Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez has been fairly transparent when it comes to his pitching staff. It is expected to be the strength of the team, despite youth, the thus-far-unknown commodity at the No. 5 spot and bounce-back needs from two or three of the five names.
Add that on top of the fact that there are big shoes to fill -- Braves starters finished second in innings pitched, fifth in ERA and sixth in fielding-independent pitching (FIP) last season -- and it will not be an easy road, especially if the offense does not provide substantially more support. Here are three questions facing Atlanta's starting pitchers in 2015:
Featuring Julio Teheran, Alex Wood and Shelby Miller, the top of the Braves rotation features one of the most talented young trios in baseball. Teheran and Wood, of course, are the incumbents slotted for the Nos. 1-2 slots, the righty-lefty combo that is under team control until 2020. Miller came over as the MLB-ready return in the offseason Jason Heyward blockbuster, and while his overall 2014 numbers were underwhelming, there is a belief within the organization that his strong finish hints at better things to come.
Some believe, despite his struggles, Miller is the best pitcher on the active roster. In their prospect breakdown, FanGraphs listed Miller as the No. 4 overall 27-and-under big-league asset in the Braves system behind Freddie Freeman, Andrelton Simmons and Craig Kimbrel. Though I'd question that particular order -- Julio Teheran as the sixth-best asset despite a club-friendly long-term deal? A closer who pitches fewer than 70 innings per year valued more than three talented 24-year-old starters? -- it's a clear indication of what many still think Miller can become.
It's also a recognition of where he, along with Teheran and Wood, have already been.
In terms of under-25 starters on active rosters entering spring training, the Braves feature the second-most productive group over the past two seasons. They rank first in innings pitched (974 1/3), second in WAR (11.8) and third in ERA over that span -- ranking just behind the Marlins' group of Jose Fernandez, Henderson Alvarez, Jarred Cosart and Brad Hand. And while there may not be an absolute superstar among that trio, they provide a more-than-stable foundation for John Hart to build around.
(In total, the NL East features three teams in the top-five on this under-25 productivity list, including the Mets at No. 4, and that's with Fernandez missing all but eight starts in his age-22 season -- not to mention top prospects Lucas Giolito (Nationals) and Noah Syndergaard (Mets) coming up their respective pipelines. The division as a whole is loaded with young pitching talent.)
So, to answer the question, very good. Maybe great. Teheran should fill the No. 1 role until further notice. In two full seasons, he's posted a high-level 3.58 FIP and 3.03 ERA in more than 400 innings pitched. Wood has yet to suffer a professional setback despite bouncing in between the rotation and bullpen in his first two MLB seasons, and now that he's no longer facing an innings limit his production (career 3.07 FIP and 2.89 ERA) may provide even more value. Miller has suffered a setback -- a sophomore slump as it turns out -- but he says he figured things out down the stretch and his numbers support that theory. Working with pitching coach Roger McDowell should not hurt his cause, either.
The Braves' Nos. 1-3 starters should not be expected to match the likes of the Nationals or Dodgers in 2015, but they should keep the team competitive in the vast majority of their starts.
All of that top-of-the-rotation future optimism aside, Roger McDowell has his work cut out for him in 2015.
Practically any way the pie is sliced, Atlanta's current active roster would have been one of the least valuable starting units a year ago. The same could be said of a two-year sample size. And a three-year sample size. Held back primarily by the struggles of Miller, Mike Minor and whichever rookie or reclamation project claims the fifth starting spot, Atlanta's present roster would have finished dead last in WAR among starting pitchers in 2014.
This is what's left behind the wake of Harang and Santana, late additions to Atlanta's 2014 roster that either met or, especially in Harang's case, far exceeded expectations. Both signed elsewhere as free agents (Santana's departure providing a compensation draft pick). Replicating their productivity will not be a simple case of plugging in Miller and assuming the new No. 5 can match Harang. Those two departed starters ate up 400 innings, claimed sub-4.00 ERAs and totaled a 5.3 WAR. Let's assume that Wandy Rodriguez wins the fifth starter job: he and Miller combined for a negative WAR. Same goes for Eric Stults in the No. 5 spot. A Miller-Mike Foltynewicz replacement duo produced replacement-level numbers.
If the three pitchers behind Teheran and Wood replicate their 2014 numbers, the Braves rotation is going to take a monumental step back.
That's how good the Santana-Harang duo was for Fredi Gonzalez & Co. last season. That's also how much three fifths of this current rotation struggled in 2014.
Of course, this time last season the names Ervin Santana and Aaron Harang were not even on the franchise's radar -- not until Kris Medlen and Brandon Beachy suffered elbow injuries in spring training did Atlanta take a chance on Harang and pony up financially for Santana -- so things can always change over the next two months. Maybe there's another signing coming. Maybe not. And whether it's Harang or Freddy Garcia or Gavin Floyd or Ben Sheets, McDowell has proven in recent years that he can find production, albeit occasionally in small doses, from a variety of sources.
Braves starters finished fifth in ERA while pitching the second-most innings in baseball last season. Not that retaining Santana and Harang would have provided any guarantees -- or even been healthy for the organization in the grand scheme of things -- but it's going to take some work to get back to that point.
Over the past three seasons, the Braves' starting rotation has pitched the fourth-most innings in baseball. Whether that has been a concerted effort to protect the bullpen -- a group that was hit by arm injuries early in Gonzalez's tenure, most notably Eric O'Flaherty and Jonny Venters -- or simply the way things have shaken out with the team's starters pitching well deep into close games, it's worth wondering.
With such a young rotation (at least four starters are 27 and under), will it be more of the same in 2015?
Teheran and Minor have crossed the 200-plus innings mark once in their careers. Miller's career high sits at 183. Wood is in a similar boat (171 2/3), though both are prepping to handle the likes of 30 to 35 starts and 200-plus innings. If they go the veteran route with the fifth starter, Rodriguez, Stults and Chien Ming-Wang have each handled 200-plus innings in their careers -- although that might not be realistic in the present tense due to injury histories, age and so on.
Over the past three seasons, only 11 starting rotations have eclipsed the 1,000-inning mark in a single season. After adding a boatload of relief arms on short-term deals in the offseason, it's difficult to envision the Braves hitting that milestone for the second straight season.
