Could Shelby Miller's rare off night put him back on the October shelf?
For the sake of Shelby Miller, here's hoping his performance Tuesday night will not make him forgotten again in October.
It shouldn't, but you never know.
There is, in fact, quite a bit we don't know about the Cardinals' pitching plans moving forward.
Let's start with this: Why did the old Shelby surface at Wrigley Field? Over the past month, Miller's pitching seemed to undergo a transformation. He stopped over-throwing his four-seamer and began to rely more on curves and sinkers. Not coincidentally, he reduced his walks and stopped serving so many homers. He went at least six innings in six straight starts, with a 1.62 ERA. In half of those outings, he didn't issue a walk or give up a home run.
But against the Cubs, Miller went back to the four-seamer even though he had trouble keeping it down in the zone. Almost predictably, he walked two and gave up two homers, and his night was over before the end of the fifth inning. In manager Mike Matheny's presser, televised on FOX Sports Midwest's Cardinals Live postgame show, he did not sound thrilled with the change in Miller's approach.
"He was OK," Matheny said. "It was working at the beginning, striking out three of the first four guys he saw with fastballs at the top of the zone. Seemed like he had that late life. That's also a dangerous way to pitch, as we saw."
Matheny opined that Miller didn't have a good feel for his other pitches and because his four-seamer was popping, he "let it eat." Miller finished with eight strikeouts, a season high, but the problem with the high fastball is that if you don't get it high enough, it's more likely to leave the ballpark than a sinker that you miss with low.
"I needed to get the ball down better," said Miller, adding that he also rushed his delivery more than he had been when using his more varied repertoire.
"There's a rhythm he has when he's pitching instead of (when he's) letting it fly," Matheny said.
Whatever the reason for his pitching in what ended as a 4-3, 10-inning loss, the 23-year-old right-hander took a step back and clouded an already-fuzzy outlook for the Cardinals' rotation moving forward. Miller, for example, might have made his final start of the season with the 4 1/3-inning, three-runs-allowed outing. Or he could start again Sunday and enter the National League Division Series as the No. 3 starter.
All the Cardinals have disclosed is that John Lackey will start the series finale at Wrigley Field tonight and, following an off day Thursday, that Michael Wacha's comeback will continue Friday at Arizona. After that, the pitching plans will depend largely on where the Cardinals stand in the postseason picture.
Their magic number to clinch the NL Central remains four and their lead is down to 1 1/2 games over the Pirates, which means the Cardinals can secure the division title no sooner than Friday. If they have wrapped up the title by the weekend, perhaps they would rest Lance Lynn on Saturday and Adam Wainwright on Sunday. Or, more likely, they could send them out for abbreviated starts to stay sharp for the NLDS, which doesn't begin until five days after the final regular-season game.
Watch the Cardinals Live pregame and postgame shows before and after every St. Louis Cardinals game on FOX Sports Midwest.
If the weekend arrives and the Pirates remain in pursuit, starting Lynn on Saturday and Wainwright on Sunday would seem to be no-brainers. But do that and the Cardinals would be left with Miller as the most likely candidate to start Monday if a tiebreaker game against Pittsburgh were needed to determine the division winner.
If the Cardinals end up as division champs, they will need a maximum of four starters for the NLDS. With Wainwright and Lynn the only certainties, one of the threesome of Miller, Lackey or Wacha would be left out. Because Miller had been pitching so well, to omit him after one off night would seem almost cruel after he was passed over last October. But as Matheny will tell you, the Cardinals are in the winning business, not the business of protecting feelings.
Miller could have made their decision easier with a better performance against the Cubs. But now he's left to hope that one appearance by old Shelby won't keep new Shelby shelved in October.
You can follow Stan McNeal on Twitter at @StanMcNeal or email him at stanmcneal@gmail.com.
