Gage: Despite solid start without him, Tigers need Verlander for long haul
DETROIT -- Sorry, but you would be wrong.
If you have begun to think, as some perhaps have, that the Tigers can get by without Justin Verlander being a major contributor to the 2015 season, you'd be incorrect.
"But they are 11-2 without him," you might reply.
Indeed, they are.
"Both Shane Greene and Alfredo Simon are 3-0."
Yes -- and congrats to them.
But it's too much to ask any rotation, while turning over from one season to another, to make up for the loss of both Max Scherzer and Verlander.
That's not to say it can't be done. There actually isn't much in baseball, as we have discovered, that can't be done.
But to think in late April that the Tigers won't eventually feel the loss of Verlander is foolhardy.
It's not a matter of victories. Nobody knows how many wins Verlander could have been penciled in for this year -- had he made all his starts.
But we do know he could have been counted on for 200-plus innings -- because that's what he has contributed every year since 2007.
In fact, Verlander has averaged nearly seven innings per start his entire career. So, at the very least, what this injury will cost him and the Tigers is a ninth consecutive season of throwing more than 200 innings.
I don't blame fans for beginning to ponder an extended amount of time without him, however. All they've been hearing, and reading about, are delays in his return.
Eventually it gets to the point where you tune out the updates because of the hamster-wheel effect.
No matter how fast you run to get somewhere, you never get anywhere.
So far, Verlander hasn't gotten anywhere in his efforts to return to the rotation.
But that doesn't mean it should be forgotten how much the Tigers will need to lean upon him -- or still need him to be one of their core pitchers.
Don't get caught up in the headiness of an outstanding start, in other words, and forget about the realities of a long season.
Also don't forget that win or lose, in good times and bad, Verlander has been a horse.
On Monday, the Tigers disclosed that Verlander has had an MRI -- from which they learned, with an audible sigh of relief, that he's suffering from nothing more than what they've thought all along.
A strain of his right triceps.
But he still hasn't started a game.
There've been numerous encouraging reports about progress -- including on the day he got hurt when it was announced he wasn't expected to miss a start -- but there's been less encouragement lately.
When Verlander had to pull out of a 60-pitch simulated game at just 45 pitches last week in Pittsburgh, because of what was called fatigue, it became apparent the next step had to be more testing for him.
That testing included an MRI.
"He had a little more soreness than we wanted to see," trainer Kevin Rand said. "He's in a holding pattern until we get him asymptomatic.
"Then he'll start throwing again. But we've done tests. We've had multiple opinions."
And here's one more. Mine.
Nothing is more important than taking the time to get this right. Do whatever is required, but don't bring Verlander back until you're 110 percent certain he is ready.
If it means two more simulated games, take two more simulated games. If it means three more -- of 45, 60 and 75 pitches -- take three.
As for the big picture, keep in mind that despite the Tigers' outstanding start, it's just a start. Not even 1/12th of a season.
So it wouldn't be surprising if Verlander, who's missed three starts, misses three more. What looked like an easy rebound from a cramp has become a lot more complicated.
But one of the tangible benefits of the Tigers' start is the patience it allows them to have with those whose injuries have nagged
Such as Verlander's.
Also Victor Martinez's, who clearly isn't running well, but can swing a bat.
Verlander's innings will be needed, to be sure. His effectiveness will be, too, but endurance must be assured first.
As you no doubt know, injuries have never been a factor with him. He's always been able to just throw and throw.
But they're a factor now because the Tigers are fully aware of what we all still should be: For them to be as good as they can be over the course of months, not just a couple of weeks, their horse still has to be one.
