DETROIT -- Sorry to tell you this, because I see what you see -- the Tigers are hard to watch -- but history would look at how alarmed you are and say. . .
"What's the big deal? They're often this bad at this time of year."
You might be reluctant to agree, preferring instead to say "I don't care what history says, I just care about now."
And that would be understandable. It's been brutal baseball to watch lately, almost a total breakdown during the Tigers' seven-game losing streak.
But it is true all the same. They are often bad this time of year.
Not always this bad, granted. But far from good.
And here are the numbers to prove it.
Any claims, about any season, that it's still early always end at the 54-game mark, of course.
That's when the season is 1/3 over. Not about or around 1/3, but exactly 1/3.
It's the point the Tigers were at as they headed into Thursday's 7-5 loss at Comerica Park to the Oakland A's.
They went into the game having played 54 games. So, no, it's not early for them anymore, and while it's not late, either, it's the first fractional milestone of the season.
Meaning?
Well, if you're the kind that likes to project stats and won-lost records, this is a convenient time to do so.
Simply multiply everything by three.
If you do, you'll find that Miguel Cabrera is on a pace to finish with 33 home runs and 105 RBI.
Alfredo Simon would lead the team with 15 wins.
Joakim Soria would have 45 saves.
And Yoenis Cespedes would finish with 51 doubles.
No one would score 90 runs, though, let alone 100.
As for the Tigers as a team, their 28-26 record for 54 games translates into an 84-78 record for the entire season.
I consider that an under-achievement. I imagine you do as well. For that matter, they no doubt do, too -- although they're still convinced, and importantly so, that they're a good team.
"I once was on a team in the minors that lost 12 in a row and we still won our division," said Ian Kinsler.
"But what happens is that everything becomes more significant when you're losing like this. If you fall behind by a run, everyone holds their breath.
"And three or fours seem like a mountain to climb. You just try to stay as realistic as possible.
"No matter who you are, though," Kinsler added, "you can't say this is a bad team. I think we know that."
In that case, the Tigers might eventually resemble a good team again, but until they do, where they're currently at has a familiar look.
This was the third time in the last six years the Tigers went 28-26 for the first third of the season.
And each time, it was a combination of a 16-11 segment with a 12-15.
In 2010, as they did this year, the Tigers went 16-11 through their first 27 games only to go 12-15 in the next 27.
Making 12-15 seem even worse than it is this time, however, is the fact that the Tigers are in a 5-13 plunge.
Thursday's game was another dismal affair until their four-run ninth.
But the broader view of the team is in keeping with its recent history.
If you divide the first third in half -- into sixths, in other words -- the Tigers have fared worse in the second half each of the last four years -- and seven times in the last nine.
Here's the chart, dividing the Tigers' 54-game starts into 27-game segments.
It dates back to 2006, the dawn of their modern respectability.
Tigers' record history through first 54 games
| Year | Record | First 27 | Second 27 |
| 2015 | 28-26 | 16-11 | 12-15 |
| 2014 | 31-23 | 18-9 | 13-14 |
| 2013 | 30-24 | 16-11 | 14-13 |
| 2012 | 25-29 | 14-13 | 11-16 |
| 2011 | 28-26 | 12-15 | 16-11 |
| 2010 | 28-26 | 16-11 | 12-15 |
| 2009 | 29-25 | 14-13 | 15-12 |
| 2008 | 23-31 | 12-15 | 11-16 |
| 2007 | 30-24 | 16-11 | 14-13 |
| 2006 | 36-18 | 18-9 | 18-9 |
The realization that the Tigers aren't new to stumbling doesn't provide any immediate answers, of course.
And there's nothing they would like more at this point than an immediate answer.
All I can tell you is that they've salvaged seasons in the past that didn't look the brightest at this point.
It doesn't mean the Tigers are out for the count.
But one of these days, what you see at this time of year might be what you get for the rest of it.
The burden of proof it won't be this year is squarely on them.
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