The Dodgers in 2012 are a team that can compete for the National League West, but they need a lot of breaks to fall their way in order to contend.
The team finished the 2011 season with 25 wins in their last 35 games, and hopes to carry that momentum into this season.
The offense is pretty much the same one that last season averaged 4.41 runs per game after the All-Star break last season, coinciding with the acquisition of Juan Rivera and the second half improvement of James Loney, who hit .320 with 18 doubles and eight home runs after the midsummer classic in 2011.
Loney is one of the keys for the offense in 2012, whether he can continue his second half performance. Manager Don Mattingly thinks Loney can, thanks to finally finding a consistent swing.
"What I do see is good timing from James. In the past you'd see all kind of different triggers. He'd step back one day, then would be wide. He would try to sit (in his stance) one day then he'd be tall. His hands would be up, his hands would be down," said Mattingly. "But now he looks the same. He looks like he's found his rhythm."
Andre Ethier looks healthy again, and that will be a big boost to the offense if he can return to the form that saw him hit 31 home runs in 2009.
"Right now he looks like himself, and like he did a couple of years ago," Mattingly said of Ethier. "He's one of the best hitters in the league when he's going right."
Another catalyst for the offense will be speedy shortstop Dee Gordon, slated to bat leadoff and play every day in his first full season. "I don't think there's going to be anything that stops Dee," said Mattingly.
The starting pitching suffered a blow with the loss of Hiroki Kuroda, but gained two veterans to round out the rotation, as Aaron Harang and Chris Capuano were signed to two-year deals. Both have been reasonably effective during spring training, but more importantly they have remained healthy, which will be as big a determinant of their performance in 2012 than anything.
Javy Guerra and Kenley Jansen headline what looks to be a strong Dodgers bullpen, with a mix of youth and veteran arms. What to watch for in the first month or so of the season is if there is room in the bullpen for Blake Hawksworth, who will begin the year on the disabled list after recovering from a pair of offseason elbow surgeries, and Ronald Belisario, who must serve a 25-game suspension for violating MLB's drug policy. Belisario is eligible to return on May 4, and both he and Hawksworth are out of options so the Dodgers must add them to the active roster or risk losing them to waivers.
If everything breaks right for the Dodgers and they play like they did to end last season, they can contend. But they will need more than just Clayton Kershaw and Matt Kemp to perform well for the team to make the postseason.
