Heisman Forecast: Separation Saturday? Two massive games figure to impact Heisman race
The Heisman Trophy has always been a direct reflection of the era of which it's in, and now it -- fairly or not -- stands to be tied to the College Football Playoff picture. So it's no surprise that the race for the award figures to come that much more into focus thanks to two massive clashes in Week 3 that feature a quartet of contenders.
We've already said good-bye to one of the preseason favorites in LSU's Leonard Fournette -- more on that below -- and if keeping your team in the CFP hunt is part of the new criteria, the heat is on No. 3 Florida State's Dalvin Cook as he meets 10th-ranked Louisville's Lamar Jackson, and No. 3 Ohio State's J.T. Barrett vs. No. 14 Oklahoma's Baker Mayfield.
No Heisman is won in the first month of the season, just ask Mr. September, former Michigan's quarterback Denard Robinson about that. But this weekend could stand as a Separation Saturday of sorts in this trophy chase, especially for Mayfield who can't afford another setback after he and the Sooners fell to Houston.
Cook and Jackson can overcome bad performances with each still having No. 5 Clemson -- and last year's third-place finisher Deshaun Watson -- remaining on their schedules, and Louisville also takes on No. 6 Houston on Nov. 17. The Buckeyes also have two current Top-10 opponents (No. 9 Wisconsin and No. 4 Michigan), along with No. 12 Michigan State, so this isn't exactly an elimination day for them, but it figures to loom large as the early challengers jockey for position.
Before we dive into this week's risers and sliders, here's a real-time look at the Forecaster's ballot, virtual edition.
After averaging 140.9 yards per game last year, Cook has yet to break the 100-yard barrier this season. That being said, he did have 101 receiving yards to go along with those 91 rushing vs. Ole Miss and had just 11 carries in which he averaged 7.5 yards in the rout of Charleston Southern. He figures to loom large in PapaJohn Stadium, where he can take pressure off redshirt freshman QB Deondre Francois in his first real road test with the Seminoles. It won't be easy as the Cardinals are 23rd vs. the run (84.5 ypg), but he burned this same unit for 163 yards and two TDs rushing and another 60 yards receiving in last season's win in Tallahassee.
Remember him? It seems like it's been eons since we've seen last year's runner-up, with the Cardinal getting a week off after the opener. A date with USC doesn't look as appealing as it did before the Trojans were trounced by No. 1 Alabama, but this remains a strong defense and a big-name opponent for arguably the nation's most versatile weapon to exploit. Remember those 461 all-purpose yards he had vs. the Trojans last year in the Pac-12 title game? This is just the beginning of an interesting stretch for Stanford, which follows USC with UCLA, No. 8 Washington and Notre Dame in a five-week span.
Growing up in Texas, Barrett long had dreams of suiting up for Longhorns and taking on Oklahoma in the annual Red River Rivalry in Dallas. He'll get his wish (sort of) vs. a Sooners team that struggled to contain Houston QB Greg Ward (321 yards and two TDs) in the opener. While facing a team led by Tom Herman (the former Buckeyes offensive coordinator) would seem to give Oklahoma an edge, but the difference is Barrett is a much bigger factor in the run game (22 carries so far three TDs) and he figures to torch the Sooners defense and put himself back at the forefront of this conversation.
Without question, Jackson has been the most impressive player in the country through two weeks of the season. The 13 TDs he's responsible for are more than 120 FBS schools and in beating Syracuse he set an ACC yardage record (610) and was one yard on the ground shy of becoming the first player in FBS history with at least 400 passing and 200 rushing in the same game. All that being said, this is a tough Seminoles defense even without All-American-caliber safety Derwin James. Jackson will get his yards, but can he get the Cardinals past DeMarcus Walker and Co? That, not numbers, are what his campaign needs.
As discussed last week, he wasn't bad vs. Houston, but his campaign needs a jolt that isn't likely to come against Ohio State. It's key that the Buckeyes keep Mayfield from getting out of the pocket, and that was where Houston found its greatest success against the QB. He was sacked five time and ran 13 times for minus-1 yard and fumbled. Expect that to be a template the Buckeyes use to give him fits.
This is a storyline that has been discussed multiple times in this space and at another shop where the Forecaster honed his craft. If you miss a game, you're all but done. Just twice since World War II has anyone missed a single game and still won -- USC's Charles White in 1979 and Florida State's Charlie Ward in 1993 -- with Fournette and the Tigers having already suffered a loss to Wisconsin, his sitting vs. Jacksonville State largely sealed his fate.
Follow Cory McCartney on Twitter @coryjmccartney and Facebook. His book, 'Tales from the Atlanta Braves Dugout: A Collection of the Greatest Braves Stories Ever Told,' is out now, and 'The Heisman Trophy: The Story of an American Icon and Its Winners' will be released Nov. 22, 2016.
