Baseball analysis is hard.

Baseball analysis is hard.

Published May. 27, 2015 4:57 p.m. ET

This reminded me of something:

It reminded me that the Angels scored a lot of runs last season, and it also reminded me just how hard predicting baseball can be.

Last season the Angels were fourth in the American League in OPS, and first in scoring.

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This season they're last in OPS and next to last in scoring.

Personnel changes? Sure. There have been some.

But of the Angels' 10 most productive hitters last season, eight are still Angels. The only exceptions are Howie Kendrick (Dodgers) and Josh Hamilton (don't ask). Yes, their replacements (Johnny Giavotella and Matt Joyce) have fared poorly (especially Joyce). But the real problem is that with the exceptions of Mike Trout (naturally) and Kole Calhoun, the other six have all been substantially worse than last season.

It was pretty clear that some of those guys were due for regression. But regression doesn't have to bite this hard, and it probably won't all season. Which does bode well for the Angels, who are somehow sitting at .500 despite their execrable hitting.

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