Two months ago, as the Braves were in town visiting the Los Angeles Dodgers, entering the epicenter of Puig-Mania, a national column offered up Jason Heyward's career — all three-plus years of it — as a "cautionary tale."
The warning signs were meant for Yasiel Puig, the Dodgers rookie phenom who continues to torch opposing pitchers, harkening back to the 2010 days when Heyward himself took the majors by storm. At the time, on June 7, Heyward was hitting just .186/.300/.302 with three home runs in 152 plate appearances.
It was a convenient (and well-written) story that even provided a built-in metaphor — Puig's grand slam against the Braves sailed over Heyward's head and into the right field seats of Dodgers Stadium — to punch home the overarching theme: "Don't let the limelight fool you, Yasiel, you could become Jason Heyward if you're not careful." The article was met with the expected backlash, partly deserved, partly not.
The column's built-in fallacy, though, was that Heyward has been a disappointment. To some, maybe he has. The career batting average (.257) and power numbers (69 home runs) have not quite reached their potential. But before turning 24, he's hauled in a Gold Glove, an All-Star nod and finished the 2012 season as one of the 10 most valuable non-pitchers in baseball (6.4 wins above replacement). Heyward celebrates his 24th birthday on Friday — how many young players outside of Mike Trout or Miguel Cabrera would not want those achievements to highlight their resume?
If Heyward is falling short of his potential, then he's falling even shorter of "cautionary tale" territory, even with his underwhelming first half this season.
In fact, over the past decade, only Trout boasts a better pre-age 24 WAR among hitters than Heyward, who is tied with reigning AL MVP Miguel Cabrera for the second-best mark (15.1). Not a large enough sample size? Well, let's throw in the likes of phenoms Ken Griffey Jr., Alex Rodriguez and Albert Pujols. Here are baseball's most valuable non-pitchers in games prior to their 24th birthday over the past 25 years (via Fangraphs):
Ken Griffey Jr.: 28.1
Alex Rodriguez: 25.5
Andruw Jones: 25.4
Albert Pujols: 22.4
Mike Trout: 18.1
Roberto Alomar: 15.1
Jason Heyward: 15.1
Miguel Cabrera: 15.1
Translation: Jason Heyward is one of the best all-around young players of the past 25 years. Go back 50 years and his WAR ranks 12th-best. We're not talking about Jose Guillen or Peter Bergeron here.
It's safe to say that Heyward is rarely associated with the names above, but perhaps he's not as far removed from them as one might think.
Now, a substantial portion of Heyward's career value derives from his defensive abilities, where he is well on his way to posting his fourth-consecutive season of saving 15 or more defensive runs. However, of those players mentioned, he's not alone in that regard.
Heyward's offensive numbers to date, in terms of run creation, are better than both Andruw Jones' and Roberto Alomar's at the same age, two perennial All-Stars who both developed into very good hitters. Not a single sane-minded person would argue for Heyward's pre-24 offensive numbers being comparable to the likes of Griffey or Pujols or Cabrera — .300-plus hitters with at least 100 HRs by their 24th birthday — but, as he's shown during this second half, he's more than capable of posting All-Star-caliber numbers.
Though his defensive numbers held constant, Heyward submitted below-average offensive production during this season's first half.
He missed out on All-Star festivities for the third straight season after hitting just .227/.324/.371 with seven home runs while logging 35 runs and two steals (not to mention undergoing an appendectomy and missing a few weeks in April and May). The 30-30 possibilities faded quickly. Of course, it was during this down period that the case-in-point opinion was offered to Puig. How does a one-time can't-miss prospect continually miss on the career marks expected of him?
Well, during the second half, Heyward is not missing.
The story is once again changing its course.
Regardless of where manager Fredi Gonzalez has slotted Heyward on his lineup card -- leadoff or 2-hole; right or center field -- the 6-foot-5 outfielder has produced. In 17 second-half games, Heyward is hitting at a .281 clip with three home runs and 11 walks. His designation as the team's primary lead-off role has yielded even better results: he's hitting .311/.415/.489 in the top spot. His strikeout rate is at a career low and his walk rate is at a three-year high. He's not struggling.
For a team chasing a historic winning streak -- the Braves enter their weekend series against Marlins on a 13-game streak; the modern-day franchise record is 15 -- Heyward has been one of the better players, both offensively and defensively. He's become a spark, one of many, and the wins keep rolling in.
Given the numbers, it looks as though he's figuring things out once more. That's a dangerous prospect for the National League pennant race.
As was pointed out months ago by many others, Heyward is nobody's cautionary tale. At least not yet, not as he's approaching his 24th birthday with some of the best all-around numbers (comparatively speaking, once again) in the past 50 years. His offensive game has much to improve upon, but that's the beauty of that "youth" thing, right? If his recent production, especially in August, is worth anything, it's this: when Jason Heyward is right with his game, he can prove a lot of folks wrong.
