) and Hawaii's Colt Brennan ('07) were both finalists, five teams in five years have reached BCS games and not a one of them sent a player to the ceremony. That being said, Carr still has a strong shot at equaling his brother David, who was fifth in the voting in '01.
It's no fault of his own, and frankly, Winston remains one of the top two candidates heading into the first games of November. That being said, just as his Seminoles are likely to lose the No. 2 spot in the BCS and will need some help to reach the title game, Winston won't be aided with zero opponents over .500 left in the regular season. Chances are he's already heading to New York, but with Mariota, McCarron and Petty all facing highly ranked teams over the last five weeks, he's is in the difficult spot of hoping voters don't lose sight of him while the other challengers take the spotlight.
Jordan Lynch is second among all active players in rushing yards (3,573), but it may not be enough to even get him to the ceremony. (David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports)
Here's the thing with Lynch: He's arguably one of the most underrated weapons in the nation, ranking second among active players in rushing yards (3,573), is third in yards per rush (6.6) and fourth in rushing TDs (37) and 21-2 as a starter the last two seasons. But with Carr keeping Fresno State just ahead of Lynch's Huskies, who are 18th in the BCS and out of a big-money bowl without the Bulldogs stumbling, Lynch also remains behind Carr in the Heisman standings. It's just the reality that most voters won't have room for two non-BCS conference players on their ballots.
He continues to put up impressive numbers, throwing for 2,557 yards, 23 touchdowns and just two interceptions and he's completing passes at a 73.7 percent clip. Among all FBS passers, Bridgewater ranks third in pass efficiency (191.6), trailing only Petty (219.0) and Winston (201.1). But he's basically playing in the shadows with the Cardinals out of the national title mix, and for anyone still seeing him as a contender in this race, it will be harder to make a case for Bridgewater this week as he takes on 0-7 UConn and its 105th-ranked scoring defense.
