Fantasy Fox: 4 name-brand pitchers to dump or trade ASP
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Here are four name-brand starting pitchers to abandon, via trade -- or perhaps drop altogether -- in 12-team roto leagues, as we breeze into the second month of the fantasy season.
Cole Hamels, Philadelphia Phillies
2015 Stats: 1-3, 4.14 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 38/19 K-BB
REASONS FOR CONCERN
1. Among all major league starters (through May 5), Hamels has allowed the third-most walks (19) -- a galling figure for a guy who had never doled out more than 61 free passes in a season. As part of that, of Hamels' six outings to date, he has surrendered at least three walks five times.
2. The Phillies are averaging only 2.85 runs per game, a bottom-rung number that suggests Hamels will have difficulty reaching double-digit victories (over the full season).
Bottom line: Hamels holds greater value as a real-world asset (as part of a blockbuster trade) than in fantasy.
3. On the plus side, Hamels has recorded 15 strikeouts in his last two outings. On a down note, the southpaw hasn't topped the 15-K threshold -- over back-to-back starts -- since July 2014.
4. Against NL East foes this season, Hamels has a woefully mediocre ERA of 4.32.
5. Among MLB starters, Hamels had already given up eight homers to the opposition -- third-worst in baseball.
RECOMMENDATION: Hamels has more bark than bite in fantasy circles. He's a No. 1 starter with 10- and 12-team leagues in name only. Use him as trade bait for a blockbuster deal.
Jon Lester, Chicago Cubs
2015 Stats: 1-2, 4.71 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 28/6 K-BB
REASONS FOR CONCERN
1. The Cubs are averaging just 3.4 runs in Lester's five outings with Chicago. From a broader perspective, the North Siders hold bottom-10 rankings with runs, hits, doubles and RBI.
2. Of his five starts this year, Lester tossed four or fewer strikeouts three times. And from an extrapolation standpoint, the southpaw should fall considerably short of last season's tally (220 Ks).
Which brings us to this: Unless the Cubs are in hot contention for the postseason through mid-September, there'll be minimal motivation to overtax their prized free-agent signing.
RECOMMENDATION: Lester remains a palatable fantasy option in 10- and 12-team leagues -- but as the No. 3 starter. If he's your definitive ace ... it's time to explore all trade scenarios -- especially after Lester's first (and only) scoreless effort of the season.
Phil Hughes, Minnesota Twins
2015 Stats: 1-4, 5.02 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 28/4 K-BB
REASONS FOR CONCERN
1. Hughes tallied his first victory of the season Monday, despite allowing five runs and seeing noticeable jumps in ERA and WHIP.
2. Fantasy owners should realize Hughes' 2014 numbers (16 wins, 3.52 ERA, 186 strikeouts) were ceiling components to a marginal career in the majors.
3. Hughes has never collected double-digit wins in consecutive seasons.
4. Through six starts, Hughes has incurred noticeable upticks (in a bad way) from last year -- starting with hits per 9 innings (11.0) and homers per 9 (1.9); and his strikeouts per 9 (6.7) have already declined 17 percent, relative to last season.
5. Check out this dichotomy: Citing the 30 MLB teams, the Twins actually rank in the top half with runs, hits, RBI and batting average.
And yet, for Hughes' six starts, Minnesota has scored a grand total of 19 runs (including eight on Monday).
RECOMMENDATION: Hughes' greatest trade value comes in the form of a quality "throw-in" to a blockbuster swap.
Jeremy Hellickson, Arizona Diamondbacks
2015 Stats: 1-3, 5.20 ERA, 1.66 WHIP, 22/9 K-BB
REASONS FOR CONCERN
1. There's no excuse for any major-league pitcher -- starter or reliever -- posting an opponents' batting average of .322. Seriously, Hellickson would have more success on the mound if the hitters simply swung off a tee at home plate.
2. Of his last 18 starts (with the Rays and D-backs), Hellickson incredibly has only two victories.
3. Thankfully, Hellickson remains proficient with walks allowed (just 30 in his last 91.1 innings). Otherwise, he might not have a spoken-for spot in the Diamondbacks rotation.
4. Of his five Arizona starts to date, Hellickson has eclipsed the 16-out mark (well into the sixth inning) just once. Despite the limited innings, Hellickson has surrendered at least six hits in every outing.
5. Gone are the days when Hellickson was the golden boy of the Rays' organization (along with David Price and Evan Longoria).
From 2006-09 (ages 19-22), Hellickson sparkled at various levels of the minor leagues, posting a 496/99 K-BB rate and 2.67 ERA (455 innings).
But injuries and the lack of definitive 'out' pitches make him nothing more than an emergency start in fantasy circles.
RECOMMENDATION: There should be no loyalty here. At this point, Hellickson's an eminently replaceable asset.
Jay Clemons, the 2015 national winner for "Sports Blog Of The Year" (Cynopsis Media) and 2008 Fantasy Football Writer of the Year (Fantasy Sports Writers Association), can be reached via Twitter, day or night, at @ATL_JayClemons.