Heisman Forecast: Prescott wins Halfway Heisman; Mariota, Petty rise
First, a confession.
Of late, the results haven't been pretty in handing out the Halfway Heisman. In 2010, it went to Denard Robinson, who finished sixth and the last two recipient -- Geno Smith in '12 and Marcus Mariota last season -- didn't even crack the top 10. Only Robert Griffin III in '11 went on to turn the midseason award into actual hardware.
Dak Prescott is the clear choice at this year's midpoint, and while history shows Mississippi State would be wise not to start plotting out where in the Leo Seal Jr. Football Complex it's going to store the Heisman Trophy, it currently looks like the award is Prescott's to lose.
He's had an undeniable impact in helping pen the best story in college football as the Bulldogs went from unranked in Week 4 to No. 1 behind three straight wins over top-10 opponents. Prescott is ninth in the nation in total offense at 342.3 yards per game, second in points responsible for (138) and at 10th in pass efficiency (165.6) and 31st in rushing yards per (96.0), he's the only FBS passer to rank in the top 10 in efficiency and top 100 in average rushing yards.
As great as he's been, he's also benefitted from other contenders' misfortunes. Mariota took a step back with Oregon's loss to Arizona, Georgia's Todd Gurley is on an indefinite suspension and the circus that continues to surround Florida State's Jameis Winston really ended his repeat bid before it even started.
With two more highly ranked opponents on the schedule -- No. 7 Alabama and No. 3 Ole Miss -- Prescott could have a resume unlike any winner before him (as detailed here). But none of this is to say he doesn't have serious competition.
Mariota is rebounding, Baylor's Bryce Petty still has No. 11 Oklahoma, No. 15 Oklahoma State and No. 14 Kansas State ahead of him, and Everett Golson's stock could soar should he lead Notre Dame past No. 2 Florida State this weekend.
But all that can wait. This is a coronation and while there's no trip to New York, no cameras and no place in history, the Halfway Heisman is your's, Dak Prescott.
Before we dive into the players who are poised to rise and fall this week, here's you're real-time look at how the voting would likely stack up after Prescott:
He'll challenge the modern attendance standard (more on that later with Gurley), but Petty threw himself back into the mix with 510 yards and six touchdowns against TCU, both of which were career highs. It's a stat line that becomes that much more impressive considering the Horned Frogs entered with the nation's seventh-ranked defense and Petty proceeded to carve them up for 230 more yards than they averaged coming in and 201 more than then-No. 4 Oklahoma through the air the week before against TCU. As previously mentioned, Petty's remaining schedule could be a boost, especially if Prescott stumbles. While Prescott and the Bulldogs' dominance helped make him the midseason front-runner amid Gurley and Winston's troubles and Mariota's bad week, Petty could wind up being one of the biggest beneficiary, second only to ....
Needing to rebound to stay in the hunt, Mariota responded against UCLA and now has a very manageable road ahead of him with just two ranked opponents -- No. 23 Stanford and No. 20 Utah -- along with a potential date with No. 22 USC in the Pac-12 title game. Amazingly, amid the Ducks' woeful offensive line play, Mariota has yet to thrown an interception in his 155 attempts this season. The nation's pass efficiency leader at 193.7, Mariota is also the only player in the top 32 in FBS to have not thrown a pick. A lack of truly marquee games, which Prescott and Petty both have, could wind up hurting him, though on the flip side Mariota already has one of the year's most impressive wins and one that gets better by the week as No. 8 Michigan State keeps rising.
His three interceptions in the first half of the season opener against Boise State screamed anything but Heisman, but the Rebels' ascension has made Wallace something of a viable threat. It's still difficult to get used to seeing a steady Wallace -- he entered the season with 27 picks to 40 touchdowns in his career -- week in and week out, but he has seemingly turned the corner. Make-or-break games for his hopes (and that of Ole Miss) remain with No. 6 Auburn and top-ranked Mississippi State in November, but with 1,700 yards and 15 TDs through six games he is on pace to challenge Eli Manning's school records of 3,600 yards set in 2003 and his 31 scores from '01.
Las Vegas' favorite to win a week ago, Gurley is now the reason for your seemingly weekly reminder that it's almost a death knell to miss even one game in a Heisman campaign (its only been done twice since 1943). Gurley has already done so while he's held out amid an alleged violation of NCAA rules for receiving pay for autographs, and barring the completely unexpected, he'll be out again this week against Arkansas (and maybe for the remainder of the season). That amounts to an unfortunate end for the player that appeared to be Prescott's most logical challenger with the potential they could meet in the SEC Championship Game. Days ago it would have seem tough to argue a Heisman ceremony that didn't include Gurley, but now it seems certain Georgia will continue its drought, with its last finalist coming in 1992 with Garrison Hearst.
Hill came from basically out of nowhere and he's in danger of falling back into obscurity in the Heisman conversation. While he threw for 401 yards against Ole Miss -- his highest since the Aggies record 511 in the opener vs. South Carolina -- and hit on a season-best 79.3 percent of his passes, Hill also threw two interceptions and has tossed five in the past two games, both losses. Now, he has to face the SEC's No. 1 defense in Alabama, a game that has the potential to knock Texas A&M out of the Top 25. There remains one big positive with Hill: his 2,511 yards through seven games put him on pace for 4,304 yards, which would break Johnny Manziel's 2013 record of 4,114 and give Hill the 41st highest single-season total since 1956.
Cooper is case in point of the problems his position creates with the Heisman. When the Crimson Tide offense was rolling along, Cooper was garnering serious attention as he was off to the fastest start in SEC history with 52 catches through the first five games. But his 100-yard game streak came to an end in the loss to Ole Miss and he followed it with just two catches for 22 yards against Arkansas. Cooper may well win the Bilentikoff Award as the nation's best wide receiver, but pass-catchers are already playing from behind as far as the Heisman's concerned, especially, if like Cooper, they aren't involved in the kick return game. On a positive note, Cooper keeps climbing up the Alabama charts and is 37 receptions from passing D.J. Hall's 194 for the program's all-time record.
