Over at FanGraphs, we’ve written a lot lately about the “third time through the order penalty” and the effect it has on postseason bullpen strategy.
If you read FanGraphs regularly, you can skip this paragraph. If you don’t, I’ll do my best to explain quickly. Pitching is tough on a human being’s arm. As the game goes on, a pitcher fatigues. As a pitcher fatigues, he becomes less effective. This is intuitive. Dig into the numbers a little bit and you’ll find that, league-wide, pitchers suffer extreme performance loss their third time through an order. By that point, even the game’s most dominant starters are likely no better than the top couple relief options.
So there we have it. More often than not, the hook should be quick for a starter in the postseason, provided that there’s a nice weapon or two waiting in the bullpen.
At least that’s how we, as nerdy analysts, think. Most MLB managers don’t actually play it that way. Instead, managers tend to trust their starters deep into the ballgame, provided they’re pitching well on that particular night.
This got me thinking: during the postseason, as long as the damage is limited, can a high pitch count from your team’s starting pitcher actually be a blessing in disguise? I think it could be.
Say Jason Vargas starts a game for the Royals and runs up his pitch count to 100 by the fifth inning while only allowing a run or two. This gives Ned Yost an excuse to go to his dynamite bullpen early in the game, something the numbers argue is the right strategy anyway.
Tonight, Adam Wainwright ran up his pitch count early while Madison Bumgarner kept his low. I thought this had the potential to play out in a way where the Cardinals used various relievers to shut down the Giants while Bumgarner fatigued and blew the lead late in the game, but that wasn’t the case, as Bumgarner cruised through nearly eight shutouts innings.
But still, it’s something worth watching as the postseason goes on. If your team’s starting pitcher runs up his pitch count in the early innings, it’s not the end of the world – so long as he keeps in the game in check. In fact, it might just be a blessing in disguise.
