If told in November they'd be locked in a virtual dead heat for the final playoff spot in the merciless Western Conference with 15 games to go, the New Orleans Pelicans surely would have said, "We'll take it!"
If told to the Oklahoma City Thunder, the team that's played in three of the last four West finals surely would have doubled over in laughter.
Yet here we are, steamrolling toward April and the lone unknown is whether the Pelicans (37-30) or Thunder (38-30) will round out the West's super-charged playoff field.
For the young Pelicans, it's been another season of exasperating injuries to key players, most notably point guard Jrue Holiday, who hasn't played since Jan. 12. This year, though, they've persevered, and even surged, over the last month to challenge for a postseason berth.
The grit shown by this team, with All-Star power forward Anthony Davis rising as an MVP candidate, will go down as a big step in moving the franchise forward, playoffs or no playoffs.
It's not that simple for the Thunder, whose championship aspirations have been doused by injuries in each of the last two seasons. This season has been marred by injury up and down the roster and to its biggest stars -- Russell Westbrook early, Kevin Durant throughout and now Serge Ibaka.
Durant has missed 41 of the team's 68 games, putting the Thunder in the unfathomable position of missing the playoffs altogether.
Even with Westbrook piling up triple-doubles at a historic pace, OKC hasn't gained much traction in the standings, going just 6-5 in their last 11 games.
The Thunder started a crucial four-game homestand Wednesday with a 122-118 win over with the Boston Celtics, nudging them ahead of New Orleans and into the No. 8 spot by one-half game. The Atlanta Hawks are up next on Friday followed by Miami and the hopeless Los Angeles Lakers, a must-win if there ever was one.
The Pelicans hit the road for three tough games starting tonight at Phoenix, followed by stops at Golden State and the Los Angeles Clippers.
So which team will make the playoffs and earn a likely first-round date against the league-leading Warriors?
Here's five questions that might yield the answer:
1. Which team will be healthier for the stretch run?
This is almost impossible to answer. For the Thunder, we know Ibaka is out for at least a month, and that means he's likely to miss the rest of the regular season, a significant blow. What we don't know is exactly when Durant will return -- expected to be later this week or early next week -- and how he'll fare when he does come back. Each comeback so far has been short-lived. Durant had surgery in October to repair a Jones fracture in his right foot. He returned on Dec. 2, but since has dealt with a toe issue, a sprained ankle and then pain caused by a surgical screw that forced him to undergo a second procedure. Wednesday's game was the 13th in a row he's missed since that procedure. If Durant returns pain-free, clearly the advantage swings heavily in OKC's favor. The Thunder have benefited from a deadline trade for center Enes Kanter, but now there's concern after he limped off Wednesday after turning his left ankle. As for the Pelicans, the outlook for Jrue Holiday (leg) returning at all appears bleak. Three-point-shooting forward Ryan Anderson hasn't played since Feb. 21 and there is no return date yet. It's hard to see New Orleans keeping up the torrid pace they've set recently in winning 10 of their last 13 games without reinforcement, and soon.
2. Which team has the tougher road ahead?
The Thunder have a more advantageous schedule, playing eight of the final 14 games at home where they are 24-9. Of the 14 left, they play six games against current West playoff teams and six games are against teams below .500. The Pelicans play nine of their final 15 on the road where they're 14-18. Five of those road games are against West playoff teams and a total of eight are against West playoff teams, including Steph Curry and the Warriors twice and James Harden and the Rockets twice. The Pelicans play just five teams that are below .500.
3. Is there a defining stretch in the schedule for each team?
The Thunder play seven games starting next Wednesday through April 7 that could ultimately decide if they make the playoffs or will be watching from home for the first time since 2009. The stretch includes four games on the road at San Antonio, improving Utah, Phoenix and Memphis, plus home games against Dallas, Houston and San Antonio. That's five playoffs teams, plus the Jazz, who are 11-3 since the All-Star break. The Pelicans begin an eight-game stretch on Thursday through April 3 that includes some rugged competition right off the bat, as well as a few must-have games against teams out of the hunt. The stretch looks like this: at Phoenix, at Golden State, at the L.A. Clippers, vs. Houston, vs. Sacramento, vs. Minnesota, at the Los Angeles Lakers and at Sacramento. If they come out of it with five or six wins then New Orleans could be primed for its first playoff series since 2011.
4. Do the Thunder and Pelicans play again? And what if they finish in a tie?
Unfortunately there is no one-game showdown remaining between the two teams. They wrapped up the season series with a home-and-home back-to-back on Feb. 4 and 6. New Orleans won the season series, 3-1, so it holds the tiebreaker in the case of a tie after 82 games.
5. Is there a wild card at play in the schedules?
Maybe. If the Thunder makes it through the above-mentioned seven-game gauntlet in good shape, their four remaining games are against Sacramento, Indiana, Portland and Minnesota. Three of those teams are sub.-500, and by the time the Trail Blazers come to town on April 13, it is possible -- although far from guaranteed -- that they will be locked into a playoff seed and opt to rest key players. The Pelicans' final two games are at Minnesota and at home against San Antonio. If they can't win up north they don't deserve a playoff spot anyway, and then it's possible San Antonio will be locked into a playoff seed and Gregg Popovich will opt to keep his starters off the floor.
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