If you believe in the power of mock drafts, Montee Ball's NFL stock has been gang tackled and pushed backward for a loss in recent months. Ball may be Wisconsin's most prolific running back since Ron Dayne, but he doesn't appear to be a first-round pick as Dayne was 13 years ago.
Apparently, he could be far from it.
Several mock drafts list Ball, the all-time FBS touchdown leader, as a third- or fourth-round selection. The NFL Draft begins Thursday with the first round and continues Friday with rounds two and three and Saturday with rounds 4-7.
Taylor Jones, an NFL draft analyst who contributes to FOXSports.com, lists Ball as the fourth-best running back in the draft behind Alabama's Eddie Lacy, UCLA's Johnathan Franklin and North Carolina's Giovani Bernard. The problem is that most pundits believe there won't be a single running back selected in the first round, which could drop Ball even further. And Jones isn't alone in making such an assessment.
FOXSports.com senior NFL writer Peter Schrager lists Ball going in the fourth round, at No. 114 overall to San Diego. Schrager's first tailback taken is Lacy at No. 46 in the second round to St. Louis. He has Bernard in the third round at No. 63 to Kansas City, Michigan State's Le'Veon Bell at No. 80 to Dallas and Franklin at No. 90 to Denver.
WalterFootball.com projects Lacy (46), Franklin (53), Bernard (55) and Bell (90) all ahead of Ball. Even Clemson's Andre Ellington (102) has moved in front of Ball, who is projected to go at No. 112 to Tampa Bay.
Jones said he didn't view Ball as a three-down running back, which hurt his draft stock. He also questioned Ball's ability to be a dynamic receiving threat out of the backfield.
"I think teams are more and more willing to spread it out and have that player that can get the ball in space and say, 'Go make some people miss,' whether it be in the screen game or any type of underneath route," Jones said. "Motion out of the backfield. Line him up in the slot. I just think there's some other players that are more adept at doing that, more so than Montee Ball at this stage of their career."
Another knock on Ball is that he carried the ball too many times in college and therefore has more mileage than other players. Ball carried 924 times in his career. Franklin carried the ball 788 times, Lacy 355, Bernard 423 and Bell 671.
Ball told FOXSportsWisconsin.com last week that he was hearing he would be a mid- or late-second round selection. But the six or seven teams that flew in to Madison to conduct individual workouts with him all expressed varying levels of concern about his number of carries.
"Every team asks me about it," Ball said. "That's every team's worry. But I tell them, it's one play for any player. It takes one play (for an injury), and that's for anybody. It can be a running back's first play ever."
Ball's father, Montee Ball Sr., also tried to lessen the skepticism when it came to his son's number of carries.
"A lot of people say he's got a lot of mileage on his tires," Ball Sr. told FOXSportsWisconsin.com "But you know what? I told him to look at it this way. You had a lot of carries, more than other players, but that's because the team had trust in you that you could protect the ball and you made it four years without an injury. That shows your durability."
The argument Ball has too many college carries would seem to lose merit when compared with Dayne, although the two were different types of running backs. Dayne, the 1999 Heisman Trophy winner, was a workhorse during his Wisconsin career and carried the ball 1,220 times. He went on to be drafted in the first round at No. 11 overall by the New York Giants. Dayne played seven seasons in the NFL.
And if those factors weren't enough, Ball also has taken some heat for running a 4.66 40-yard dash during the NFL Combine in Indianapolis in February. Ball later revealed he was on medication for a sinus infection at the time, and he went on to clock times of 4.46 and 4.49 on the faster indoor surface of the McClain Center during Wisconsin's pro day. Scouts generally view his speed as somewhere in between the 4.5 and 4.6 range.
Other Badgers in the draft mix: While Ball's stock seems to have fallen some, so has the stock of Wisconsin center Travis Frederick.
Frederick ran a 5.56 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine and will likely become the slowest center drafted in 20 years. Iowa's Mike Devlin was the last center to be selected with a worse 40 time, way back in 1993, when he ran a 5.63.
Of course, Jones noted a 40 time is not necessarily a true indicator of a player's talent. Devlin, for example, went on to play seven seasons in the NFL.
"To me, it doesn't matter," Jones said. "I can't speak for everybody. But it's just like we say you can't fall in love with a guy in shorts. You can't fall in love with a guy at the Combine just because his measurables are through the roof. You can't fall out of love with a guy also.
"At the end of the day, you've got to put the tape on and the numbers either validate what you see on tape or you overcome what the measurable show you on tape."
Jones lists Frederick as the 45th-best prospect in his mock draft and has him being taken in the second round. Schrager puts Frederick at No. 81 in the third round, while WalterFootball.com lists Frederick at No. 83.
Jones is high on Frederick because of his ability to play multiple positions on the offensive line, similar to former Badgers lineman Peter Konz, who was drafted last year by Atlanta in the second round. Frederick started 18 games at center and 11 games at left guard while at Wisconsin.
Jones said he projected former Badgers left tackle Ricky Wagner as a player who could be taken between rounds 5-7. But Schrager projects Wagner as a third-round pick at No. 94 to Baltimore. The only other Badgers player with a shot to be drafted appears to be safety Shelton Johnson. Schrager has him going in the sixth round at No. 184 to St. Louis.
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