The Heisman Trophy, like a teenage girl, is a slave to trends.
In the 1970s and early 80s, running backs were its elephant bell bottoms and leg warmers, winning 11 straight times -- marking the longest run by any position in the award's history -- and in the 2000s, quarterbacks have been all the rage. They've now taken 11 of 13 trophies, including the last three.
It doesn't look like it's going to end, either.
Quarterbacks are dominating nearly every watchman's running list (including the one below) and sports book Bovada lists Baylor's Lache Seastrunk with the best odds of any back (20/1) and he's eighth overall. Oregon's De'Anthony Thomas and Alabama's T.J. Yeldon are among those tied for 10th (33/1), while Georgia's Todd Gurley and Miami's Duke Johnson are 15th (50/1).
Frankly for RBs, the prospects may be darker than they've ever been.
Mark Ingram's 2009 victory is the position's only one since 1999 with Reggie Bush's '05 win being vacated and last season Kenjon Barner's ninth-place finish was the fourth voting in history where a back wasn't among the top five, joining 1964, 2001 and 2008.
Each of those instances were followed by either a win (Mike Garrett in '65 and Ingram in '09) or a finalist (Larry Johnson in '01) and neither seems all that possible with the focus on passers, or more to the point dual threat QBs. In another trend they've now claimed three straight and four of six.
Considering that the top candidates either have a more likely candidate on their own team (Gurley, Seastrunk, Thomas and Yeldon) or in either voting region (Johnson in the deep South district), every indication is that RBs will miss out on the trophy for a fourth straight year, leaving the position one shy of its longest drought ever.
But as fashion has taught us, everything comes back around -- we see you, hi-top fade -- and so too will running backs.
Before we break down this week's Forecast, here's a look at race's leaders after Week 6:
1. Marcus Mariota, QB Oregon, RS Soph.
2. Tajh Boyd, QB Clemson, RS Sr.
3. Aaron Murray, QB Georgia, RS Sr.
It's been 13 years since the Seminoles' Chris Weinke gave the ACC its last win, with C.J. Spiller's sixth-place in '09 the conference's best finish in the years that have followed. With Boyd among the front runners and Winston now firmly in the mix after torching then-No. 25 Maryland in Week 6, it's going to take a disaster for the ACC to not have its best result post-Weinke. If Boyd's Tigers can avoid a slip up in a potential trap game against Boston College, the league will get a showdown of unbeaten Clemson vs. unbeaten Florida State on Oct. 19, a game that has the potential to vault the winning QB into the lead.
He's already the leader in this race in passing for 1,358 yards and 14 scores and running for another 338 and seven scores, but at this point, Mariota has yet to be tested. He's faced an FCS team and three defenses ranked 79th or worse and the best D he's seen is 28th Virginia and its 2-3. That all changes as he and the Ducks head to No. 16 Washington to face the nation's 10th-ranked defense (281.8 yards per game), which is allowing 14.8 points (11th). It's the beginning of a defining four-game stretch, as Oregon faces No. UCLA on Oct. 26 and No. 5 Stanford on Nov. 7, with Washington State sprinkled in. Dominate those matchups and it may be hard for anyone to catch Mariota.
Lynch has powered the Huskies back into the Top 25 at 23rd by averaging 329.2 yards per game, including 338 last week against Kent State and those numbers could balloon over the coming weeks. Northern Illinois faces Akron (which has lost 18 straight MAC games) on Saturday, followed by, Central Michigan (2-4), Eastern Michigan (1-4) and UMass (0-5). As previously stated, it's highly unlikely that Lynch or anyone else from outside of the sport's power structure can ever win the Heisman again. But with Lynch and Fresno State's Derek Carr, who is second in FBS at 384.4 ypg, it's about time we find a way to honor the non-BCS conference's best. How about a "heisman Trophy" (note the lowercase 'H')?
Mettenberger didn't ruin his chances in the Tigers' Sept. 28 loss at Georgia, but it's a game that, had LSU won, could have moved him from intriguing candidate to a major part of the conversation. Instead, Mettenberger has already suffered one setback and now he has to face arguably the nation's best defense with No. 17 Florida, which is allowing 217 yards (second) and 12.4 points (fourth) a game and already held Miami's Stephen Morris largely in check (162 yards, two TDS and an interception). With matchups with Alabama's AJ McCarron and Texas A&M's Johnny Manziel still to come, Mettenberger needs a big day vs. Gators corner Loucheiz Purifoy and Co. and that may be asking too much.
The nation's leader in passing yards per game (403.6), total offense (2,018 yards) and TD passes (21), Mannion is a respectable 15thin pass efficiency (166.0) and has thrown just two interceptions in 238 attempts. Mannion's backers have supplied more than a few emails to the Forecasters' inbox wondering why he isn't he generating more buzz. His numbers are impressive, but they've come against an FCS squad (in a loss, no less), one FBS team with a winning record (Utah) and three others who have combined to go 4-10 in Hawaii, San Diego State and Colorado. Do that vs. No. 5 Stanford on Oct. 26, No. 16 Washington on Nov. 23 and No. 2 Oregon on Nov. 29 and then we may have the makings of a contender.
It's not just, as written above, that running backs are now playing behind in this race, it's a number of issues with Gurley. First and foremost, the Bulldogs QB, Murray, has emerged as arguably the SEC's top threat for a fifth win in seven years. Then, there's the fact that Gurley hasn't played, sitting out last weekend's overtime win against Tennessee with an ankle injury he suffered the week before vs. LSU. Now, he's doubtful for Saturday's game with No. 25 Missouri and as we've discusses before, missing one game hurts and campaign but more than that all but brings an end to it.
