In what has become the biggest game of their pennant race, the Cardinals are starting a pitcher who is coming back from injury on what is a spring-training-like work schedule.
Not exactly the ideal formula for success, is it?
Sure, the Cardinals can hope the Michael Wacha who takes the mound in Phoenix on Friday night will pitch as he did last October. They also realize the odds of that happening are not very good based on what they've seen from the young right-hander this month.
In three comeback starts, he has pitched 11 2/3 innings and allowed seven earned runs and 12 hits. Before he ran out of gas in Game 6 of the World Series last year, Wacha started four times in the postseason, went 4-0 and allowed three earned runs in 27 innings. Look at that difference and you'd think Bob Gibson turned into Kip Wells.
Still, it's easy to see why the Cardinals want Wacha to have the ball as they try to hold off the surging Pirates, who enter a series in Cincinnati just one game behind the Cardinals in the NL Central.
To start with, they must be convinced that his right shoulder is healthy. No way would they start him if they didn't believe he was sound. No way. Wacha has said, in fact, that he never has felt stronger after using the two-plus months he was out to strengthen his legs and the muscles around the shoulder bone that was compromised.
While this start certainly isn't as important as his health, it's still a huge game and the Cardinals want to give themselves the best chance to win. The decision for this game comes down to a not-quite-right Wacha or rookie left-hander Marco Gonzales. While the choice hardly is obvious, Wacha would seem to rate the edge. Gonzales, let's not forget, started the season in Class A and though his climb through the system has been impressive, he's pitched only 30 2/3 innings in the big leagues with an ERA of 4.70.
If the Cardinals weren't headed for the postseason, they very well might have turned to Gonzales. But because the possibility remains very real that Wacha could return to form, why not give him another chance? If he's pitching like he has, the Cardinals' chances for a run into deep October are much improved. While the club didn't want Wacha relieving in the regular season because they believe it would be more taxing, they have not ruled out having him work in the bullpen during the playoffs. Because of added off days, they believe the stress on his arm would be less.
While no one can know how Wacha will pitch Friday night, the key to his performance is quite clear. It hinges on his changeup, which is regarded as one of the best in the National League.
So far in his comeback, the change has been mostly missing. This isn't surprising because the changeup is considered such a feel pitch, it takes longer than other pitches to throw with consistent effectiveness. Wacha threw hardly any changes in his first two comeback starts and, though he used it consistently against the Reds last Saturday, he wasn't thrilled with it. He actually pitched pretty well, allowing two runs in 4 2/3 innings on 78 pitches, but wasn't overly pleased largely because of the lack of effectiveness of the change. Of the dozen he threw, the last resulted in an RBI double and only one produced an out. Most of them ended up as balls in the dirt, which isn't a bad sign. What was bothersome was that, unlike when the pitch is working, none resulted in a swing and a miss.
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"He was frustrated," manager Mike Matheny said. "He's been able to fall out of bed and throw one of the better changeups in baseball, especially from the right side. For him to try and pitch without arguably his No. 1 weapon, and be able to hold the team down like he did, that takes an adjustment. He's getting better."
Matheny added that Wacha is a tough self-evaluator and, remembering how downright mad he appeared after losing Game 6 last fall, I would not disagree. How he has been able to step away and analyze his work so objectively would be impressive for anyone, but especially for a 23-year-old.
Working in his favor Friday should be that the club says it won't be counting Wacha's pitches like it did in his three previous outings of 50, 70 and 78 pitches. If Wacha is on, the Cardinals are prepared to let him deal.
The Cardinals could make his start a side story Friday night if their bats would warm up. In a season that has seen more downs than ups from the offense, the Cardinals' bats are trending down. They enter the weekend having dropped three of four, and having scored one, two and three runs in the losses.
Facing the Diamondbacks looks like just the remedy the Cardinals could use. Arizona has the worst record in the majors and is 6-17 in September with a 4.78 ERA that is second-worst in the NL. The team with the highest ERA this month is the Cubs, however, and they just shut down the Cardinals in consecutive games.
Wacha should be prepared to work without much margin for error. His task will be much more doable if his changeup can change back into what it was.
You can follow Stan McNeal on Twitter at @StanMcNeal or email him at stanmcneal@gmail.com.
