For the third time this spring, let’s examine Average Draft Position (ADP) to evaluate who’s being picked far too late, or way too soon.
Using ADPs thru March 24 from our FOX Fantasy Baseball game, below is another baker’s dozen of players whose draft positions vary widely from the rankings of yours truly. No players from the February 25 or March 11 versions of this article are included.
Note: When evaluating starting pitchers, overall ADPs will be very different from my rankings, since most people draft pitchers – both starters and closers – before I would. For that reason, I’ll use positional and overall ADPs for all players in an effort to provide better context.
Overvalued
Jayson Werth, OF, Nationals
ADP: 5th at position, 14.78 overall
Halpin’s rank: 13th at position, 36th overall
I like Werth, and I could be talked into moving him up in the rankings. However, he has a career batting average of .272, has surpassed 30 homers once, and moved to a team that will probably give him fewer baserunners to drive in than he had in Philadelphia. Second round? No, thanks.
Paul Konerko, 1B, White Sox
ADP: 6th at position, 20.37 overall
Halpin’s rank: 11th at position, 76th overall
Konerko had a huge 2010, batting .312 with 39 home runs and 111 RBI. He also combined for just 50 homers in the previous two seasons, and is likely to hit closer to his career BA of .280 this season. I wouldn’t draft Konerko ahead of Prince Fielder or Kevin Youkilis, and won‘t even get started on Adrian Gonzalez going behind him right now.
Dan Uggla, 2B, Braves
ADP: 2nd at position, 20.47 overall
Halpin’s rank: 4th at position, 35th overall Uggla is pretty much a lock for 30 homers – and that’s terrific for a middle infielder – but his .263 batting average makes me worry. I’d rather have Ian Kinsler, and another guy who we’ll get to later in this article.
Justin Verlander, SP, Tigers
ADP: 3rd at position, 24.93 overall
Halpin’s rank: 12th at position, 66th overall
Hmm … am I underrating Verlander’s prodigious strikeout numbers? He did whiff 269 batters in 2009 before settling in at 219 last season. Still, I’d definitely rather have Felix Hernandez, prefer Jon Lester’s upside, and like the National League pitcher-hitting advantages of Josh Johnson, Cliff Lee, Clayton Kershaw and Mat Latos. But you know what? Verlander’s ADP is making me think where I have him ranked. I’d have to think for 2,000 years to move him up to the beginning of the third round, though.
Bobby Abreu, OF, Angels
ADP: 12th at position, 41.32 overall
Halpin’s rank: 30th at position, 82nd overall
Abreu is 37 years old, and his OPS has declined for two consecutive seasons. More importantly, he could run into some playing time issues. The regular Angels’ outfield will have Peter Bourjos flanked by Torii Hunter and Vernon Wells, with Abreu at DH. However, whenever Kendrys Morales returns from his foot problems, he’ll probably need to spend some time at DH as well. Could the Angels simply bench Bourjos and play Abreu in the outfield? Sure, but they really like Bourjos’ defense. Also, even if you think that will happen sometimes, do you want to bet a fourth-round pick on Abreu as a sort-of-everyday player?
Jonathan Sanchez, SP, Giants
ADP: 19th at position, 75.94 overall
Halpin’s rank: 37th at position, 173rd overall
Over three seasons as a starter, Sanchez’s strikeout rate (excellent), walk rate (terrible) and ground ball rate (OK) have stayed pretty consistent. The thing that has changed a lot is his batting average on balls in play (BABIP), and that’s generally a luck-dependent stat. It’s hard to look at Sanchez’s peripheral numbers and say that last season’s career-best 3.07 ERA came because he figured something out. He was basically the same guy he always was, and that guy is an inconsistent walk machine. He can be your third starter – maybe – but not your second.
Undervalued
Andrew McCutchen, OF, Pirates
ADP: 19th at position, 62.33 overall
Halpin’s rank: 9th at position, 24th overall At age 24, McCutchen is a reasonable threat to bat .300 with 20 home runs, 30 stolen bases and 100 runs scored. He’s very talented, and getting better. No way there are a dozen outfielders better than him, let alone 18.
Dustin Pedroia, 2B, Red Sox
ADP: 6th at position, 97.26 overall
Halpin’s rank: 2nd at position, 29th overall
Pedroia is getting penalized on draft boards because of his injury-shortened 2010. His foot is reportedly 100 percent now, and if you simply double the numbers he put up in 75 games last year, you get a .288 BA with 24 home runs, 82 RBI, 106 runs and 18 stolen bases. By the end of this season, we could be debating Pedroia vs. Robinson Cano as fantasy’s best keystone option. It’s a good thing Yankee fans and Red Sox fans don’t have anything else to argue about.
Jose Reyes, SS, Mets
ADP: 5th at position (outfield), 110.18 overall
Halpin’s rank: 3rd at position, 34th overall Giving up a bit soon on Mr. Reyes, are we? You’re probably worried about his health, but even after missing a month last season, he hit 11 homers, stole 30 bases and scored 83 runs. Also, Reyes’ upside is HUGE – he averaged 64 steals and 113 runs scored from 2005-08.
Mat Latos, SP, Padres
ADP: 34th at position, 110.68 overall
Halpin’s rank: 11th at position, 65th overall I’m actually a little worried about the 23-year-old Latos, who jumped from 123 innings in 2009 to 184 2/3 in 2010. Still, he’s a beast and he pitches in the friendliest pitcher’s park in the majors, so I’m still buying. Atlanta ace Tommy Hanson (ADP of 39th among starters and 117.91 overall, SP16/83rd overall in my rankings) was also considered here.
Justin Morneau, 1B, Twins
ADP: 15th at position, 123.51 overall
Halpin’s rank: 9th at position, 28th overall
I’ve written this spring that I’m down on Morneau because of his home ballpark, but not because of his concussion-related issues, which seem to be gone. Should he be 15th at first base, behind guys like Adam LaRoche, Carlos Pena and Derrek Lee? Nah. Those guys don’t have Joe Mauer getting on base 97 percent of the time in front of them. Morneau should knock in plenty of runs, even if he doesn’t clear 30 bombs.
Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Pirates
ADP: 12th at position, 180.24 overall
Halpin’s rank: 10th at position, 101st overall
Alvarez had a solid rookie season, hitting 16 homers with a .788 OPS in 95 games after his promotion from Triple A. He could easily hit 25 homers this year, and that’s good enough for me to rank him in the top 10 at the position. Have you seen the rest of the fantasy dreck at the hot corner?
Geovany Soto, C, Cubs
ADP: 12th at position, 204.82 overall
Halpin’s rank: 6th at position, 89th overall
Soto missed some time last season with an injured shoulder, and played only 105 games. When he did play, he batted .280, slugged 17 home runs and posted an .890 OPS, which was the highest of any catcher with more than 350 at bats. Soto is a top-six catcher even if he doesn’t get more playing time than he did in 2010.
