You could say, with absolute, metaphysical certitude, that Saturday's game against Wisconsin is the most important for Indiana football in at least two decades.
You could say that, and most observers wouldn't disagree. Try telling that to Indiana coach Kevin Wilson, however, and he'll stare back like you have three eyes. At least, that's the message he's trying to sell this week.
"This isn't a big game," Wilson said. "If it was, we wouldn't be 4-5. We wouldn't be playing at 12 o'clock (Eastern time)."
Talk about the ultimate downplay.
Provided with some perspective, it would be hard to side with Wilson because Indiana has been so terrible for so long.
When Indiana (4-5, 2-3 in the Big Ten) plays host to Wisconsin (6-3, 3-2) at 11 a.m. CT Saturday in Bloomington, Ind., a possible Big Ten championship berth will actually be at stake thanks to a bizarre set of circumstances this season. Although both teams are battling for third place in the Leaders Division, first-place Ohio State (6-0) and second-place Penn State (4-1) are ineligible for postseason play because of NCAA sanctions.
That means if Indiana wins Saturday, it will hold the tiebreaker against Wisconsin with two regular-season games remaining -- and the Badgers still must play Ohio State and Penn State. Lose, and Wisconsin earns the keys to Indianapolis for the conference championship no matter what.
"It's weird," Badgers running back Montee Ball admitted. "I'm not going to sit here and say it's not based on the records and stuff, but Indiana is most definitely doing some great things this year. We've got to make sure we go in there with our minds right."
How unusual is it to see Indiana in the hunt for a Big Ten title? Consider that the Hoosiers haven't won the conference crown since 1967, when they last played in the Rose Bowl. Indiana's last bowl victory came in the 1991 Copper Bowl. The Hoosiers have played in just two bowl games since, losing to Virginia Tech in the 1993 Independence Bowl and Oklahoma State in the 2007 Insight Bowl.
Yes, history -- recent or otherwise -- has not been kind to the Hoosiers. From 2008 to 2011, for example, Indiana finished 3-29 in Big Ten play (.094 winning percentage). Perhaps that's what makes Saturday's outcome so intriguing. With a victory, the Hoosiers can match their conference win total from the past four seasons combined.
It's no wonder, then, that Wilson, in his second year in charge, is attempting to play it cool this week, spending more time lamenting his team's games rarely being replayed on the Big Ten Network than hyping Saturday's contest.
"We always play in bad TV slots," he said, "and we don't get much coverage."
The truth to Wilson's statement is debatable -- Indiana has played in the earliest time slot three times in nine games this season, the same number as Wisconsin. But if he is right, then people are missing out on quite a show.
The Hoosiers have benefited greatly from Wilson's up-tempo offense, which puts a premium on running as many plays as possible. Indiana averages 33.1 points per game and ranks second in the Big Ten in total offense (446.7 yards). IU also possesses the best passing attack in the conference at 299.9 yards per game.
Indiana quarterback Cameron Coffman, a junior college transfer, took over as the team's starter for Tre Roberson when Roberson sustained a broken left leg in the second game of the season. Coffman has thrown for 1,699 yards with 10 touchdowns and four interceptions to help resurrect the program. Freshman quarterback Nate Sudfeld has also played in six games, throwing seven touchdowns to just one interception.
Last week, Coffman connected with receiver Cody Latimer for a go-ahead 30-yard touchdown pass against Iowa in the fourth quarter to help Indiana win consecutive Big Ten games for the first time since 2007. Latimer was named the Big Ten's co-offensive player of the week after catching seven passes against the Hawkeyes for 113 yards and three touchdowns.
"I think the part that really jumps out to me is when Indiana's offense is playing in rhythm (is that) the quarterbacks and receivers seem to know where they need to be at the exact same time," Badgers coach Bret Bielema said. "Obviously, the QB has to throw the ball, but a lot of that relies on the receivers. Cody seems to be very locked in to his relationship with either quarterback, where he needs to be and how to play within the defense."
Bielema announced Thursday night that redshirt senior Curt Phillips would start at quarterback over redshirt junior Danny O'Brien against Indiana. Phillips, who has endured three ACL tears in his right knee, hasn't thrown a pass in a game for the Badgers since 2009 and has appeared briefly in two games this season.
O'Brien started the first three games of the year before being benched for redshirt freshman Joel Stave, who broke his left collarbone against Michigan State on Oct. 27, which created another opening at quarterback for the Badgers.
Bielema indicated he hoped his players would rally around Phillips in his first career start.
"Any time you sign with a school when you're a quarterback, your dream is to be a starting quarterback," Bielema said. "He unfortunately has battled through a lot. But the key point there is he's put himself back on top and I'm really looking forward for him to play."
Much like Wilson, Bielema isn't making a fuss about all that rides on Saturday's game. Bielema did praise Indiana for turning around its season, although he offered what appeared to be a backhanded compliment as well.
"They're playing at an extreme high," Bielema said. "They're a 4-5 football team that has a chance to win a championship, talking Rose Bowl and all that jazz."
Strange as those sentences may sound, they're somehow true.
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