Heisman Forecast: Can Big Ten hopefuls overcome league's image? Prescott, Cooper rise
In the eight years since Ohio State's Troy Smith won the Big Ten's last Heisman Trophy, the conference has been resigned to also-ran status in the award's voting.
Wisconsin's Montee Ball, who was fourth in 2011, is the league's only player to finish higher than fifth post-Smith and overall, the Big Ten has had just seven players in the top 10 since '07.
By comparison, the SEC had 16, followed by the Big 12 and Pac-12 with 12 each and even the non-BCS/Power 5 schools had five more than the Big Ten. Only the ACC trailed with five in that span.
That brings us to this season, as the beleaguered conference has two running backs -- Nebraska's Ameer Abdullah and Wisconsin's Melvin Gordon -- and a quarterback -- Michigan State's Connor Cook -- in the mix. But it also has an image problem, going 9-29 vs. Top-25 teams from the ACC, Big 12, Pac-12 and SEC since 2010, including 1-4 this year.
The ACC overcame its own issues last year, producing the Heisman winner, Florida State's Jameis Winston, and another finalist in Boston College RB Andre Williams. The difference though, is thy were the best player on the best team in the nation in Winston and a 2,000-yard rusher with Williams.
Following the ACC's lead is daunting. Cook came up short in his biggest opportunity of the season in a road loss to No. 2 Oregon, and while Abdullah and Gordon are both pacing to make a run at 2,000 yards, is there enough opportunities to have defining games along the way?
Abdullah's 19th-ranked Cornhuskers get Cook and the Spartans on Saturday in Lincoln, and he'll face Gordon on Nov. 14 in Camp Randall. While Michigan State hosts No. 20 Ohio State on Nov. 8, those are the only ranked opponents on the regular-season schedule for the Big Ten's hopefuls.
While candidates from the Pac-12 and SEC are seeing top-tier teams at a more consistent basis, the Big Ten's makeup could prove costly in their campaigns.
Before we look at the players that are poised to rise and fall in the Heisman race this week, here's how the contenders stack up through five weeks.
Few candidate have a better opportunity to shoot up watch lists over the coming weeks than Prescott. Having already starred in a win over then-No. 8 LSU, he and the Bulldogs face No. 6 Texas A&M on Saturday at home, then have No. 5 Auburn a week later in Starkville. It's hard to imagine Mississippi State getting through that gauntlet and not having Prescott figure prominently in those wins. Texas A&M's defense has improved since last year, jumping from 109th nationally in total D to 54th. But it remains a unit that struggles against the run, allowing 156.8 yards per game, and Prescott has established himself as the SEC's best combination of a runner/thrower, leading all conference QBs in career rushing TDs (20) and yards (1,325) and is averaging 335.5 yards per game (12th in FBS).
Dominating performances against so-so defenses in West Virginia and Florida helped to get Cooper a rare level of attention for a wide receiver when it comes to this award. He can take it to another level should he have the same kind of success -- the junior is the nation's leader in receiving yards per game (163.8) and is second in receptions per (10.8) and yards (655) -- against what is currently the highest-ranked defense the Crimson Tide will see this season. No. 11 Ole Miss is sixth vs. the pass (133.5) and has given up just one TD through the air. With the way Alabama presses the run double-teaming Cooper isn't much of an option, and with and how coordinator Lane Kiffin has worked to move him around the field, Cooper is difficult to keep track of.
This is more of an up, and then down pick. The Cougars' dual-threat star has a nice stage to continue building buzz on Friday night against Utah State, but the question is, how much longer will that be the case? BYU follows a nationally-televised game against the Aggies with another in facing UCF on Oct. 9 in primetime. After that, the Cougars have just two games (Oct. 24 vs. Boise State and Nov. 1 at Middle Tennessee State) that are even currently slated to be shown outside BYUtv. That's a problem as higher profile candidates keep building their resumes in higher profile games. It's imperative that Hill take advantage of the next two weeks and keep building on that 326 yards per game (18th nationally) before he's taking on the likes of Middle Tennessee and Savannah State.
If you consider these upcoming SEC West clashes as elimination games, Hill has to fall is Saturday's opposing QB, Prescott, rises. The Bulldogs defense has been giving up plenty of yards, especially through the air -- they rank 121st at 319.0 per game -- but are as bend-but-don't-break as it gets, allowing just 16.5 points (17th) and have the country's top red-zone defense. Mississippi State also has arguably the best defensive player Hill has faced to this point in pass rusher Preston Smith (five tackles for loss and three sacks) and can feast on QBs mistakes, picking off six passes already. Hill's numbers may still look strong given the Bulldogs' track record this season, but he'll be looking up at Prescott in the Heisman race.
He's been nothing short of spectacular after a year away, including last weekend's win over Syracuse in which Golson set a Fighting Irish record for consecutive completions (he was 11 ahead of the previous mark of 14). But who has he had these massive games against? Three of Notre Dame's opponents are below .500 (Rice, Michigan and Purdue), with only the Orange even at this point. The Irish host No. 14 Stanford on Saturday, a game that could either lend credence to Golson's early work or render it a mirage against lackluster opposition. The guess here is it's the latter, as the Cardinal have the nation's top pass D (74.0 ypg) and have given up just one TD in four games.
As stated a week ago, Knight's stock was slipping as the Sooners leaned on its running game against West Virginia. Now, he'll see a top-tier defense in No. 25 TCU, which is fourth in passing yards allowed (127.0). Should Bob Stoops and coordinator Josh Heupel finally take the reigns off and let Knight run, it could add a wrinkle that can take the heat off the passing game. But if Knight is still being used as a pocket passer, it could be troublesome given with the Horned Frogs fourth in sacks (4.3 per game), led by James McFarland's three.
