A grind house divided cannot stand. Well, it couldn’t stand for longer than one playoff round last season.
But the grinding Grizzlies of Memphis have bullied their way into an NBA Western Conference finals date with the San Antonio Spurs this season, and they seem capable of barging into an even wider spotlight.
Yeah, playing the Russell Westbrook-free Oklahoma City Thunder in the second round certainly bumped the odds in their favor. Completely embracing that grinder identity, however, also has been a huge factor.
And we can help define this embrace as follows: the removal of Rudy Gay and his shot-clock-murdering one-on-one journeys.
But is the Memphis rise simply explained as an analytics-based jettisoning of a high-usage player (Gay) for greater exploitation of the Grizzlies’ considerable low-post power?
Well, sort of. It also seemed to be the best way to stay out of luxury-tax jeopardy and still win games.
“It helped them streamline, if you will, what they do and provided greater clarity of everyone’s role,” an advance scout for another NBA team said when asked if the key to the Grizzlies' success was the removal of Gay. “It put more emphasis on their level of inside strength (that) few, if any, teams have.
“When the trade first happened, a lot of us wondered if they would have enough inside-outside balance to be as good as they’d been.”
While numbers often talk you into a metrics-infused coma instead of flat-out lying, they have informed us that any hypothetical decrease in offensive clout without Gay has not occurred.
The Grizzlies actually were 0.6 points more efficient per 100 possessions this season after shipping Gay to Toronto; through two playoff rounds, Memphis is producing 105.5 points per 100 compared to the 99.6 it managed with Gay over seven games in a first-round loss last season.
It also should be noted that veteran small forward Tayshaun Prince — acquired in the Gay trade — has made 3-pointers at a slightly more successful, space-creating rate (in fewer attempts) than his predecessor.
The scoring difference between the two has more than made up for by higher, more effective usage from point guard Mike Conley and Marc Gasol. With greater emphasis on the “Horns” alignment in half-court sets, Gasol — working as a mid-range dead-eye and slick passer — has operated on pick-and-pop maneuvers that prevent him from infringing upon the low-post territory of matchup nightmare Zach Randolph.
Adding Prince has given coach Lionel Hollins one more committed perimeter defender — along with Conley and elite stopper Tony Allen — and helped Memphis win 14 of 15 games at one point after some initial post-trade stumbles.
With even more momentum generated from playoff victories over the Los Angeles Clippers and OKC, the Grizzlies now meet the still-kickin’ Spurs.
Just two years ago, Memphis was in a similar predicament — taking on a historically rich San Antonio team without Gay. And the Grizzlies managed to win that series in six, taking a huge opening step by prevailing in Game 1 on the road while Spurs guard Manu Ginobili was out.
“It’s going to be a big man’s series,” Hall of Fame-bound Spurs post man Tim Duncan said of the 2013 event.
Well, it was pretty big-man oriented in 2011; unfortunately for San Antonio, Duncan, who made 15 of 25 shots in the first two games of that series, was only 18 of 44 in the last four.
“People were ready to bury him then,” our scout said of Duncan. “I advise against that in this series. But he’ll need help from (Tiago) Splitter, who should be able to do some work against Randolph.”
Through 10 postseason games this season, Duncan is giving the Spurs 18.7 points and 9.2 rebounds per game. But against the tag-team efforts of Golden State bigs Andrew Bogut and Festus Ezeli, he shot just 43 percent against the Warriors.
Randolph’s meager defensive chops aren’t much concern for Duncan, but in Gasol — voted NBA Defensive Player of the Year by the fourth estate — he does have a formidable match.
It should be pretty crusty all over, with Memphis possibly using Allen to corral Spurs point guard Tony Parker during crucial interludes.
Memphis, which played at the slowest pace among all NBA teams this season, will open the series in San Antonio, where the Spurs check in as the sixth-fastest squad. But coach Gregg Popovich’s team always has taken pride in playing whatever style is required to win.
While Parker will attempt to set a quicker tempo, it’s more difficult to speed up teams in the NBA than at any other level of basketball. The offensive skill level of players in this league scares off coaches from using the shot clock, extending defenses and taking more risks than they already do while doubling the post or helping against dribble penetration.
So expect plenty of grind-house moments in both venues.
“It’s going to be a rough one,” Duncan said after the Spurs erased the Warriors on Thursday. “If you thought this series was physical, it’s going to turn up about 10 notches.”
