Here's a dry run of draft expectations when holding the No. 4 slot in 12-team leagues (standard scoring), working exclusively off MockDraftCentral.com's current Average Draft Position (ADP) rankings (subscription required).
Round 1, Pick 4 overall: Motive — Best overall player
1st option: RB Ray Rice, Ravens
2nd option: WR Calvin Johnson, Lions
3rd option: QB Drew Brees, Saints
Round 2, Pick 21 overall: Motive — Best overall player
1st option: RB Chris Johnson, Titans
2nd option: RB Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars
3rd option: WR Demaryius Thomas, Broncos
Round 3, Pick 28 overall: Motive — Best WR or QB available
1st option: WR Demaryius Thomas, Broncos
2nd option: QB Matt Ryan, Falcons
3rd option: TE Jimmy Graham, Saints
Round 4, Pick 45 overall: Motive — Best receiver available
1st option: WR Percy Harvin, Seahawks
2nd option: WR Marques Colston, Saints
3rd option: WR Randall Cobb, Packers
Round 5, Pick 52 overall: Motive — Best overall player
1st option: RB Reggie Bush, Lions
2nd option: WR Marques Colston, Saints
3rd option: QB Matthew Stafford, Lions
Round 6, Pick 69 overall: Motive — Best QB on the board
1st option: QB Matthew Stafford, Lions
2nd option: QB Andrew Luck, Colts
3rd option: QB Tony Romo, Cowboys
Round 7, Pick 76 overall: Motive — Best tight end or running back
1st option: TE Tony Gonzalez, Falcons
2nd option: TE Jason Witten, Cowboys
3rd option: RB Mikel Leshoure, Lions
Round 8, Pick 93 overall: Motive — Best available, preferably wideout
1st option: WR Steve Johnson, Bills
2nd option: RB Ahmad Bradshaw, Colts
3rd option: WR Miles Austin, Cowboys
Round 9, Pick 100 overall: Motive — Best overall player
1st option: RB Ahmad Bradshaw, Colts
2nd option: RB Fred Jackson, Bills
3rd option: QB Eli Manning, Giants
Round 10, Pick 117 overall: Motive — Best overall player
1st option: RB Bernard Pierce, Ravens
2nd option: RB Fred Jackson, Bills
3rd option: TE Owen Daniels, Texans
Round 11, Pick 124 overall: Motive — Best WR or QB available
1st option: WR Malcom Floyd, Chargers
2nd option: QB Josh Freeman, Buccaneers
3rd option: QB Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers
Round 12, Pick 141 overall: Motive — Best QB (non-conflicting bye)
1st option: QB Josh Freeman, Buccaneers
2nd option: QB Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers
3rd option: QB Ryan Tannehill, Dolphins
Round 13, Pick 148 overall: Motive — Best tight end on the board
1st option: TE Antonio Gates, Chargers
2nd option: TE Dustin Keller, Dolphins
3rd option: TE Coby Fleener, Colts
Round 14, Pick 165 overall: Motive — Best D/ST available
1st option: D/ST Denver Broncos
2nd option: D/ST Seattle Seahawks
3rd option: D/ST New England Patriots
Round 15, Pick 172 overall: Motive — Best kicker available
1st option: PK Alex Henery, Eagles
2nd option: PK Randy Bullock, Texans
3rd option: PK Shaun Suisham, Steelers
Round 16, Pick 189 overall: Motive — Receiver with greatest upside
1st option: WR Aaron Dobson, Patriots
2nd option: WR DeAndre Hopkins, Texans
3rd option: WR Cordarrelle Patterson, Vikings
BREAKDOWN
1. Only Ray Rice could tally 1,621 total yards and 10 touchdowns at the age of 25 last year ... and some fantasy pundits would view that as a sign of decline. Yes, Rice has averaged 347 touches in the last four seasons, and yes, Bernard Pierce is an emerging force in league circles; but Rice is still a top-five asset in standard-scoring and Points Per Reception leagues.
It's worth noting that Rice has amassed 2,000 total yards and 77 catches in odd-numbered seasons.
2. With Andy Levitre (free agent) and Chance Warmack (Round 1 draftee) plugged in as Tennessee's guards, the Titans' offensive line — from a road-grading, run-blocking perspective — could be the best in the AFC. That bodes well for Chris Johnson, who averaged 122.6 total yards and 0.6 TDs last year when logging 18 or more touches (10 games).
3. Demaryius Thomas (94 catches, 1,434 yards, 10 TDs) racked up touchdowns in consecutive games five times last season. For the year, he crossed the PPR-elite threshold of seven catches, 90 yards and/or one TD 12 times.
4. With elite-level options like Matthew Stafford, Tony Romo and Andrew Luck at No. 69 overall, there's really no incentive for grabbing a quarterback in Round 1 — short of landing Drew Brees sometime around picks 10, 11 or 12.
5. Let's be honest here: Short of a horrible training camp and preseason, the chances are remote that Ahmad Bradshaw will be available at No. 100 in August fantasy drafts. Bradshaw averaged 1,245 total yards and 8.3 touchdowns with the Giants from 2010-12 ... and neither Vick Ballard, Donald Brown nor Delone Carter can match his franchise-back-level skill set.
6. I have Fred Jackson ahead of Bernard Pierce (315 rushing yards for Weeks 16, 17 and the wild-card round last season) in my latest tailback rankings; but with Ray Rice already in tow, Pierce is a must-have handcuff for Round 10 (RB5).
7. Similar to last summer's proclamation, I will dance a jig around the Fox Sports offices upon landing Josh Freeman (4,065 yards passing, 27 TDs last year) anytime after Round 12.
Blessed with Vincent Jackson, Mike Williams and pass-catching running back Doug Martin last year, Freeman accounted for 299 yards passing and/or multiple TDs in seven straight games (Weeks 4-11). He's the perfect plug-and-play backup QB.
