Here are four simple rules to follow when choosing starting lineups for glorious Week 1, easily the most stress-free weekend of the fantasy season:
The week may come when Brandon Weeden (Browns) and/or Jake Locker (Titans) tops Drew Brees on a random fantasy Sunday.
However, that's still no excuse to bench fantasy's No. 1 quarterback at any time, when healthy. Last we checked, Brees is the only QB in history to throw for 5,000 yards in consecutive seasons; and, oh yeah, he racked up 91 touchdowns (two rushing) in that two-year span (2011-12).
There's a reason why you invested a high-to-mid Round 1 pick on Brees (5,177 yards passing, 44 TDs last year) ... and waited 13 or 14 rounds to land Weeden or Locker as a serviceable backup. Brees gets the start each and every week, regardless of the competition.
The same holds true for Cam Newton: I've already been inundated with questions from nervous-nelly fantasy owners, perhaps benching the Panthers quarterback against the Seahawks in Week 1.
Yes, Seattle had the No. 6 passing defense in 2012; and yes, the 'Hawks held Newton to 183 total yards and zero touchdowns last October. These are all pertinent factors to the decision-making process.
But then again ... why even draft Newton, presumably in Round 2? Why not invest that high pick on an elite talent, like Jimmy Graham, Demaryius Thomas, Brandon Marshall or David Wilson, you know, guys who would start for your fantasy team this week?
Lest we forget that Newton (7,920 yards passing, 62 total TDs) has been one of NFL history's most prolific quarterbacks after two seasons. Or that, when rounding up fractionally, he posted five games of 30 or more points last year (standard-scoring leagues).
Or that Newton accounted for 300 yards passing and/or multiple touchdowns in eight of his 10 final games in 2012.
Or that he's confidently ranked as the No. 4 fantasy QB heading into the 2013 campaign.
If you have stud receivers like Vincent Jackson (@ N.Y. Jets) or Larry Fitzgerald (@ St. Louis), they're automatic starts — regardless of the Jets and Rams ranking among the top-four passing defenses last year.
On the next tier, please don't bench Hakeem Nicks (@ Dallas) or Dwayne Bowe (@ Jacksonville) for Golden Tate (Seahawks) or Rod Streater (Raiders), off a hunch Streater is primed to become the Next Big Thing in Oakland (that distinction modestly belongs to Denarius Moore).
Is it possible Tate could outscore Nicks or Bowe this week? Of course, anything can happen in fantasyland. However, the odds of Bowe and Nicks falling flat against the Jaguars and Cowboys, respectively, are pretty slim.
Especially in PPR leagues.
Bottom line: You'll have all season to tinker with rosters and make regrettable decisions with lineups. But Week 1, when dealing with healthy players, is the one time to sit back and enjoy your bankable stars, with no tangible worries.
Win or lose.
It's also the only Sunday when you cannot feel the internal pressure of avoiding a two-game losing streak in a highly competitive 12-team league.
The rule of thumb: Ride your draft-day studs ... until given substantial reason to believe otherwise.
When torn by the option of starting two, three or four players of similar stature at the flex position, I will side with tailbacks 99.99999 percent of the time.
By and large, starting or time-share tailbacks are guaranteed to garner more touches, and more red-zone opportunities, than non-elite receivers or tight ends. It's the same reason why we covet targets-driven receivers in Points Per Reception leagues.
In the long run, nothing beats the combination of 'talent' and 'opportunity' — these are the factors that most running backs control on random Sundays.
There are two exceptions here:
a) If the back is less than 70-percent healthy leading up to the season opener, then bench him.
b) And if I have the opportunity to handcuff a receiver or tight end to a top-flight quarterback (like James Jones to Aaron Rodgers or Kenbrell Thompkins to Tom Brady), I might pursue that angle instead.
In a dream scenario, we'd all love to go 13-0 in the regular season and then cruise to a fantasy title for Weeks 14, 15 and 16 (playoffs). But if you're going to lose a game or two, Week 1 might be the best time for that to occur.
That statement has nothing to do with tanking the opener. Instead, it has everything to do with earning first (or early) dibs on waiver-wire free agents who proffered breakout performances in Week 1.
Remember Anquan Boldin's absurd NFL debut in 2003 (217 receiving yards against Detroit)? Or Arian Foster's blitz of 231 yards rushing against the Colts in 2010? Both then-afterthoughts could have been had for rock-bottom prices during 12-team drafts?
Of course, for every Boldin, Foster and Kurt Warner (1999: 309 yards, 3 TD against the Ravens in his first NFL start) ... there's the cautionary tale involving Frisman Jackson, the Browns wideout who torched the Bengals for eight catches, 128 yards and one TD in the 2005 season opener.
The following Wednesday, Jackson was the most coveted asset on the waiver wire — even though the 128-yard game against Cincy would prove to be his only effort beyond 65 yards in four NFL seasons.
