As I’ve written a few times lately, I’m writing about things Joe Sheehan wrote about in his newsletter last week. I’ve been focusing on specific teams, generally. But with the approach of a whole new year, I’d like to knock out a whole division at once; specifically, the American League Central, which is largely the division of my youth and thus still somewhere near my heart ...
We’ll go through them in reverse order of last season’s standings, which of course means beginning with the Twins, who have averaged 96 losses per season since going 94-68 in 2010. Suffice to say, Joe’s not a huge fan of the Twins’ offseason ministrations:
... the Santana signing is another example of a team just not understanding the fundamental truth: the middle class of free agency is death. Ricky Nolasco and Ervin Santana will make $25.5 million in 2015. Jon Lester's AAV is $25.8 million. Max Scherzer will probably make about 10% more. You are almost always better funneling free-agent dollars into the very best players rather than doling it out to the middle class. What the Twins did with Philip Hughes, buying low -- three years, $24 million -- that's the proper use of free agency. Josh Willingham and Torii Hunter and Ricky Nolasco and Ervin Santana? Just money being burned.
The Twins have been run by more or less the same people for a quarter-century. It may be time to give someone else a turn.
Things were supposed to start getting a lot better when Terry Ryan returned to the GM’s office. That was three years ago, and last place still seems like a pretty decent bet for next season. But at least the fans will have Torii Hunter.
Of the White Sox, Joe writes, “The White Sox have improved themselves more than any team this offseason. Working with a still-thin farm system, they've spent money in some areas while making what looks like the steal of the winter in the trade market.”
Joe wrote that bit before the Padres went nuts, but I doubt if he would change that. I think the most interesting thing Joe wrote about the White Sox was this, though: “The White Sox control one very important part of their destiny, and if they're serious about being the best story of 2015, they have to be aggressive with it. Carlos Rodon, right now, is a major-league starting pitcher.”
I’m not so sure. Rodon, the third pick in last June’s draft, has pitched only 25 professional innings. But that’s not what concerns me. What concerns me is that Rodon walked 13 batters in those 25 innings. Management’s talked about breaking Rodon into the majors as a reliever, as they did with Chris Sale. Which has worked out pretty well. Granted, Rodon might be good enough to start already ... but if he’s just a decent No. 4/5 sort of starter, one can hardly argue the club’s success hinges upon his short-term role.
I agree with Joe about the Indians, whose formula for success seems pretty simple:
The Indians are stuck paying the price for a February 2013 shopping spree that produced a single postseason game, as well as last year's ill-fated David Murphy signing. They're paying a third of a limited payroll to three outfielders in decline. The law firm of Murphy, Swisher and Bourn has to bounce back, because the Indians can't paper over $30 million in mistakes.
Brandon Moss should help, and the Indians have enough pitching to balance Corey Kluber’s likely (if modest) regression. But those guys making all the money probably do need to play better than they have been.
Which brings us to, uh, the Royals. It’s not, uh, been a good winter for them. They’ve lost Billy Butler and Nori Aoki to free agency. Granted, neither Butler nor Aoki were particularly good last season, combining for about 2 Wins Above Replacement, give or take. Those two have been replaced, at some real cost, by Kendrys Morales and Alex Rios ... whose projections have them combining for about 2 Wins Above Replacement.
Joe:
I do think it's interesting ... that they have approached their offseason with such a lack of urgency. Again: they didn't win a division or win 90 games, they outscored their opponents by 25 runs, and a huge part of their success stems from the kind of late-inning relief that is incredibly hard to replicate in consecutive seasons -- much less for three in a row.
They’ve also lost their best starting pitcher to free agency, and as much as we might like Brandon Finnegan and/or Kris Medlen, it’s unlikely that either will pitch as well as James Shields did. The Royals should have been aggressive this winter, whether by spending real money on an outstanding player or trading one or more of their best relief pitchers. But they weren’t, and so they’ve probably been passed by the White Sox and/or the Indians.
Has anyone passed the Tigers, though? Those winners of four straight division titles? That’s hard to say. The Tigers weren’t actually great last season, outscoring their opponents by only 52 runs. The good news is that Jose Iglesias is slated to resume his reign at shortstop, and Yoenis Cespedes will inject some needed punch in the outfield. The bad news is that Max Scherzer and Rick Porcello have been replaced in the rotation by Shane Greene and Alfredo Simon; granted, they will have David Price for a whole season.
Joe’s big finish:
Without Scherzer, the Tigers are a team with a high risk of collapse. It's coming, it's just a question of whether they can make one more run. The Royals have stood in place, and the White Sox started from pretty far back, so the Tigers may still be the division favorites, but just by a hair. They need Scherzer to keep their grip on the AL Central.
I think this might be true, especially if you give the Indians a shot, too. I won’t be surprised if the Tigers win again, even without Scherzer. But it sure doesn’t figure to be easy. This probably won’t be a good division. Highly competitive, though.
