The Braves reached the season's quarter mark with the completion of Wednesday's game in Arizona, finishing their first 40 games with a 22-18 record and a one-game lead in the N.L. East division. With the season well under way, here are five truths concerning the team's fast start and recent mediocrity:
Prior to the season, looking at the Braves’ roster on paper, it was easy to assume they would boast one of the best lineups, pitching staffs and bullpens in baseball. Throw it all together and the franchise was on par with the sport’s elite.
But while Atlanta posted a solid record (22-18) despite a rough early schedule, it was not the very best in any one area.
The lineup’s production has been tainted by injuries – they still have not played a single game with every starter in the lineup, as Jason Heyward is still rehabbing in the minor leagues – but the inconsistencies of some of its better hitters have left the team ranked 14th in runs scored (170). Overall, the Braves have been just a hair above average offensively. If they can get healthy and solve their hitting woes with runners on base, there is much to be improved over the next 122 games.
The rotation and bullpen sparked the team’s April dominance, but fell back to Earth in recent weeks, posting a 4.36 ERA in May (12th-worst). For the season, neither the starters nor the relievers rank higher than 17th in the league in wins above replacement (WAR).
Again, injuries played a role on the mound as well, but it’s far too early to describe this team as superior in any area.
During the series finale against Arizona Wednesday afternoon, the 23-year-old made yet another unbelievable play, diving to his right to field a hard-hit grounder by Gerardo Parra. Only problem? He could not get the ball out of his glove. The highlight-reel diving stop was enough to draw praise, but Simmons was visibly frustrated with himself for “allowing” the runners to advance.
Expectations are higher now.
With 11 defensive runs saved through the first 40 games, the argument could be made that Simmons is the best defensive player in baseball. No other player has saved his team more than eight runs. The next closest shortstop is Troy Tulowitzki ... with six.
Since breaking into the majors last season, Simmons has committed just three errors in 741 innings. He’s the only major league player over that stretch to commit fewer than four errors with at least 500 innings played. Take a moment and let that sink in.
Also, that between-the-legs tag against Cincinnati is worth at least 1,000 superhero points.
Judging by the numbers, Jordan Schafer is the team’s best option in the No. 1 hole right now.
The former top prospect turned waiver wire pickup is hitting a team-best .243/.364/.351 at leadoff – discounting Reed Johnson who has but one plate appearance at leadoff – not great numbers by any means, but certainly better than Simmons and B.J. Upton up to this point.
The problem, of course, is that when the Braves are healthy, there is not much room for Schafer in Atlanta’s outfield, even with the elder Upton doing more harm than good so far. The organization just has too much invested in the Uptons and Heyward to hand Schafer the leadoff job for the long-term (although he’s likely earned himself a spot on the 25-man roster for the season).
So what’s the solution?
Manager Fredi Gonzalez will keep juggling the lineup, hoping Simmons or B.J. finds a groove the offense can rely on. That’s all he can do until a better solution presents itself.
Only the lowly Houston Astros strike out at a higher percentage than the Braves.
And no, it’s never enjoyable to be compared to the owners of the worst record in baseball.
The organization as a whole, though, does not appear too concerned with the number of Ks. These were the expectations coming in. While the team has plateaued since its electrifying start, it is still winning games in spite of the strikeouts – in fact, Atlanta won four of its five games in which it finished with 13 or more strikeouts.
Translation: Strikeouts do not solely define offensive or team success.
As Braves writer Grant McCauley noted recently, the real concern revolves around the team’s strikeout rates in key situations, notably with runners in scoring position. The Braves are fanning 24.2 percent of the time in said situations. That’s a problem that needs correcting.
However, on the flip side, very few are mentioning just how good Atlanta has been at drawing walks. The team takes a base on balls 9.4 percent of the time (4th-best in baseball). So while there are plenty of unproductive at-bats, the team is still manufacturing ways to get on the basepaths.
But that’s not near as fun to talk about. The strikeouts aren’t disappearing.
Coming into the campaign, it was unfair to hold the young starter to last season’s historic run. It was unavoidable, though.
The righty won 23 consecutive games last season before falling in the wild card game against St. Louis, and that string of misfortune has carried into his first season as the team’s apparent ace. Things simply have not gone well for Medlen. Looking back at his 2012 run, it seems strange to rattle off his current numbers: 1-5 record, 3.44 ERA, 4.79 FIP and a 3.3-to-1.9 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
Yikes.
Through his eight starts at the quarter pole, Medlen is the worst pitcher on the staff just months removed from being one of baseball’s very best. The truth is probably somewhere in between, but the 27-year-old’s walk rates have skyrocketed, his strikeout rates have dropped and he’s allowing home runs at the highest clip of his career.Run support has been an issues – the Braves have scored two or fewer runs in four of his starts – but Medlen has plenty of issues to work through. Needless to say, last season’s run seems far, far away.
Right now, the right-hander is just trying to get back above replacement level.
