The Tampa Bay Rays, no stranger to searching for value, will do so again in the MLB first-year player draft scheduled to begin Thursday night. They own the 21st and 29th picks in the first round, two of four slots they hold in the opening three rounds, and they will be presented a chance to find talent that could rise to the majors in coming years.
Discovering future contributors in early rounds, though, is no simple task. Each team has tales of high-profile misses or slower-than-expected developmental curves for top prospects. For every Evan Longoria (third overall pick in 2006) or David Price (first in 2007), there is a LeVon Washington (30th in 2009, did not sign with the team) or Josh Sale (17th in 2010, suspended indefinitely).
Still, the draft’s importance is obvious, especially for a small-market franchise like the Rays. The theme carries throughout the year in their front office, and it is partly to credit for consistency under Andrew Friedman, Tampa Bay’s executive vice president of baseball operations, since he assumed his current role following the 2005 campaign.
"Scouting and player development," Friedman recently told reporters, "is our lifeline."
That lifeline has evolved with the franchise, as Tampa Bay grew from an American League East also-ran to a consistent postseason contender. In recent years, the Rays’ position in the first round has reflected their change in results. From 1999, when outfielder Josh Hamilton was taken first overall, to 2008, when shortstop Tim Beckham was taken first overall, the Rays never selected lower than eighth.
But since winning the American League pennant in 2008, Tampa Bay has selected no higher than 17th in the first round and has consistently picked between Nos. 24 and 42. As the Rays’ position has changed in recent years, high school prospects with possible large-but-unrefined potential have become first-round selections (seven since 2008).
Consequently, that trend is part of a larger picture that has emerged: None of the Rays’ 28 draft picks in the first three rounds since 2008 have played in the majors for them.
"They went after some younger players that even if everything went great, the developmental curve for them was going to be three years at a minimum," said Nick Faleris, a member of Baseball Prospectus’ prospect team. "And Tampa Bay tends to be a little bit more conservative with their promotions. … I don’t know if it’s drafting poorly so much as going after high-upside guys."
Whatever the case, this year’s draft presents another chance to find gold in early rounds. Rays scouting director R.J. Harrison has said he and others in the scouting department are competitive and bemoan misses. Such is the nature of their work, and a process that has become an organizational staple under Friedman will be on display again, as will flexibility. "We do a good job of not having hard and fast rules, or any preconceived notions on filling a position," Friedman said.
Will the Rays find a star in early rounds? Patience, of course, is the only way to learn.
The future is intriguing. The future starts Thursday.
"It’s just sort of the nature of the beast," Faleris said. "They’re incentivized as an organization to go after higher upside (players) because … they’re going to find it in the international market or in the draft."
You can follow Andrew Astleford on Twitter @aastleford or email him at aastleford@gmail.com.
