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The Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ schedule has been released, and it includes familiar rivals (Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers and New Orleans Saints), first-year coach intrigue (Arizona Cardinals, Buffalo Bills and Philadelphia Eagles), two of the league’s powers (New England Patriots and San Francisco 49ers), one of the league’s sideshows (New York Jets) and a Sunshine State test (Miami Dolphins) for good measure.
Welcome to the countdown to Kickoff 2013. Of course, more will be learned in time about what kind of team the Bucs will field to face those opponents. Potential starters will be targeted in next week’s draft, and drama surrounding the future of Jets cornerback Darrelle Revis remains a major offseason storyline.
But keep an eye on how much progress is made later this fall. The Bucs were a respectable 7-9 last season under first-year coach Greg Schiano, but the NFC South should be stronger with the Saints free from the Bountygate scandal that hindered their campaign to become the first team to play in a Super Bowl in their home stadium.
Meanwhile, Tampa Bay draws the AFC East, which presents some winnable games but also a matchup against one of the NFL’s most prolific offensive minds in Tom Brady.
We’re still about five months from kickoff, but it’s never too early to glance ahead to what the Bucs will face this fall. One thing is for certain: Variety is aplenty.
Week 1: at New York Jets (6-10), Sunday, Sept. 8, 1 p.m.
Historically, the Jets have dominated their series with the Bucs, but this could be Tampa Bay’s year to take advantage of New York’s uncertainty. Mark Sanchez has lost his franchise’s trust, there’s mystery surrounding Darrelle Revis — will he or won’t he go to Tampa Bay? — and Rex Ryan doesn’t have much room for error. The Bucs last appeared in East Rutherford, N.J., on Oct. 9, 2005, a 14-12 Jets victory.
All-time series record: The Jets lead 9-1. The Jets hold a 6-0 edge at home.
Last meeting: Jets 26, Bucs 3 (at Tampa Bay, Dec. 13, 2009)
Week 2: vs. New Orleans Saints (7-9), Sunday, Sept. 15, 4:05 p.m.
Despite an uncommon year for New Orleans, Tampa Bay failed to earn at least one victory against the troubled Saints in 2012. The Bucs gained 513 yards during the game in Tampa, but the Saints still edged the Bucs 35-28 that day behind 377 yards passing and four touchdowns from Drew Brees. As Tampa Bay evolves under Schiano, the Bucs must show that they can beat NFC South elites such as New Orleans and Atlanta.
All-time series record: The Saints lead 25-17. The Saints hold an 11-7 edge on the road.
Last meeting: Saints 41, Bucs 0 (at New Orleans, Dec. 16, 2012)
Week 3: at New England Patriots (12-4), Sunday, Sept. 22, 1 p.m.
It’s no surprise, but this will be Tampa Bay’s greatest test against AFC East competition. The Bucs last appeared at Gillette Stadium on Dec. 17, 2005, a 28-0 Patriots victory. Tampa Bay will receive an up-close look at Tom Brady’s attempt to move beyond Wes Welker, now with the Denver Broncos. Danny Amendola, formerly of the St. Louis Rams, can be a solid slot option if healthy. Regardless, this will be a tall task for the Bucs.
All-time series record: The Patriots lead 5-2. The Patriots hold a 2-1 edge at home.
Last meeting: Patriots 35, Bucs 7 (at London, Oct. 25, 2009)
Week 4: vs. Arizona Cardinals (5-11), Sunday, Sept. 29, 1 p.m.
Perhaps no team last season had a swifter fall than Arizona. The Cardinals started 4-0 but lost 11 of their last 12 games in what became Ken Whisenhunt’s swan song. Bruce Arians, formerly the Indianapolis Colts’ offensive coordinator, was hired to try to fix a franchise that finished in the NFC West basement. He’ll likely do so with former Colts backup Drew Stanton behind center. The Bucs and Cardinals are rare opponents, having played just three times since 1997. But Tampa Bay has won six of the eight games between the two dating to 1989.
All-time series record: The Bucs lead 9-8. The Bucs hold a 6-4 edge at home.
Last meeting: Bucs 38, Cardinals 35 (at Arizona, Oct. 31, 2010)
Week 5: Bye
Week 6: vs. Philadelphia Eagles (4-12), Sunday, Oct. 13, 1 p.m.
Chip Kelly brings no shortage of intrigue when the Eagles visit Raymond James Stadium. The former Oregon coach could change the NFL with his unorthodox, fast-paced offensive system that brought him so much success in the college ranks. It will be interesting to see if Michael Vick is the team’s quarterback come this matchup, or if Nick Foles breaks through to be named Philadelphia’s starter. Either way, the Bucs’ defense must be prepared for this one.
All-time series record: The Eagles lead 9-7. Each team is 3-3 at Tampa Bay.
Last meeting: Eagles 23, Bucs 21 (at Tampa Bay, Dec. 9, 2012)
Week 7: at Atlanta Falcons (13-3), Sunday, Oct. 20, 1 p.m.
The task is simple: If the Bucs want to consider themselves among the NFC South’s best, they must beat the division’s class at least once, perhaps on the road. The Bucs ended a string of futility at the Georgia Dome by winning there late last season, snapping a streak of four consecutive losses at the site. Road victories will be hard to come by in what should be a more competitive NFC South. Earning a victory here would enhance their playoff prospects.
All-time series record: The Bucs lead 20-19. The Falcons hold a 10-8 edge at home.
Last meeting: Bucs 22, Falcons 17 (at Atlanta, Dec. 30, 2012)
Week 8: vs. Carolina Panthers (7-9), Thursday, Oct. 24, 8:25 p.m.
The Bucs took both games from the Panthers last season, continuing a trend of season sweeps between these division rivals each year since 2009. (Tampa Bay also swept the series in 2010 during that span.)
Which Carolina team will Tampa Bay see this year: One led by a confident Cam Newton or one that suffered last season because of his erratic play? The Bucs intercepted Newton twice at Raymond James Stadium in 2012. Newton, perhaps more than any other player, will dictate the result.
All-time series record: The Panthers lead 14-11. The Panthers hold a 7-5 edge on the road.
Last meeting: Bucs 27, Panthers 21 (at Carolina, Nov. 18, 2012)
Week 9: at Seattle Seahawks (11-5), Sunday, Nov. 3, 4:05 p.m.
Under Pete Carroll, the Seahawks have established themselves as the clear No. 2 in the NFC West behind the 49ers. An arms race in free agency this offseason showed Seattle’s ambitions to close the gap between it and its Bay Area rival.
Adding wide receiver Percy Harvin, formerly of the Minnesota Vikings, was a savvy move. Tampa Bay doesn’t have much history against Seattle, but the Bucs have won the past three meetings between them.
All-time series record: The Seahawks lead 7-4. The Seahawks hold a 3-2 edge at home.
Last meeting: Bucs 38, Seahawks 15 (at Tampa Bay, Dec. 26, 2010)
Week 10: vs. Miami Dolphins (7-9), Monday, Nov. 11, 8:40 p.m.
New look, new logo, a continuation of a new chapter. The first season of the Joe Philbin era closed with a 7-9 record. In many ways, it was a time of growth in South Florida, with rookie Ryan Tannehill behind center. He finished with 3,294 yards passing and 12 touchdowns with 13 interceptions in leading Miami to a second-place finish in the AFC East.
These Sunshine State teams haven’t met as often in the regular season as one might think. Games between the two have happened nine times overall and just three times since 2000.
All-time series record: The Dolphins lead 5-4. The Bucs hold a 3-2 edge at home.
Last meeting: Dolphins 25, Bucs 23 (at Miami, Nov. 15, 2009)
Week 11: vs. Atlanta Falcons (13-3), Sunday, Nov. 17, 1 p.m.
The defending NFC South champions received a boost when Tony Gonzalez, a future Hall of Famer, chose to return. The offense also gained an asset by signing former St. Louis Rams running back Steven Jackson in free agency.
With Matt Ryan returning after a career season, they’re a safe pick to repeat as division champs. The Bucs have had a hard time of late against the Falcons at Raymond James Stadium, winning just once there since 2009.
All-time series record: The Bucs lead 20-19. The Bucs hold a 12-9 edge at home.
Last meeting: Bucs 22, Falcons 17 (at Atlanta, Dec. 30, 2012)
Week 12: at Detroit Lions (4-12), Sunday, Nov. 24, 1 p.m.
The Lions followed their first playoff berth since 1999 with a poor showing last year. Of course, Calvin Johnson will present a large test for a secondary that was the NFL’s worst last season.
Contain him, and the Bucs could have a better-than-average chance to win at Ford Field. Lose track of him, and it could be a long day in the secondary. This will be the Bucs’ first trip to Detroit since a 38-20 victory on Nov. 23, 2008. The Lions have won three of the past four meetings between the teams.
All-time series record: The Lions lead 29-26. The Lions hold a 15-12 edge at home.
Last meeting: Lions 27, Bucs 20 (at Tampa Bay, Sept. 11, 2011)
Week 13: at Carolina Panthers (7-9), Sunday, Dec. 1, 1 p.m.
The Bucs have enjoyed success against the Panthers recently, and history suggests a victory here is there for the taking. Tampa Bay has won four of the past six games against Carolina dating to the 2010 season.
On paper, the Bucs are better than the Panthers, and they must prove it in Charlotte, where they have split their past four games. Little is predictable in division play, and it’s hard to demand another sweep of the Panthers following last year’s results. Still, Carolina remains one of the NFC South’s most vulnerable teams.
All-time series record: The Panthers lead 14-11. The Panthers hold a 7-6 edge at home.
Last meeting: Bucs 27, Panthers 21 (at Carolina, Nov. 18, 2012)
Week 14: vs. Buffalo Bills (6-10), Sunday, Dec. 8, 1 p.m.
It was an offseason of change in Buffalo, and that’s a good thing for the Bills. Former Syracuse coach Doug Marrone was hired to replace Chan Gailey, and underwhelming quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick was cut in March. Who knows what test awaits the Bucs when these teams play for just the fourth time since 2000? The Bills last appeared at Raymond James Stadium on Sept. 18, 2005, a 19-3 Bucs victory.
All-time series record: The Bucs lead 6-3. The Bucs hold a 6-2 edge at home.
Last meeting: Bills 33, Bucs 20 (at Buffalo, Sept. 20, 2009)
Week 15: vs. San Francisco 49ers (11-4-1), Sunday, Dec. 15, 1 p.m.
The defending NFC champions should be favorites to advance deep in the playoffs again. Jim Harbaugh’s choice of Colin Kaepernick over Alex Smith last season proved to be the right one, and the young quarterback figures to improve this fall as he matures. How will Kaepernick evolve with new faces? Wide receiver Anquan Boldin’s addition in free agency was a savvy move.
This game also will be a reunion of sorts for Dashon Goldson, who signed a five-year, $41.25 million deal with the Bucs in free agency. The two-time Pro Bowl safety spent the first six years of his NFL career with the 49ers.
All-time series record: The 49ers lead 16-5. The 49ers hold a 4-3 edge on the road.
Last meeting: 49ers 48, Bucs 3 (at San Francisco, Oct. 9, 2011)
Week 16: at St. Louis Rams (7-8-1), Sunday, Dec. 22, 1 p.m.
There were noticeable improvements last season for the NFL’s worst franchise from 2007 to ’11 (a 15-65 record). The defense, behind new secondary members such as Cortland Finnegan and Janoris Jenkins, added bite to a previously timid unit. Though he struggled at times, Sam Bradford showed flashes of why Jeff Fisher was eager to work with the young talent upon taking the coaching job before last season. The Bucs last played at St. Louis on Oct. 18, 2004, a 28-21 Rams victory.
All-time series record: The Rams lead 12-8. The Rams hold a 6-1 edge at home.
Last meeting: Rams 28, Bucs 13 (at Tampa Bay, Dec. 23, 2012)
Week 17: at New Orleans Saints (7-9), Sunday, Dec. 29, 1 p.m.
No trip to the Mercedes-Benz Superdome is simple, but expect the home crowd to have more energy this season with the return of Sean Payton. Despite the Saints’ atrocious defense last season, they shutout the Bucs in a 41-0 thumping in New Orleans that served as a rare bright moment under former defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo. After sweeping the Saints in the 2011 campaign, the Bucs have lost three consecutive games to the black and gold.
All-time series record: The Saints lead 25-17. The Saints hold a 14-10 edge at home.
Last meeting: Saints 41, Bucs 0 (at New Orleans, Dec. 16, 2012)
The Eagles were a lost cause last season, but Chip Kelly’s hire means they’ll be one of the most fascinating teams to follow.
Will his offensive scheme made famous at Oregon translate to the NFL? Will he experience a steep learning curve? How will defenses strategize against an up-tempo approach that transformed Kelly, New Hampshire’s offensive coordinator just seven years ago, into a hot commodity?
The Bucs were elite against the run last season, leading the league by surrendering just 82.5 yards per game, but they’ll be tested against one of the NFL’s largest unknowns. It seems unreasonable to think that Kelly can flip Philadelphia from 4-12 to an NFC East contender in his rookie season.
Still, there’s reason to believe in him: Kelly won at least 10 games each season and 12 three times in his four-year tenure with the Ducks. Keep this date circled.
Who doesn’t love watching Tom Brady work? OK, so Gerald McCoy, Dashon Goldson and Mark Barron might disagree, but the Patriots are always must-see action. This offseason in Foxborough has had plenty of drama, so it will be fascinating to watch how Brady develops chemistry in life after Wes Welker.
If healthy, Danny Amendola can be a significant threat, as shown by his value to the St. Louis Rams the past four seasons. Still, Brady’s favorite sawed-off target will be missed.
These Patriots aren’t as strong as some of their predecessors, but they’ll still be a test for the Bucs. For Tampa Bay, it’s not unreasonable to expect at least three victories against the AFC East.
The Jets are the Jets, the Dolphins are searching and who knows what the Bills will look like without a proven quarterback. Stealing a victory at Gillette Stadium might be asking too much. But if the Bucs want to be considered a postseason contender, winning in Brady’s backyard would show they’re a threat.
It’s tempting to say the Falcons, but the Saints could have the NFL’s strongest recovery this season. Sean Payton is back, Steve Spagnuolo’s failed defensive schemes are gone and the Bountygate scandal is part of the past.
New Orleans missed the playoffs last season for the first time since 2008, and it’s a safe bet that Payton will have players motivated to try to rebound from an anything-but-normal 2012.
For as awful as the Saints’ defense was last season – historically, it was the NFL’s worst – Brees was stellar once again. The Saints ranked first in passing offense (312.3 yards per game) and third in scoring (28.8 points per game).
However, partly because Brees pressed to compensate for the defense’s woes, he threw 19 interceptions – the second-most of his career, behind the 22 from 2010. There are some unknowns about New Orleans leading into the season, but that’s why the Saints are dangerous.
This year will be more difficult. The NFC South was down last season, with the Falcons as the only team to finish with a winning record, yet the Bucs missed the playoffs for a fifth consecutive campaign.
Atlanta will remain a favorite, and expect New Orleans to be stronger. Tampa Bay should take a few games from the AFC East. But matchups with the NFC West, especially against the Seahawks and 49ers, will be tests.
That’s not to say the Bucs can’t compete for the postseason. But such an effort would require splitting games against the Saints and Falcons and likely beating the Panthers twice. A 7-9 record last season was a decent start to the Schiano era, but at least eight victories should be the goal this fall.
You can follow Andrew Astleford on Twitter @aastleford
or email him at aastleford@gmail.com.
