Overheard recently in the Hey Bill part of my ever-exciting life:
Hey, Bill, I saw on the injury wire that Cincinnati catcher Devon Mesaroco was hit on the mask by a foul ball and suffered a mild concussion. I don't remember catchers suffering concussions from foul balls ten, 20, 30, or more years ago, but it seems to happen pretty frequently nowadays. Is this a matter of better diagnosis, or is it a function of more pitchers throwing harder, resulting in higher-speed impacts on fouls, or is it something else I'm not seeing?
Asked by: JackAnswered: 3/11/2015
It is 100% a matter of concussions being diagnosed now that would have been ignored in the past – not 30 years ago, but 3 years ago.
Bill’s slightly prone to hyperbole, so I suspect he wouldn’t bet his house on that figure but ... I’ve still gotta say that 100% seems a touch high to me.
Yes, his basic point is absolutely true: It seems manifestly true that catchers in the old days – which is to say, before 2010 – must have suffered roughly as many concussions as they’re suffering now. It’s just that ... well, nobody really gave a damn. You were just supposed to shake it off and get the hell back down into your crouch and call a damn pitch. For better or (mostly) worse.
Anyway, I did check in with an expert, Dr. Alan Nathan...
Hi, Rob. A good question but not exactly in my wheelhouse. Foul tips are usually moving just a little bit slower than the pitch as it crosses the plate. So, as you suggest, if the pitch is faster, then the ball will be moving faster when it hits the mask. So the force on the head will be larger, by an amount that is calculable (if the speed of the ball is known). What is not known by me (and perhaps not really by anyone) is the relationship between magnitude of force and probability of concussion. But your idea that faster pitch speed, on average, in the past few years might be the cause of more concussions on foul tips has some merit. Or it might be that we are just paying closer attention to the whole issue of concussions. I don't know.
We’re definitely paying closer attention. I still think that with pitchers throwing so much harder than they used to, from the first inning through the ninth, the risk is higher than it’s ever been. I also wonder if there are more foul tips than ever; doesn’t it stand to reason that more swings and misses would also suggest more swings and almost misses? Which become foul tips, with the ball just barely changing direction?
So I don’t think it’s 100% diagnosis, 0% baseball. I will guess it’s more like 85/15 or 90/10. But this is all highly theoretical, and perhaps even utterly academic. Since I’m not sure that knowing what’s changed can help lower the current risk. Which is obviously considerable and worrisome.
