MIAMI -- The storyline to start this NBA season seemed as certain as it did sensational: The two-time defending champion Los Angeles Lakers and the Big Three-fueled Miami Heat were on a season-long collision of greatness meant to culminate in a historic NBA Finals.
So confident were the Heat, they threw a parade-like show at the start of their season. LeBron James talked about winning multiple championships. Analysts and insiders talked of a record-breaking number of wins.
What a beautiful thing a storyline can be.
What a sobering thing reality can be.
Because deep into this season -- and after struggles, trials and tribulations for both teams -- a new storyline has emerged.
That the Lakers are just where everyone expected them to be. And the Miami Heat are anything but.
"At this time, we can't run away from challenges," Dwyane Wade said the day before a Thursday night Lakers-Heat showdown. "This is the biggest challenge at this point, playing the defending champions when they feel they've hit their mark. Now they're playing basketball like everyone knew the Lakers would. Especially at this time of the year they're playing great basketball and we're not playing great basketball."
Indeed not, but it's not the losing streak - five games and counting for Miami - that separates the Heat from this Lakers team or last year's Celtics team. Both of those squads endured trouble and stretches of bad play without finding themselves where the Heat are today: Doubting themselves.
It's one thing for everyone else to think you can't do it. It's another entirely to believe it yourself. And for Miami, it feels a lot like the latter.
"I don't think we've addressed the problem yet," Chris Bosh said after Sunday's loss to the Bulls. "We have to find the problem first."
"Frankly," Spoelstra said after Tuesday night's loss to the Portland Trail Blazers, "we don't have a lot of answers on how to get over this hump."
These are not the words of warriors who have lost the battle but believe they'll win the war. These are not words of confident men who like what they see when they look in the mirror.
Simply, these are not the words of winners.
No wonder guys were crying in the locker room this week.
No wonder Bosh vented his frustration outside the team ethic Tuesday when he called out his team's schemes and seemingly his teammates' appreciation of him during a postgame talk about how he needed to start getting the ball in the paint.
It was an excuse-laden, feel-sorry-for-myself performance that befits someone already trying to figure out how to explain away his failings. By the time Bosh tried to put the onus for his comments on himself Wednesday, it was too late.
His teammates were annoyed, his coach angry, the media and fans all too aware of how out of sorts they all are.
Spoelstra, who has his own problems after revealing Crygate this week and then blaming the media for it, was nonplussed.
"I think our minds were cluttered last night," he said. "Today, it wasn't about talk. It was about working and practicing."
Which sounds a lot like: Those comments were stupid. How about we shut up and get back to basketball.
And about Bosh specifically wanting the ball in the paint more often so he could be a big man?
"We need more paint opportunities, not just from Chris, but from all of our guys working together," he said.
Sounds a lot like: This isn't just about you, Chris.
Yep, this is a team in freefall not because they're losing but because they've lost the confidence that this is a fluke. They've lost their swagger.
The Lakers could struggle for long stretches this season (which they have) and look at the bling on their fingers for confirmation of what they're capable of. Ditto for last year's Celtics team, which stumbled to the finish line of the regular season only to turn it on in the playoffs and reach the Finals.
But to compare those teams and their struggles to the Heat's woes misses the larger point.
The problem isn't that teams that struggle in the regular season never fix it in the postseason.
It's that those who do fix it believe deeply that they will. Those who fix it trade in confidence even when -- especially when -- things get rough.
That's the Lakers and the Celtics, absolutely.
But Miami?
No.
Miami has Wade and LeBron James saying the right things about Spoelstra - acts of maturity - while, if you listen closely, sounding a lot like stars who have lost confidence in the man.
Miami has Bosh bashing game plans, making excuses and sounding again like he doesn't belong.
Miami has players crying in the locker room after regular-season losses.
These aren't what Alpha teams do. It's what Beta teams do.
Alphas strut. Betas walk. Alphas ooze confidence, greatness, arrogance. Betas ooze little if anything, trading more in calm indifference than cocksure certainty. Alphas shrug off hardship because they don't think it says a damn thing about them. Betas sure look like it's getting to them.
The Celtics and Lakers are Alphas.
The Heat are Betas.
Can this change?
Of course it can. Men and women morph into the adults they become over time. Some grow and adjust. Some become better people. Some, worse. Time takes its toll on all, and in that time change can be frequent.
But to expect anyone, no matter how gifted or potentially great, to be their fullest self at an early age is unrealistic. Same goes for sports teams.
Same goes for asking the Heat to carry so soon the same mantle during times of true crisis as the Celtics or Lakers.
So when Miami asks it of itself with preseason celebrations, live television spectacles, silly roars of joy and serious plans for multiple titles, the pressure only mounts.
Maybe Miami can and will grow into a great and powerful team that rewrites record books and strikes awe into the hearts of the opposition. One confident, defiant, destined and strong.
But that will almost certainly take time.
"I've always referred to, historically, the '68 Lakers that had Elgin Baylor, Jerry West and Wilt Chamberlain, three of the greatest scorers that ever played the game," Lakers coach Phil Jackson said. "It took them four years to win a championship with that team. I don't expect this Miami (team) will take that long, but it took a while.
"They were a very strong team and they played very well, but at the very end they lost a couple games in the Finals that cost them the opportunity to win a championship."
Jackson is also saying this thing isn't easy.
Winning NBA championships is hard. Carrying the weight of great expectations is hard. Having historically great scorers on the same team and hoping that alone will mean instant chemistry and results is hard.
The storyline to open this season was a sensational one. And who knows? Maybe Miami will find its inner villain, its confidence, its swagger again, and shock everyone.
But more likely is what we're seeing now: that the burden is too much, the roster is wrong, the edges are fraying and the promised rings are still a ways off.
Because right now, it's the Lakers who are playing like champions.
And it's the Heat who are divided, ill-tempered, ill-fitting, out of sorts - and who do not have championship battles and victories to fall back on.
Lakers vs. Heat.
Months ago it was the ultimate matchup.
Today it's a reminder of just how much separates two supremely scrutinized teams.
You can follow Bill Reiter on Twitter.
