A week from now, as the Sweet 16 is approaching, the surprise team, the feel-good story that everybody is going to be talking about is the Belmont Bruins.
The Atlantic Sun regular-season and tournament champions will play the role of Cinderella Friday afternoon, knocking off No. 3 seed Georgetown to bust up many of your brackets. Don't say I didn't warn you.
The 68-team NCAA Tournament field was released Sunday night, which means it's that beloved time of the year where every conversation starts out, "What's your Final Four?" or "Who is your sleeper?"
Here are some of the key points from my bracket, which is sure to look wacky to most:
Belmont bandwagon
You absolutely must pick a low seed to reach the Sweet 16 these days. No. 12 seed Richmond got there last year and No. 11 seed Virginia Commonwealth made it all the way to the Final Four.
The big stage shouldn't frighten Belmont. This is the Bruins' fifth NCAA appearance since 2006. They lost their tournament opener last year by 14 to Wisconsin. Earlier this season, they lost by a point at Duke.
Belmont is shooting 48.4 percent, including 37.8 percent from three-point range, because it is such a good passing team. That should pose problems for Georgetown, which has a lot of pressure on it after getting upset in its NCAA Tournament opener the last two years.
Nine Belmont players average 10-plus minutes. Six average 8.5 points or more.
Kerron Johnson, a 6-foot-1 junior guard, leads the team in scoring (14.1) and assists (5.2). Drew Hanlen, a 5-11 senior guard, averages 10.9 points, 3.8 assists and is the top three-point shooter (48.1 percent). Ian Clark, a 6-3 junior guard, averages 12.7 points is another long-range threat (40.7 percent).
The Bruins, who have won 14 straight, have the type of underrated team to take Georgetown to the limit. Maybe the Hoyas survive and advance with a last-second victory, but I like Belmont's chances. I'm moving coach Rick Byrd's team into the Sweet 16.
Kentucky factor
Nearly everyone is going to pick star center Anthony Davis and the Wildcats to win the national championship.
For that reason, I won't. My bracket is ABK - Anybody But Kentucky.
There's no denying the Wildcats have the most talent, but they're young and they haven't been challenged enough. When they're in a close game, they're likely to crack. We've seen it happen to seemingly superior teams many times over the years.
Losing in the SEC championship probably was a good thing for Kentucky, but I'm still going to look elsewhere.
Michigan State tip
Don't go against coach Tom Izzo on one-day prep. In other words, in the second game of a weekend.
The Spartans are 16-3 in the NCAA Tournament under Izzo when there's only one day between games. He and his staff have that preparation down to a science.
I questioned this team a week ago, but with the way the supporting cast has stepped forward to help Draymond Green, a seventh Final Four in 14 years is in the Spartans' grasp.
Michigan tip
You have to wonder if Trey Burke finally did hit the wall Saturday when he shot 1-for-11, including 0-for-7 three-pointers, and committed eight turnovers against Ohio State. Can he get reenergized? Or did the freshman, who has played excessive minutes all season, finally run out of gas?
I'm giving the Wolverines one victory because coach John Beilein has a nine-game winning streak in postseason openers (5-0 in NCAA, 4-0 in NIT), going back to 1998 at Richmond.
A Sweet 16? Not going to happen unless Burke can get his tank filled up again in a hurry.
Detroit tip
The Titans have a strong inside-outside combo with 6-foot-10 Eli Holman and star guard Ray McCallum Jr.
Surprisingly, they're ranked No. 125 in RPI, No. 119 in Sagarin and No. 115 in Kenpom computer ratings.
Part of the reason for those poor numbers is that the Titans were 4-6 when Holman was out for some personal issues.
Based on the so-called "eye test," some are calling this possibly the most-talented No. 15 seed ever. They have athleticism and length, but they're not a good three-point shooting team, which can be the great equalizer in match-ups against power-conference teams.
Don't expect the upset, but Detroit has enough talent to hang around for a while against No. 2 seed Kansas.
What goes up must come down
Vanderbilt upset Kentucky for the SEC title and Florida State knocked off North Carolina for the ACC crown.
Naturally, I'm picking Vandy and FSU to lose their NCAA openers.
Those who overachieve one week often underachieve the next week. That's the way it goes in college basketball.
Of course, I said the same thing about Connecticut after it won five games in five days to take the Big East title last year. The Huskies kept right on rolling to the NCAA championship, but that was an extreme exception.
Vanderbilt will be a victim in a familiar 12 seed over five seed upset, losing to Harvard. Florida State, a No. 3 seed, is going down to No. 14 seed St. Bonaventure.
The other 12-5 upset I'm picking is California over Temple. It's a little risky because Cal first has to win one of the "First Four" games Wednesday against South Florida.
Cal is playing for the reputation of the Pac-12, which has been ripped all season long. I'm taking the Golden Bears to beat No. 4 seed Michigan in the next round, too, to advance to the Sweet 16. Somebody has to show the Pac-12 a little love.
Final Four
I saw someone's bracket that had all four No. 1 seeds advancing to New Orleans. I'm guessing his grandmother filled it out for him.
You have to pick who you think is going to win, I guess, but come on. Mix it up. You don't have to go overboard, but be a little creative.
Of course, I'm going to go overboard and say that Wichita State, the Missouri Valley regular-season champ, will be this year's Butler. The Shockers actually aren't that big of a long shot in the sense that they're a No. 5 seed. Butler was a No. 8 seed last season when it went to the title game, a year after getting there as a five seed.
Admittedly, Wichita State is a dangerous choice. Some people think the Shockers will lose their opener to VCU, which has that Final Four experience. I'm not as worried about that happening.
The problem is they're on Kentucky's side of the bracket in the South Regional.
It means taking out Kentucky in the regional semifinals.
Oh, well. Bye, bye, Calipari.
No guts, no glory.
I like Wichita State because it starts four seniors and a junior. The Shockers also have a 10-1 road record, and there are some hostile arenas that they have to go to in the Missouri Valley.
Garrett Stutz, a 7-footer, leads the team in scoring (13.5 points) and rebounding (8.0). Joe Ragland, a 6-foot guard, is shooting 56.7 percent, including 50 percent (57-for-114) from three-point range.
The Shockers are going to shock all the Kentucky lovers out there, and join No. 1 seed Michigan State (West), No. 2 seed Ohio State (East) and No. 2 seed Kansas (Midwest) in the Final Four.
National champ
My title-game match-up - Wichita State vs. Ohio State - is going to sound bizarre to some. But please know that Wichita State is No. 10 in the Sagarin and Kenpom rankings, and Ohio State is No. 2.
So , even though a drug test might seem appropriate for picking this, it's not quite as ridiculous as you might think.
I jumped on Ohio State's bandwagon after William Buford, who has had such a disappointing senior year, seemingly had a coming-out party in the regular-season finale. That didn't work out too well in the Big Ten tournament, won by Michigan State. Buford is still struggling.
But if he can ever start hitting shots the way he's capable, this team will beat anybody. I'm going to stick by it. The real William Buford will reappear again just in time for the Buckeyes to win it all.
