BEREA, Ohio - I'll let somebody else play the record prediction game. I've never been right anyway.
So, how about three reasons for optimism surrounding the Cleveland Browns as they prepare to kick off the 2014 season. And, three reasons such optimism seems to be a stretch.
Here goes...
1. The Browns defense should be pretty good and might be really good
The ingredients are there. The defensive line is the team's deepest and strongest area. There's a nice mix of youth and experience, and there's some versatility. Karlos Dansby should be an upgrade at inside linebacker, rookie Christian Kirksey looks ready to contribute and also be an upgrade, and a creative, complicated scheme should be bringing blitzers from all angles. The secondary should be better, too -- it's clearly a priority with 12 defensive backs on the 53-man roster -- with Donte Whitner bringing leadership, Tashaun Gispon ascending, Joe Haden locked up long term and first-round rookie Justin Gilbert on hand, even if he is still very much a work in progress. The Browns should force turnovers, should have better overall defensive quickness than they had a year ago and should be better at getting to opposing quarterbacks, too. It looks like the Browns want to play many more 20-13 games than 31-28 ones, so it's on the defense to set the tone.
And on the flip side...
1. The defense might be on the field an awful lot
Let's address the offense later. First, the Browns defense will have to stop the run -- it hasn't really happened since the early 1990s -- and for as great as the blitz schemes might be, the pass rush will only be feared when Paul Kruger and Barkevious Mingo prove to be able to consistently get to opposing quarterbacks. The Browns have to finish tackles, hold opponents to field goals instead of touchdowns and set the offense up with scoring opportunities. Until we see differently, it's hard to imagine the Browns being able to challenge opponents vertically or score a bunch of touchdowns. So, good starts become crucial. So, too, does turnover margin and time of possession. It's going to have be complementary football, because the ceiling for a team with a pretty good defense and a pretty average offense is pretty much as low it's been the last five years or so.
2. The offense has nowhere to go but up
The Browns should be better after their early bye week and specifically into November than they are now. That's both expected and anticipated with new coaches, new schemes, new players, etc. Perhaps you've seen this movie before? The preseason was pretty much a disaster, but preseasons generally only get remembered when key players get hurt, and the Browns enter the season healthy. What the preseason didn't show was a full-game commitment to running the ball, winning the field position battle, taking a few well-timed shots down the field and a team just trying to manage its way into a chance to win in the fourth quarter. There's a chance this running game could be good -- with as much invested in this offensive line, it had better be -- and if the Browns can run, life will get much easier for quarterback Brian Hoyer and the defense. The bar is low, and that's a good thing. The offense should get better as it goes, and if the Browns escape the first three at 1-2 heading into the bye, there will be plenty of season left to improve.
2. The offense scares absolutely nobody
What's the best thing to call this receiving corps? Shaky? Smaller than the average drumline? Totally unproven? Losing Josh Gordon was a huge blow to the Browns, but that's not the only problem. It doesn't appear there's better than a No. 3-type receiver anywhere else on the roster, and the offense as a whole has done little to indicate it's going to challenge defenses beyond eight yards past the line of scrimmage. Maybe a preseason quarterback competition didn't help overall growth, but it seems like no one has fully grasped a complicated offense to this point. Now, the games count and defenses are coming full speed. The Browns are going to need both explosion and variety from the offense to win any significant number of games; is there any chance they'll find those?
3. There are some pieces in the right places
Last year, the Browns stumbled to 4-12 (again) under shaky overall leadership, starting at the very top. The run game was non-existent. The defense was gassed. The starting quarterback was over his head, but the team still was at 3-2 after five games. There are a bunch of close games in the NFL, and teams that win field position, time of possession and the turnover battle put themselves in position to win those games. The overall management is better even if the roster still isn't up to par with the rest of the division, and a more mature team and a defense that makes a few more timely plays could change more than a couple results. No one is thinking Super Bowl, but general manager Ray Farmer has to be thinking he'll see both progress and some wins to verify it. Head coach Mike Pettine believes he'll see a tough team that gives up nothing easily. If Hoyer can be at least efficient and the Browns steadily improve, they could play in at least few significant games in the back half of the season. Maybe, finally, they'll be good enough to win a couple.
3. There just aren't enough pieces
Good teams score in bunches - almost all of them throw the ball down the field. Maybe things are better upstairs in Berea and better set for the future, but six undrafted rookies made the initial 53-man roster. The receiving corps looks like it could be the league's worst. If the Browns are going to be better the rookies figure to be a part of it, but Gilbert has to improve in a hurry and Johnny Manziel couldn't win the starting quarterback job even as Hoyer struggled. History says quarterback issues and questions turn into quarterback problems, and though no one's judging the offense until it plays some real games, what possibly could be hiding behind some sort of curtain? Another new coach, another new system, another building project in progress. Who really thinks the immediate results will be much better than they were on the last few tries?
