Analysis: 10 ways to view the Braves after trading Craig Kimbrel
ATLANTA -- It's been a crazy 24 hours, trying to make sense of the Braves' stunning trade from Sunday, shipping Craig Kimbrel and Melvin Upton Jr. to the Padres for Cameron Maybin, Carlos Quentin (designated for assignment), two prospects (pitcher Matt Wisler, outfielder Jordan Paroubeck) and the 41st pick in this year's MLB draft.
Here are 10 detailed thoughts on a swap that was equal parts incomprehensible and forward-thinking:
1. For the record, I'm for the Braves (now led by president of baseball operations John Hart) going all-in on their overhaul, converting a number of veteran assets (Jason Heyward, Justin Upton, Evan Gattis, David Carpenter, Chasen Shreve, Melvin Upton Jr. and now Kimbrel) into a large cluster of promising prospects and potentially dynamic draft picks.
But man, do I loathe the process on two fronts:
a) Yes, the Braves landed promising pitchers like Shelby Miller and Tyrell Jenkins in the Heyward deal -- the club's first big trade of the offseason.
But what was the rush in consummating something before the Winter Meetings -- a time when general managers typically conceive their best offers for talent, given the time constraints and highly competitive nature of open-market bidding.
b) And yes, the Braves have garnered praise (from other GMs) for Sunday's swap with the Padres, in terms of getting San Diego to pick up Melvin Upton Jr.'s contract. But did they truly maximize the return value of Craig Kimbrel -- baseball's premier closer of the last four years ... and probably the next four years?
Would it have been so bad to wait until mid-July or just hours before the trade deadline -- a time when contending, but somehow-desperate clubs break character and pay just about any price for a championship (even one-year rentals)?
Take the trade from Sunday. It's great that Atlanta secured one of San Diego's top four prospects (Wisler); but this only became a possibility after the Padres signed pitcher James Shields ... and no longer felt compelled to pay the princely sum of Wisler, Hunter Renfroe (the Padres' No. 1 prospect) and/or catcher Austin Hedges (No. 2 prospect) for Phillies ace Cole Hamels.
Perhaps the Braves would have successfully lifted Wisler and then Renfroe or Hedges immediately before the trade deadline -- when the championship pressure amps up?
Bottom line: There are only two high-leverage situations on the baseball calendar -- during the Winter Meetings and the trade deadline. And the Braves, for whatever reason, didn't feel inclined to sell Heyward and Kimbrel to the highest bidder. At those prescribed times.
2. Yes, the Braves were obviously happy to unload Upton's contract (three years, roughly $46 million). But I'm not buying how that five-year pact (signed before the 2013 campaign) was an albatross for team officials, regarding the pursuit of certain veteran free agents.
After all, the Braves have a modest payroll (roughly $90 million -- or one-third of the Dodgers' Opening Day tab of $270 million), a high valuation (Forbes recently slotted a large chunk of MLB franchises above $1 billion) and will move into a state-of- the-art stadium in just two short years.
3. Kimbrel (185 saves, 1.51 ERA from 2011-14) has easily been the best closer in baseball over the last four seasons. As such, it would be a monumental task for the Braves' next closer -- either Jason Grilli, Jim Johnson or a 'committee' approach for ending games -- to replicate Kimbrel's numbers in the short term.
And yet, there exists a large cluster of baseball fans and pundits who like to minimize the impact of a closer -- even dominant ones -- by leaning on two valid, but flawed arguments:
a) If the Braves aren't championship contenders in 2015, Kimbrel would ostensibly have fewer chances to impact games.
b) Even with a three-year track record that includes a 1.27 ERA and annual averages of 103 strikeouts and 46 saves, Kimbrel's cumulative WAR tally (Wins Above Replacement) still stood at only 9.1 -- or 3.3 extra victories per year.
What makes this rationale flawed? At age 26, Kimbrel is a superstar and a true difference-maker with any team in baseball.
As such, it's disheartening to see a high-end, standalone-trade asset, like Kimbrel, dangled as a carrot ... to eliminate a cumbersome contract that could have been tolerated until late July.
4. This is where athletes deserve major props: Hypothetically speaking, say you had been transferred from Atlanta to San Diego in your regular job -- the day before a major presentation at the Georgia office.
And say the California office of that same large company -- involving the same project -- expected you to be a heavy contributor to their end of the presentation on Monday night, leaving just 24-30 hours to uproot your life, settle into new surroundings roughly 2,140 miles away ... and oh yeah, nail your component of the presentation.
Which brings us to this ...
5. It's fair to wonder the following: Will Grilli (Monday save vs. the Marlins) get the "Kimbrel" treatment of loud music, scorching flames on the wraparound electronic scoreboard and hyped expectations of greatness when taking the mound in the 9th inning -- presumably holding a lead?
That's a fine line to walk, in terms of supporting the new player (especially one who netted 33 saves with the Pirates just two years ago) ... and still honoring Kimbrel's legacy of superbly anchoring the bullpen for many years.
6. The proverbial "eye test" with Cameron Maybin reveals two basic truths:
a) He doesn't represent an upgrade over Melvin Upton Jr. in homers, RBI or on-base percentage. But when healthy, the 28-year-old Maybin (66 total steals for 2011-12) has the capacity for 30-plus steals.
b) No Braves defender can possibly match Maybin's speed, quickness and agility in the outfield. In other words, if he's in the starting lineup ... Maybin should be in center field.
Of course, Atlanta officials have already put a pin in that suggestion, identifying Eric Young Jr. -- who had a productive spring on defense -- as the every-day center fielder.
But major-league parks are more expansive than anything from the Grapefruit League ... meaning the Braves have plenty of time to reverse that decision, when applicable.
Speaking of Maybin ... he only logged 109 games in the previous two seasons with the Padres, but let's credit him for the incremental (read: baby-steps) progress with whiffs:
For the 2011-12 campaigns, the outfielder struck out 23 percent of the time. (Too high for a non-power option.)
But for 2013-14, Maybin's whiff rate was just 22 percent.
7. I love the notion of clubs being allowed to trade "competitive balance" picks. If it helps orchestrate more deals in the future, I'm all for it.
And if this so-called experiment goes well ... the day will come when top-10 draft seletions are available to the highest bidder.
That would represent another high-leverage situation, if applicable.
8. Feel free to ignore Matt Wisler's rough ERA (5.01) against Triple-A hitters last season (22 starts). With blue-chip prospects, strikeout-to-walk rate stands as the only category that truly means everything.
During these minor-league outings, with pitchers seldom going past the 7th inning, they're experimenting with different pitches, changing speeds and avoiding too many curveballs early in a season.
And Wisler succeeded in that realm, posting a 101/36 K-BB rate for Triple-A El Paso in 2014.
9. Give the Braves credit for working the system to corral five of the first 75 picks in this year's MLB draft (slots 14, 28, 41, 54, 75). It's a golden opportunity to restock the minor-league shelves with another wave of high-end prospects.
But let's have some perspective here: Just four years ago, the Rays franchise -- which enjoys a superb reputation of drafting and developing top-notch talent -- owned 12 of the first 89 picks in the 2011 draft.
And at the time of this writing, not a member of the opening 12 have logged a single inning in the major leagues; and citing MLB.com's rankings, only three rate in the club's top-15 listing of incoming talent (Taylor Guerrieri at 8, Blake Snell at 12 and Mike Mahtook at 14).
10. Speaking of the future, it's fun to daydream about the Braves' seven-deep rotation for the 2017 season (the first in SunTrust Park):
Julio Teheran (possible Cy Young candidate by then), Alex Wood, Shelby Miller, Mike Foltynewicz (future frontline ace), Lucas Sims, Max Fried, Matt Wisler.
That doesn't even account for the possibility of southpaw Mike Minor (currently battling a shoulder malady) sticking with the club through the arbitration years, or high-upside arms like Tyrell Jenkins, Manny Banuelos and Jason Hursh taking sizable leaps in the coming years.
And that's a wonderful problem to have. You can never possess enough power arms.
