Heisman Forecast: Gurley or Mariota, who has best shot at trophy?
As much as it can be in mid-September, this Heisman Trophy hunt is a two-man race.
Georgia's Todd Gurley and Oregon's Marcus Mariota have pulled away, and while defending winner Jameis Winston remains a factor, reality, history and his continued off-the-field troubles say something very different regarding the Florida State quarterback's chances.
It's a running back (Gurley) vs. a quarterback (Mariota), the two positions that have won the award more than any other, winning a combined 73 times -- RBs have delivered 41 of those trophies. But as this season progresses, which one of them stands the best chance of claiming the stiff-armed idol?
With 329 yards through two games, Gurley is on pace to run for 1,974 yards, which would break Herschel Walker's single-season SEC record of 1,891 yards, which was set 23 years before Gurley was even born.
But should the Bulldogs reach the SEC Championship Game, and Gurley maintain that same production rate, he could become the league's first 2,000-yard back with 2,138.
He'll also have the schedule on his side, with No. 18 Missouri and No. 5 Auburn, not to mention improved Arkansas, Florida and Kentucky. Even in in Georgia's loss to then-No. 24 South Carolina, Gurley didn't hurt his chances, running for 131 yards.
Of course, it's Mariota that fits the mold of what we've come to expect from a winner in this era, though at this stage his numbers are currently behind.
Granted, he sat out the second half vs. South Dakota and was done in the third quarter against Wyoming, but at 320.7 yards per game, he's in line for 3,842 yards, 835 off the average of the last four winning QBs. He would hit 4,162 should the Ducks make the Pac-12 title game, but that's still 114 yards less than Winston has last season, which was the lowest output of this string of QB victors.
What could also hamper Mariota's hopes is the Pac-12. No. 12 UCLA remains unbeaten, but hasn't appeared to be the College Football Playoff contender many envisioned, and No. 16 Stanford suffered a loss to USC, which turned around and lost to unranked Boston College on the road.
Still, the Ducks have a clearer path to a likely playoff berth than the Bulldogs, who will need help just to reach the SEC finale. That ultimately gives Mariota a slight edge, but the reputation of the conference could boost Gurley's accomplishments, especially if he makes a run at Walker's record (if not more).
The assumptions could blow up before our eyes, but after four weeks, Gurley and Mariota are positioned to make things very, very interesting for the next three months.
Before we look at the players who are poised to rise and fall in the race, here's a look how things would line up if the voting we held today.
Hill is generating some serious buzz, and it's not outside the realm of reason to think that -- a la Jordan Lynch last season -- he can earn an invitation to New York should he and the 21st-ranked Cougars' go undefeated, or at least challenge for it. While it would probably take the top contenders slipping away for him to win, Hill looks like he's here to stay in his race and can continue to gain support with a strong game against Virginia's stout defense Saturday.
Batteries! They sent batteries! Nebraska rolled out of one of the more memorable Heisman trinkets when they sent out a pack of eight AA batteries -- a nod to his initials and uniform number -- with the running back's photo on them. Tenth in the nation in rushing with 396 yards, Abdullah will get an uptick in competition after seeing Florida Atlantic, McNeese State and Fresno State as the Cornhuskers host Miami, which is eighth in total defense (259.7 yards per game) and 16th against the rush (82.7). He and the Huskers' biggest test is two games away in No. 11 Michigan State, but the Hurricanes should present a strong challenge.
He's surpassed Baylor's Bryce Petty in Las Vegas' eyes, going from 20/1 odds to 12/1 (Petty is at 14/1) after a 308-yard performance in the win over Tennessee. Knight will remain in his race as long as the Sooners are playoff contenders and the coming weeks present interesting opportunities. Alabama's Blake Sims threw for 250 yards on Oklahoma's opponent for this week, West Virginia, and then Knight and Co. face TCU, which is No. 6 vs. the pass.
From @Huskers, it's a box of Ameer Abdullah batteries. Unsure if like batteries you get shocked if you lick him. pic.twitter.com/kG6LEST3MP
— Cory McCartney (@CoryMC_FOX) September 12, 2014
We've been told for months that Prescott can be a dark horse contender in this race and that the Bulldogs could take the next step and challenge for an SEC West crown. Prescott -- who has thrown for 696 yards and nine TDs and run for 273 and two more scores -- and the Bulldogs can take a step forward in both regards Saturday when they take on No. 8 LSU. But the Tigers look stout again on D, ranking third in FBS and this has the potential to be the beginning of a slide for player and team as the Bulldogs get No. 6 Texas A&M and No. 5 Auburn after the Bayou Bengals.
Cato's numbers are expectedly strong, as he's 12th in FBS with 953 yards and has already tossed nine touchdowns, and last week joined Chad Pennington as the only Thundering Herd QBs to reach 100 TDs in their careers. But with the rise of Hill, and East Carolina's Shane Carden, Cato is playing from behind with it unlikely that multiple non-Power 5 players can wage serious candidacies. He's also not getting any help from a schedule that has just two FBS schools remaining with winning records.
