The games of Week 15 began with a less than enticing matchup in Atlanta. The national viewing audience was presented with the Jaguars once again and, playing for the third time in 11 days, Jacksonville was promptly stomped by Matt Ryan and the surging Falcons.
Nobody loves watching Maurice Jones-Drew run more than I do. I can only scream “Get this guy some help!” at the television so many times before I go hoarse. Jones-Drew posted another strong effort on the ground (112 yards on 17 carries) and fought through the pain of a second-quarter ankle injury.
The Falcons piled up 41 points on the day and everybody got a taste of the action. OK, Tony Gonzalez owners are cursing Roddy White for swiping his would-be touchdown reception (Gonzo had one reception for 14 yards).
• White caught 10 passes for 135 yards with two touchdowns.
• Matt Ryan completed 19-of-26 attempts for 224 yards with three touchdowns. It was a nice, efficient and easy flow in the blowout win.
• Julio Jones caught five passes for 85 yards, including a 29-yard touchdown grab to open the scoring.
• Michael Turner took advantage of a glorious scoring opportunity off of a turnover, his ninth touchdown run of the season.
• The Atlanta defense generated three turnovers, produced five sacks and scored a touchdown on a fumble recovery.
With that game in the rearview mirror, let’s dial up the final piece of the “Lineup Calls” puzzle for Week 15 and plug holes in the secondary positions.
Tight Ends
Exclude: Rob Gronkowski (ignore the fact that DEN has allowed fourth-fewest points to tight ends), Jimmy Graham, Antonio Gates (tough matchup, but he’s in), Jason Witten, Jermichael Finley
Week 15 Heroes
Owen Daniels vs. CAR: Daniels shook off a four-game run of pedestrian performances to emerge as T.J. Yates’ top option in Week 14. He caught seven passes for 100 yards (matching and eclipsing his previous season highs, respectively).
The Panthers rank in the middle of the pack against tight ends, surrendering 4.46 receptions and 59.3 receiving yards per game (four touchdowns). Andre Johnson is expected to sit once again, thereby keeping Daniels in the top spot.
Jake Ballard vs. WAS: Ballard has quietly put together a steady season for fantasy owners. He’s caught three or more passes in nine of his past 10 games, including seven efforts of at least 47 receiving yards. Ballard scored his fourth touchdown of the year in Week 14 against Dallas.
He’s on the board for a big effort this week against Washington. The Redskins have allowed the second-most fantasy points to tight ends (4.8 receptions and 64.8 receiving yards with seven touchdowns). Ballard caught two passes for 59 yards in the season opener.
Brandon Pettigrew at OAK: Pettigrew has been a solid PPR contributor for fantasy owners this season with his 62 receptions. Owners in standard leagues had anticipated more dominance in the low post. Pettigrew had scored twice in the past four weeks so, though his yardage totals have been pedestrian (fewer than 60 receiving yards in nine consecutive games), he’s on the board for Week 15.
The Raiders surrender four receptions and 49.8 receiving yards per game to tight ends and have ceded six touchdowns. Oakland has allowed 80 points in the past two weeks and will be tested by Matthew Stafford and the quick-strike Lions.
Kellen Winslow vs. DAL: We know that red zone appearances by Winslow (and the Buccaneers overall) will be sparse, but few tight ends pile up touches like the eighth-year pro. Winslow caught four or more passes in 10 of his first 13 games this season, though he’s eclipsed 40 receiving yards only seven times (two touchdowns).
Still, he represents a nice, safe play this week against Rob Ryan’s defense. The Cowboys have allowed the seventh-most points to tight ends (5.5 receptions and 65.7 receiving yards per game with five touchdowns). I know you don’t want to trust Josh Freeman and the sinking Buccaneers. You don’t have to go all-in. Winslow merely gives you a safe play.
Week 15 Flop Alerts
Jermaine Gresham at STL: Say what you will about the struggles of the St. Louis Rams this season. They’ve done well to limit opposing tight ends. Do I have a career in “spin?” The Rams have allowed the fewest points to tight ends in the NFL (3.1 receptions and 28.8 receiving yards per game with a single touchdown grab).
Longtime readers know of my “man-crush” for Gresham. He’s caught three or more passes in 10 games this season while averaging 41.1 receiving yards with five touchdowns. Gresham stands as a back-end TE1 or high-TE2 for this matchup.
Greg Olsen at HOU: Olsen ended a four-game scoring drought with a 44-yard touchdown sprint against the Falcons in Week 14. It ended a three-game stretch in which Olsen had recorded 24 receiving yards or fewer.
I’m not bullish on a huge encore performance against the Texans. As you’d expect, the Texans have allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to tight ends (3.5 receptions and 41.8 receiving yards per game with two touchdowns). The absence of Wade Phillips does impact this game to some degree, but I don’t see a breakdown coming. Cam Newton will break containment and improvise a big play or two. I’m hesitant to believe that Olsen will be the playmaker.
Vernon Davis vs. PIT: Do you trust Davis in this playoff week? He’s tied for the 11th-most receptions among tight ends this season, but has logged just one game with more than 41 receiving yards since Week 4 (he ranks 13th in receiving yardage).
The Steelers have allowed the 11th-fewest fantasy points to tight ends (4.7 receptions and 51.5 receiving yards per game with four touchdowns). Davis slides into a back-end TE1 slot because of his high weekly target count and the number of times that tight ends have been targeted against the Steelers. Opponents have targeted their tight ends eight times per contest.
Brent Celek vs. NYJ: Celek remains a solid, albeit unspectacular, option for fantasy owners this week, particularly for those playing out PPR leagues. He’s caught three or more passes in eight consecutive games, including six games with at least 42 receiving yards (though he hasn’t scored since Week 8).
The Jets have allowed 4.9 receptions and 61.2 receiving yards per game with three touchdowns (13th-fewest fantasy points to tight ends).
Week 15 Ninja Alerts
Anthony Fasano at BUF: Fasano is hardly dominant, but he’s become a consistent contributor to the offense under Matt Moore. He’s caught multiple passes in six consecutive games (three games with at least 56 receiving yards), including a touchdown reception (two receptions for eight yards) against the Bills in Week 11.
The Bills have allowed the fifth-most points to tight ends (4.5 receptions and 55.3 receiving yards per game). The defense has also ceded eight tight ends to tight ends to tie Chicago for the most surrendered in the game.
Joel Dreessen vs. CAR: Dreessen scores touchdowns. That’s the bottom line. He caught three passes for 22 yards against the Bengals and scored in his third straight game and sixth of the season. It’s a huge roll of the dice, but the Texans will move the ball against the Panthers on the ground with Arian Foster and Ben Tate to afford T.J. Yates multiple red zone looks.
Kickers
Kicker Plug-In Options
Matt Prater vs. NE: Prater did his best “Super Jock” impression last week against Chicago and gave fantasy owners with yardage bonuses a huge boost. He’s on the board this week against the Patriots for another big game. This is one case where I put the asterisk on the season stats. New England has allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to kickers this season, as 13 of the 18 field goals converted against them came from 20-29 yards. Look for Prater’s strong leg to be tested frequently on Sunday in this marquee matchup.
Lawrence Tynes vs. WAS: Tynes has been one of the most consistent kickers in the game behind Eli Manning. He’s converted multiple field goals in five of the past eight games and logged five games with three PATs during this period.
Tynes is a huge play this week against the Redskins. Washington has allowed the second-most fantasy points to kickers this season, including 29 field goal conversions.
Rob Bironas at IND: Bironas has been an inconsistent option for fantasy owners this season, but you can’t turn away from the glorious opportunity against the Colts. He’s posted three three-field goal games in his past five games, but logged multiple field goals only twice in his other nine games.
Take the repeat of his Week 8 performance here. Bironas converted two field goals and three PATs in that game.
Mike Nugent at STL: Nugent converted four field goals and one PAT to lead the Bengals in last week’s bid to upset the Texans at home. It was just his second multi-field goal game in his past six outings. The recent inconsistency of the Cincinnati offense makes Nugent somewhat of a risk, but it’s hard to ignore the opportunity. The Rams have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to kickers, including 25 field goals and 35 PATs.
Kickers on the Pine
Dan Carpenter at BUF: Would you believe that kickers have converted only 16 field goals against the Bills this season? The Bills rank 26th in total defense, so teams have piled up points with regularity. Unfortunately, kickers have just piled up PAT conversions (41).
Billy Cundiff at SD: Cundiff has been one of the most consistent kickers in fantasyland this season. He’s converted multiple PATs in 11 of 13 games. However, Cundiff’s field goal opportunities have dwindled in recent weeks. He’s converted multiple field goals in just one of the past five games.
The Chargers have allowed the 10th-fewest fantasy points to kickers this season.
Nick Folk at PHI: Folk represents a high-risk, high-reward option for owners this week. He’s averaged a field goal worth of PAT conversions each week this season, but has actually converted multiple field goals (and thus, giving you bonus point opportunities) only six times. In fact, Folk has been shut out in the field goal column three times in the past five games.
Will the Eagles rise up for a huge home contest?
Defenses
Defense Plug-In Options
Arizona vs. CLE: The Browns rank 30th in total offense (13.7 points per game) and have surrendered 33 sacks. Cleveland has turned the ball over 16 times with one defensive touchdown and one special teams touchdown. The likely insertion of Seneca Wallace into the starting lineup changes the complexion of the offense, but this is a squad limping to the finish line. Arizona ranks 18th in total defense (22.2 points allowed per game) and have posted 34 sacks.
The Cardinals have an opportunity to climb back to .500 with a win here. I’m calling on the defense and special teams to put up a huge home effort.
Tennessee at IND: Do I need to elaborate? The Colts rank 29th in total offense (14.2 points scored per game) and have allowed the second-most fantasy points to defenses. Opponents have piled up 24 turnovers, 29 sacks and a touchdown against Kerry Collins, Curtis Painter and Dan Orlovsky.
Dallas at TB: Rob Ryan is being skewered in the press for the failings of the Dallas defense this season. I still can’t look away from this glorious road opportunity against the sinking Buccaneers. Tampa Bay has committed 31 turnovers, including three that were returned for touchdowns and one touchdown on special teams.
Seattle at CHI: The Caleb Hanie experiment extends another week against the intriguing Seattle defense. To his credit, he didn’t turn the ball over against the Broncos. However, the Seahawks represent another difficult challenge. Seattle defends the run well and will force Hanie into disadvantageous passing situations. Ergo, the Seahawks will have opportunities to rack up sacks (he’s taken 15 in the past three weeks) and turnovers.
Cincinnati at STL: The Bengals were one of the hottest fantasy defenses through the first half of the NFL season. Production has slowed in recent weeks, and visions of T.J. Yates’ last-second touchdown pass to Kevin Walter won’t fade quickly. Still, this is a fantastic spot against the hapless Rams. St. Louis has allowed the most fantasy points to defenses this season, including 46 sacks and 21 turnovers, five of which were returned for touchdowns.
Defenses on the Pine
Denver vs. NE: The Denver defense has played exceptional football in the past two months. It took time to get healthy and for the unit to gel, but the defense has steadily improved week after week. I don’t doubt that Von Miller or Elvis Dumervil gets a shot at Brady or that a ball forced into traffic may carom into the arms of a Denver defender. However, turnovers will not be plentiful and New England is going to put up points. I’m a non-believer this week.
New York Jets at PHI: The Jets still rank as a DEF1 unit this week against the inconsistent Eagles. However, the big-play potential remains in the passing game, particularly when you factor in the play of LeSean McCoy. Philadelphia ranks 15th in total offense at 22.8 points scored per contest and has tallied 399 total yards per game. The statistics and the eyeball test say to play the Jets with confidence. My gut tells me otherwise.
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