The spring training schedule has just begun, but fans and fantasy owners are already starting to chirp in the blogosphere about early heroes and zeroes.
In some cases, they are merely re-evaluating a player’s past splits in anticipation of the year ahead and refine their projections and presumed roles. The small sample set of spring games doesn’t move the needle.
Most injuries, save that which sidelined Adam Wainwright, are still subject to great debate and scrutiny. Information regarding medical tests and any potential long-term effects has been sparse, particularly in St. Louis and Philadelphia. So, while we want to take managers, players and front office personnel at their word, the asterisk appears next to an injured player’s name on draft boards, and shifts begin to occur.
In this latest addition to the fantasy draft guide, I’m taking a look at the early risers and fallers as draft season heats up. Each week, I’ll revisit draft boards and peruse the message boards to note those players whose stock is rising and whose is falling.
Let’s start in Philadelphia, where an injury has created an opportunity for a veteran outfielder.
Risers
Ben Francisco, OF, Philadelphia
Francisco takes on a starting role in Domonic Brown’s absence because of a broken hand. While Brown struggled markedly to open spring play prior to his injury (had one hit in 16 at-bats with nine strikeouts), Francisco entered Tuesday’s play with a strong .375 batting average, one home run and five RBI. Remember, he did hit 15 home runs with 32 doubles and a .266 batting average with Cleveland in 2007. If Francisco hits well out of the gate, Brown may have trouble getting his job back.
Kyle McClellan, SP, St. Louis
McClellan was efficient in most recent outing, as he makes his bid for a spot in the St. Louis rotation. He pitched three scoreless innings against Houston and did not waste pitches. McClellan currently stands as the frontrunner in the competition to replace injured ace Wainwright. He pitched to a strong 2.27 ERA as a reliever last season. Fantasy owners are starting to wonder whether Dave Duncan can work some magic with him.
A.J. Burnett, SP, New York Yankees
Which Burnett shows up in April? Burnett has pitched five shutout innings to start spring training, including three perfect innings against the potent Philadelphia lineup. While he’s not yet piled up strikeouts, Burnett is inducing a ton of groundballs. Given the questions in the New York rotation, fans and fantasy owners are positively giddy at the prospect that Burnett rediscovers his pre-2010 form.
Manny Ramirez, OF, Tampa Bay
Fantasy owners are curious about Ramirez and his possible contribution to the Rays this season. He’s the been the picture of professionalism this spring, coming in early, staying late, hustling on the basepaths and asking for more playing time. It’s enough to give him a moderate bump in the outfield evaluations, as spring training hits its next gear. Ramirez isn’t going to produce a huge home-run total in Tampa, but I’d be remiss if I failed to note that he did bat .298 last season with 25 extra-base hits in 265 at-bats.
Kila Ka’aihue, 1B, Kansas City
Ka’aihue has swung the bat well to open the spring. He entered Tuesday’s play with a .389 batting average (was 7-for-18) with three home runs and eight RBI. Ka’aihue batted an anemic .217 in 180 at-bats with the Royals in 2010. He hit eight home runs with 25 RBI.
Brian Matusz, SP, Baltimore
Matusz finished the 2010 season in grand style, and the Orioles’ front office worked diligently to provide him support in the lineup. As draft season heats up, fantasy owners are working through the splits and bumping him up their boards. Matusz’s average draft slot has increased by three full rounds in the past two weeks. He’s pitched well this spring, and concerns about a wart removal were quickly dismissed.
Fallers
Chris Carpenter, SP, St. Louis
It’s not time to panic just yet, but Carpenter’s hamstring injury does leave us concerned. He reportedly tweaked the injury following a side session over the weekend and was scratched from his next start. The team will be patient with him in the coming weeks, and there’s still a chance that Carpenter opens the season on the disabled list. Carpenter slips marginally now pending more information.
J.P. Arencibia, C, Toronto
I’m still high on the 25-year old catcher and believe that he’ll have an impact for the Blue Jays this season. However, Arencibia has yet to make his mark in spring training. Entering Tuesday’s action, he’d produced one hit in 18 at-bats with seven strikeouts. I don’t suspect that he’s at risk to get shipped back to Triple-A just yet, but he’ll have to show something soon.
Carlos Marmol, RP, Chicago Cubs
Marmol is a polarizing figure on draft boards this spring. His ridiculous high-strikeout and low-hit rates make you salivate. His high-walk rate leaves you nervous and fearful of an implosion. Fantasy owners have pulled back from Marmol in the past two weeks, dropping his average draft slot by nearly two full rounds.
Chase Utley, 2B, Philadelphia
Utley received a cortisone shot in his right knee this past week, and Philadelphia officials are finally on record as being concerned about his status. "We feel it's patellar tendinitis," Amaro said. "Could it be more than that? Perhaps."
Utley has been able to hit in the cages, but does not have the mobility to participate in other drills. While nothing more serious than patellar tendinitis has been discovered as of yet, the fact that he’s coming off of an injury-shortened season (played 115 games in 2010) doesn’t inspire confidence. There’s still a gap between Utley and Dustin Pedroia, who is returning from an injury, but it’s starting to narrow.
Wandy Rodriguez, SP, Houston
It was a tale of two seasons for Rodriguez in 2010. He was terrible in the first half, pitching to a dismal 4.97 ERA before flipping the proverbial switch at the All-Star break when he recorded a 2.11 ERA in his final 14 starts. Rodriguez was subsequently rewarded with a big contract this offseason.
Rodriguez has opened this spring terribly. In his first two starts, Rodriguez has allowed eight earned runs on eight hits with four walks in 4 2/3 innings pitched (15.43 ERA).
Carlos Beltran, OF, New York Mets
Beltran’s willingness to move to right field and cede center field to Angel Pagan raised some red flags coming into spring training. All thoughts of Beltran regaining his previous five-category form were cast to the wayside, but owners held out hope that his power stroke would return. Instead, Beltran is suffering from tendinitis in his left knee that stems from favoring his surgically-repaired right knee. He’s been shut down for several days because of persistent soreness.
