There’s an overwhelming hubris within fantasy football, as owners imagine themselves as an astute contingent. Their collective pigskin prudence is unparalleled, possessing the sagacity and foresight to predict which players will excel in the fantasy forum. Granted, the rare Michael Vick manifestation will transpire, but on a whole, seldom do they miscalculate a player’s value heading into the season.
So when Ryan Fitzpatrick stupefies, Cam Newton electrifies and Rex Grossman petrifies against an owner’s preseason preconceptions, the tendency is to discount the effort and chalk it up to circumstance. Surely, Beanie Wells won’t continue to submit solid outings, and Knowshon Moreno can’t possibly be that bad, right?
Well, not necessarily. While the consensus opinion states that these outputs are statistical anomalies, history tells us otherwise. For it was just last year at this juncture of the season that the majority of the football world waved aside Arian Foster’s monster performance against Indianapolis (231 yards, three touchdowns), belittling the big day rather than realizing its’ platform for Foster’s breakout campaign.
Will this pattern render itself in 2011? Rather than marvel at the production from Fitzpatrick, Grossman, and Joe Flacco, most of the conversation seems to revolve around the sorrowful showings of their opposition. Chad Henne had the quietest 416-yard passing game in NFL history thanks to Tom Brady. Newton has received praise for his display in the desert, but almost every compliment comes with the asterisk of, “Well, it was against the Cardinals.” The Arizona secondary won’t be confused with the ’85 Bears anytime soon, but 422 yards on any NFL defense is noteworthy nevertheless.
Yet how do fantasy owners decipher which exploits were fact from fiction? A quick rundown of some of the more debated playmakers from Week 1:
Cam Newton, Panthers: Buy
Expect last year’s Heisman winner to get chewed up against a resolute Green Bay defense this week, followed by countless “I told you Newton wasn’t ready!” columns…only for Newton to go nuts against Jacksonville in Week 3. There’s a baseless concern that Newton lacks the necessary horses in the receiving game to continue this dominance; however, Newton has the services of a loaded backfield, two serviceable tight ends and a rejuvenated Steve Smith at his disposal. The Panthers won’t dazzle in the win column, but expect Newton to light up scoreboards, real and fantasy, all season long.
Chad Henne, Dolphins: Sell
If you thought Henne’s achievements were overshadowed by Brady’s career-game, here’s the eclipsed fundamental truth ascertained from the Dolphins-Pat contest on Monday night: the New England secondary is frighteningly horrendous, even worse than the 2010 squad that surrendered 258.5 yards per game. Miami’s slate is far from arduous, and if Brandon Marshall has truly overcome his off-the-field issues, this item may need to be revisited. However, Henne’s past executions, or lack thereof, makes the Dolphin QB an unknown entity at this stage.
Beanie Wells, Cardinals: Buy
Wells finally showcased the talent that made him a first-round selection in 2009, rushing for 90 yards and a touchdown on 18 carries. I’m not the biggest proponent of Kevin Kolb, and the lack of formidable foes in the NFC West should facilitate Wells into a tour de force. Would like to see one or two more strong games from Wells before I pronounce his eminence, but outlying factors seem to signal a solid year for the Cardinal rusher. Speaking of Arizona backs…
Tim Hightower, Redskins: Sell
At first glance, Hightower’s numbers against New York indicate a respectable performance: 72 yards and a score on the ground with three receptions for 25 yards in the passing game. Alas, Hightower was allotted 25 carries, equating to a putrid 2.9 average. Add in the fact that Mike Shanahan will undoubtedly throw everyone off by inexplicably giving Roy Helu or Ryan Torain 20 touches at some point and I’m down on Hightower’s fantasy prospects.
Devery Henderson, Saints: Buy
After posting 51 receptions for 804 yards in 2009, Henderson fell off the fantasy map with just 34 catches and 464 yards last season. But with the former LSU Tiger’s six-reception, 100-yard outing in Week 1’s epic showdown against Green Bay, coupled with primary target Marques Colston’s injury, Henderson could finally erupt as a consistent contributor in 2011.
Jordy Nelson, Packers: Sell
I think Nelson is legit, but the Packer passing attack is too loaded to implement Nelson as a dependable receiver in your lineup. If injuries begin to hamper the WR corps, reevaluate this stance, but expect a roller coaster harvest from Nelson this season.
Jermaine Gresham, Bengals: Buy
Whether it’s Andy Dalton or Bruce Gradkowski, the Cincinnati front line is leaky enough that the starting signal caller will need to rid the ball in a hurry. This trend exhibited itself last week into multiple targets to Gresham, who finished with six receptions for 58 yards and a touchdown. With tough defenses on the Cincinnati schedule, Gresham will be featured early and often in the Bengal passing attack.
Tony Gonzalez, Falcons: Sell
Don’t be fooled by the perennial Pro Bowler’s day of five receptions for 72 yards. Gonzalez, while still effective, is at the end of the road in terms of fantasy relevance. Once Julio Jones becomes fully acclimated into the offense, assume Gonzalez’s looks will significantly decrease.
