College football season is quickly approaching, and when it does, fans can expect to see their share of nonconference blowouts involving BCS teams against overmatched opponents during the first month of games.
In that regard, the Big Ten is no different from all power-six conference teams looking to score a couple easy victories before the grind of conference play begins. Some Big Ten teams, however, have put together especially putrid early-season slates.
So, which Big Ten teams play the worst nonconference schedules in 2013? FOXSportsWisconsin.com ranks them 1-12 based on last season's Sagarin Ratings, a mathematical formula that rated all 246 FBS and FCS programs.
Here, No. 1 represents the most difficult nonconference schedule among Big Ten programs and No. 12 the easiest.
1. Purdue (6-7, 3-5 Big Ten last season)Aug. 31: at Cincinnati (10-3 last season); Sagarin Rating 36Sept. 7: vs. Indiana State (7-4); Sagarin Rating 95Sept. 14: vs. Notre Dame (12-1); Sagarin Rating 5Sept. 28: vs. Northern Illinois (12-2); Sagarin Rating 39Records last season: (41-10); Average Sagarin Rating: 44
Analysis: Purdue plays without question the most difficult nonconference schedule in the Big Ten. When the Boilermakers put together their schedule, they probably didn't think Notre Dame and Northern Illinois would be coming off BCS bowl game appearances. It's likely neither team will be quite as good in 2013, but both are better than the majority of nonconference opponents other Big Ten teams have lined up.
Prediction: Purdue finishes nonconference play 2-2.
2. Penn State (8-4, 6-2 Big Ten)Aug. 31: at Syracuse (8-5); Sagarin Rating 38Sept. 7: vs. Eastern Michigan (2-10); Sagarin Rating 146Sept. 14: vs. Central Florida (10-4); Sagarin Rating 45Sept. 21: vs. Kent State (11-3); Sagarin Rating 60Records last season: 31-22; Average Sagarin Rating: 72
Analysis: Penn State won't be bowl eligible for the next three seasons because of NCAA sanctions, but that won't stop the Nittany Lions from playing one of the toughest nonconference schedules in the Big Ten. Central Florida won the Beef O'Brady's Bowl, while Syracuse won the Pinstripe Bowl. Kent State lost the GoDaddy.com Bowl, but it was the Golden Flashes' first bowl game since 1972. Penn State certainly will be tested early in Year 2 of the Bill O'Brien era.
Prediction: Penn State finishes nonconference play 3-1.
3. Indiana (4-8, 2-6 Big Ten)Aug. 29: vs. Indiana State (7-4); Sagarin Rating 95Sept. 7: vs. Navy (8-5); Sagarin Rating 82Sept. 14: vs. Bowling Green (8-5); Sagarin Rating 74Sept. 21: vs. Missouri (5-7); Sagarin Rating 40Records last season: (28-21): Average Sagarin Rating: 73
Analysis: Kevin Wilson and Indiana are diving right in by playing a difficult nonconference schedule. Indiana has replaced Ball State and UMass in 2012 with Bowling Green and Missouri in 2013, and that is a considerable step up overall. Navy and Bowling Green each played in bowl games last season, and Missouri now plays in the toughest conference in the country. The Hoosiers are one of two Big Ten teams, along with Purdue, to play four nonconference teams rated in the top 100 of the Sagarin Ratings last season.
Prediction: Indiana finishes nonconference play 2-2.
4. Michigan State (7-6, 3-5 Big Ten)Aug. 30: vs. Western Michigan (4-8); Sagarin Rating 116Sept. 7: vs. South Florida (3-9); Sagarin Rating 86Sept. 14: vs. Youngstown State (7-4); Sagarin Rating 97Sept. 21: at Notre Dame (12-1); Sagarin Rating 5Records last season: (26-22); Average Sagarin Rating: 76
Analysis: Michigan State put together a disappointing 2012 campaign, but everything is lined up for the Spartans to bounce back in 2013. The toughest game on the entire schedule is playing against Notre Dame in South Bend, but the other three nonconference contests are at home. Michigan State also avoids playing Ohio State and Wisconsin from the Leaders Division, and the Spartans could be looking at a 7-1 record entering a Nov. 2 game against Michigan.
Prediction: Michigan State finishes nonconference play 3-1.
5. Illinois (2-10, 0-8 Big Ten)Aug. 31: vs. Southern Illinois (6-5); Sagarin Rating 102Sept. 7: vs. Cincinnati (10-3); Sagarin Rating 36Sept. 14 vs. Washington (7-6); Sagarin Rating 52Sept. 28: vs. Miami (Ohio) (4-8); Sagarin Rating 125Records last season: 27-22; Average Sagarin Rating: 79
Analysis: Tim Beckman didn't have nearly the same success in his first season at Illinois as he did in any of his three seasons in charge of Toledo. One would expect the Illini to equal their win total from a season ago during nonconference play because three of the four games are at home. The only non-home game is a neutral site affair against Washington at Soldier Field in Chicago. Illinios begins Big Ten play with Nebraska, Wisconsin, Michigan State and Penn State, so the Illini could use a couple of victories in late August and September.
Prediction: Illinois finishes nonconference play 2-2.
6. Iowa (4-8, 2-6 Big Ten)Aug. 31: vs. Northern Illinois (12-2); Sagarin Rating 39Sept. 7: vs. Missouri State (3-8); Sagarin Rating 143Sept. 14: at Iowa State (6-7); Sagarin Rating 55Sept. 21: vs. Western Michigan (4-8); Sagarin Rating 116Records last season: (25-25); Average Sagarin Rating: 88
Analysis: Sometimes, nonconference results aren't indicative of what a season will look like. Iowa handed Northern Illinois its only regular season defeat in the 2012 season opener, and then the Hawkeyes lost eight of their next 11 games. Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz has had just two losing seasons since 2001, but the Hawkeyes seem to have a favorable nonconference schedule to get things started on the right foot. A road game at Iowa State appears to be the toughest matchup.
Prediction: Iowa finishes nonconference play 3-1.
7. Michigan (8-5, 6-2 Big Ten)Aug. 31: vs. Central Michigan (7-6); Sagarin Rating 111Sept. 7: vs. Notre Dame (12-1); Sagarin Rating 5Sept. 14: vs. Akron (1-11); Sagarin Rating 169Sept. 21: at Connecticut (5-7); Sagarin Rating 89Records last season: (25-25); Average Sagarin Rating: 94
Analysis: Michigan is one of just two Big Ten teams to not play an FCS opponent in 2013. Although given the poor play of Akron, you could argue scheduling a top-level FCS team would actually enhance the Wolverines' strength of schedule. Michigan's lone road game comes at Connecticut, and the Huskies are no stranger to bringing in tough teams to Rentschler Field. UConn is 2-3 the last five seasons at home against BCS teams outside the Big East, beating Vanderbilt in 2010 and Virginia in 2008.
Prediction: Michigan finishes nonconference play 4-0.
T8. Nebraska (10-4, 7-1 Big Ten)Aug. 31: vs. Wyoming (4-8); Sagarin Rating 121Sept. 7: vs. Southern Miss (0-12); Sagarin Rating 167Sept. 14: vs. UCLA (9-5); Sagarin Rating 31Sept. 21: vs. South Dakota State (9-4); Sagaring Rating 79Records last season: (22-29); Average Sagarin Rating: 100
Analysis: Nebraska was able to secure four nonconference home games in 2013, which is a true rarity in college football these days. Indiana was the only other Big Ten team to do so this year. The Cornhuskers' toughest game during that stretch should be against UCLA, which reached the Pac-12 title game last season and played in the Holiday Bowl. If Nebraska can win that game, the Cornhuskers could be looking at a 7-0 start before their Nov. 2 game against Northwestern.
Prediction: Nebraska finishes nonconference play 4-0.
T8. Northwestern (10-3, 5-3 Big Ten)Aug. 31: at California (3-9); Sagarin Rating 78Sept. 7: vs. Syracuse (8-5); Sagarin Rating 38Sept. 14: vs. Western Michigan (4-8); Sagarin Rating 116Sept. 21: vs. Maine (5-6); Sagarin Rating 166Records last season: (20-28); Average Sagarin Rating: 100
Analysis: Northwestern had a more difficult nonconference schedule last year when it played three schools from BCS conferences and beat all of them. Playing at Cal to open the 2013 season won't be easy, and Syracuse won the Pinstripe Bowl last season, so the Wildcats will have their mettle tested early. Given how difficult Northwestern's Big Ten schedule is this season -- it includes Ohio State, Wisconsin, Nebraska, Michigan and Michigan State -- the Wildcats need a hot start.
Prediction: Northwestern finishes nonconference play 3-1
10. Wisconsin (8-6, 4-4 Big Ten)Aug. 31: vs. UMass (1-11); Sagarin Rating 178Sept. 7: vs. Tennessee Tech (3-8), Sagarin Rating 180Sept. 14: at Arizona State (8-5), Sagarin Rating 28Nov. 9: vs. BYU (8-5), Sagarin Rating 26Records last season: 20-29. Average Sagarin Rating: 104
Analysis: Wisconsin has taken heat in recent years for scheduling some of the weakest nonconference opponents in the country. The first two weeks of the season will see that streak continue, but the Badgers are at least trying to break that trend. Wisconsin could very well lose at Arizona State, and playing a solid BYU team at home will provide a good test between Big Ten games in November.
Prediction: Wisconsin finishes nonconference play 3-1
11. Ohio State (12-0, 8-0 Big Ten)Aug. 31: vs. Buffalo (4-8); Sagarin Rating 131Sept. 7: vs. San Diego State (9-4); Sagarin Rating 66Sept. 14: at California (3-9); Sagarin Rating 78Sept. 21: vs. Florida A&M (4-7); Sagarin Rating 210Record last season: (20-28); Average Sagarin Rating: 121
Analysis: Urban Meyer hasn't lost a game yet at Ohio State, and it would be shocking if the Buckeyes do so before Big Ten play begins. The Buckeyes' toughest game will be against San Diego State, which won its first conference championship since 1998 last year and played in its third straight bowl game -- a first in program history.
Prediction: Ohio State finishes nonconference play 4-0.
12. Minnesota (6-7, 2-6 Big Ten)Aug. 29: vs. UNLV (2-11); Sagarin Rating 157Sept. 7: at New Mexico State (1-11); Sagarin Rating 174Sept. 14: vs. Western Illinois (3-8); Sagarin Rating 191Sept. 21: vs. San Jose State (11-2); Sagarin Rating 29Records last season: (17-32); Average Sagarin Rating: 138
Analysis: Minnesota would find itself in the running for worst nonconference schedule in the country -- and still might -- if not for a game against San Jose State. The Spartans produced one of their best seasons in program history last season, finishing 11-2, winning the Military Bowl and cracking the national rankings for the first time since 1975. Somehow, the Gophers' only road game is against lowly New Mexico State. Minnesota will need every win it can muster to reach another bowl game.
Prediction: Minnesota finishes nonconference play 3-1.
