All-Purpose Playbook: Week 11 NFL underdog picks, futures, DraftKings & more

Published Nov. 13, 2014 4:30 p.m. ET

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Brett Smiley

Welcome to the All-Purpose Playbook, a Buzzer column that is (1) either a guide to many things NFL and wagering, such as underdogs and totals and daily fantasy football or (2) a road map to hell. Check back here on Thursdays for more football picks, a smattering of GIFs and occasional nonsense.

Follow me @brettsmiley on Twitter, and you can e-mail me with any questions or comments at basmiley [at] gmail [dot] com.

UNDERDOG PICKS OF THE WEEK

Another week, another underdog pick loss. It may be time to (temporarily I hope) rename this section "Fade Smiley Pick of the Week" as the record drops to 7-9 on the season during this 3-week slide.

St. Louis +7 at Arizona last week looked good most of the way as the visiting Rams led 14-10 halfway into the fourth quarter. Then in relief of Carson Palmer, Drew Stanton threw a 47-yard bomb to John Brown, who made an incredible grab for a go-ahead touchdown.

Not what I wanted to see, but we still had a one-way ticket to Cover City. But then Patrick Peterson took an interception 30 yards to the house on the Rams' ensuing drive. The bus to Cover City broke down, but there was still hope for a double-secret backdoor cover. And then Antonio Cromartie added insult to grief with a 14-yard return for a touchdown on an Austin Davis fumble.  

Just brutal, but that's why it's called gambling and entertainment, not a risk-free CD account. Time to get off the schneid.  

Minnesota Vikings +3 at Chicago Bears

The Chicago Bears have given up more than 50 points in back-to-back games.

Trivia question: name the last team to accomplish this ignominious feat.

Think about it for a second.

It was the ROCHESTER JEFFERSONS... during the Roaring Twenties. The year 1923 to be exact. The Rochester Jeffersons were a Rochester, N.Y. team that played in the NFL from 1920 to 1925. In 1923, the Jeffersons got crushed by Chicago Cardinals 60-0, then the next week, took a 56-0 beating by the Rock Island Independents.

Granted the Jeffersons didn't face the likes of Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers on the road in subsequent weeks, but there's a place in the history books etched for the Bears nonetheless.

Anyhow, that's how magnificently incompetent this Bears team has become. Now I suppose that the professionals will say, well, this is a good spot now to take the Bears; "buy low" on the Bears while everyone is down on them and they're returning home. But I just think these Bears are a special brand of terrible and uninspired.

A couple quotes to consider, first from Bears legend Mike Ditka.

If you have any talent at all on the defensive side of the ball, you don't put on an exhibition like you did in the first half against Green Bay. You don't do that. Now, if you have no pride at all, then maybe that can happen.

I don't see a lot of leadership; I don't see a lot of pride in what's going on. I see a lot of guys going through the motions.

I like how Ditka uses the phrase "put on an exhibition," which in my mind evokes images not of a football game, but more like a circus.

The Bears are a cornucopia of incompetence and misery for the players and fans alike. The wheels are off. The NFC North will go to the Packers or Lions. The players will still get paid, and some of them will play for their next contract.

One more quote. Here's Chicago wideout Brandon Marshall: "When you lose your confidence, it's over," he said. "You don't have a chance. And right now, that's where we are at."  

So you get the idea. I might take a team comprised of sea turtles to beat the Bears this week but we've got something even more promising -- the Minnesota Vikings, a team with issues of its own but importantly a vastly improved defense, and they're playing hard for highly respected first-year head coach Mike Zimmer. The Bears offense will have to contend with young and hungry defenders like defensive tackle Sharrif Floyd, who's improved under Zimmer and stud rookie linebacker Anthony Barr. Throw in defensive end Everson Griffin, who's tallied nine sacks and the Vikes rank third in the league with 30 total sacks.

The Vikings took two wins into its bye week and now come rested and hopefully prepared for this visit to Soldier Field. Rookie quarterback Teddy Bridgewater needs to protect the ball and let the Bears beat themselves.  

With much less fanfare, I'm also taking...

Oakland Raiders +10.5 at San Diego Chargers

Yeah, I saw parts of last week's 41-17 thrashing by the Broncos, but did you see the Chargers at the Dolphins the week before their bye? Remember, the turd-tacular 37-0 shutout defeat?

Of course no team is as good as its best win or as bad as its bad loss. Go back further to the Week 6 meeting between these teams when the Raiders had victory within their grasp with two minutes left in the game in four touchdown performance by Derek Carr, ultimately a 31-28 defeat, but a cover.

The Raiders (0-9) have played a truly brutal schedule (Cardinals, Browns, Seahawks, Broncos since the last Chargers game) but they're 3-1 against the spread on the road this year. Right now bettors have punched 71% of their tickets on the Chargers, but 10.5 points is just too many in this divisional game.

New England Patriots +3 at Indianapolis Colts

We're done doubting the Patriots, right? The line opened with the Patriots as 2.5 dogs, but it stands at +3 in Vegas right now.

This feels like a shootout and a field goal game either way. A couple nuggets from Mike Wilkening, who writes for the Linemakers at The Sporting News:

"The Pats are 44-21 against the number as underdogs in Bill Belichick's tenure (67.7 percent)."

"Strangely enough, though, the Patriots are 0-4-1 against the number off a regular-season bye in the last five seasons. However, they are 4-1 straight up in these games, with the lone defeat at Carolina a season ago -- a game in which the Patriots had a fourth-quarter lead."

The Colts defense has been exposed at times this season and just hasn't generated much of a pass rush -- actually third to last in that department, according to ProFootballFocus. Tom Brady can really exploit that. You won't like GRONK when GRONK is healthy.

BACK TO THE FUTURES: THE DIFFERENCE A WEEK MAKES

We had a lot of fun last week with the futures analysis, so let’s return to see what’s changed in just one week.

Anyhow, last week’s overtime loss to the 49ers sent the Saints from 18/1 to 30/1. Someone has to win this division and get a Wild Card weekend home game. You know who else had 30/1 odds? In mid-October, Kobe Bryant was 30/1 to win the NBA MVP at Bovada. Govern yourselves accordingly.

TOTAL PICKS OF THE WEEK

Washington vs. Tampa Bay: Over 45.5

Rotoworld’s Evan Silva (a must-follow on Twitter) drew my attention to this one early in the week.

I agree. I think Washington’s players genuinely have RGIII’s back now and they will come out of the bye week rested and hungry, looking to feed on a soft Buccaneers passing defense that ranks near the bottom of the league. Washington’s pass D stinks, too, so this is a match hopefully made in shootout heaven. If this game ends 28-17, someone please shoot me.

Chiefs vs. Seahawks: Under 42

Last week the Giants allowed 38 points to the Seahawks, 21 of those in the 4th quarter after New York opened the floodgates to hell. Russell Wilson was only 10/17 passing for 172 yards and two interceptions. The Chiefs will probably play contain this week unlike the Giants and make it a grind-it-out type of game. The Chiefs have no vertical passing game -- zero passing plays of 40+ yards this season (every other team has at least one). On the other side, the Chiefs have played the pass much better than the run, so expect a heavy dose of Beast Mode and a clock that moves.

DRAFTKINGS PICKS OF THE WEEK: LET’S GO CLEARANCE SHOPPING!

If you're reading this in the first place you probably know what daily fantasy leagues are all about, but if not: You draft a team within the bounds of a salary cap, join a contest, turn on RedZone channel and pray. It's a lot of fun. More information here.

Quarterback

Robert Griffin III ($6,300) vs. Tampa Bay: TB has the third worst passing defense in the league according to PFF. They allowing 277.1 YPG passing; combine that with Washington’s penchant for the longball -- a league best 14 passing plays of 40+ yards, and I think RGIII is going to have a nice statistical game. And if you lock in RG3, you can spend wildly on premier wideouts.

Running backs

Jeremy Hill ($4,500) at New Orleans: Starter Gio Bernard will be out once again, making Hill the BMOC in the Bengals' backfield. In case you missed the Bengals game last week on Thursday night, Andy Dalton’s passing rating was “Oh, f***.” I’ve got to figure that Cincy’s gameplan will call for a heavy dose of Hill.

Frank Gore ($4,500) at New York Giants: The Giants are in full-blown crisis mode after allowing 17,303 rushing yards to the Seahawks last week. I haven’t a clue which version of the Giants defense will show up Sunday but even the best version is a depleted bunch that isn'’t very good. Colin Kaepernick will probably drive them mad with his legs and that should create some opportunities for Gore.

Wide receivers

Pierre Garcon ($4,000) vs Tampa Bay: Refer to the section on RGIII. Garcon has seen a lot more targets with Griffin under center as opposed to Colt McCoy or Kirk Cousins. This could be a nice bounceback game for a guy who reeled in a whopping 113 catches last year.

Jordan Matthews ($4,500) at Green Bay: Maybe we'll be week late to the party but the Packers can light up the scoreboard like a pinball machine and the Eagles play fast, so Matthews could see a lot of action again.

Harry Douglas ($3,000) at Carolina: This is the bargain basement special. Remember what Matthews did to the Panthers nickel corners last week? Well, Douglas is in the slot for the Falcons, so let’s pray that Matt Ryan finds him early and often.  

Tight end

Travis Kelce ($4,000) vs. Seahawks: Seattle has been fairly friendly to opposing tight ends this year, allowing 43 catches, 370 yards and importantly, 10 touchdowns. Kelce has gotten a lot of looks in the red zone and if you’re not going to break the bank for Jimmy Graham and Gronk, that’s about as good as you can ask for.

Defense/Special teams

Minnesota Vikings ($3,000) at Chicago: The Vikes lead the league in sacks, which is the most reliable source of defense points. You can also count on at least one inexplicable Jay Cutler interception and maybe a strip sack, plus the possibility of a Cordarrelle Patterson return touchdown. We’re going to see this defense party like it’s 2005 on Lake Minnetonka.

SPECIAL THROWBACK: THE GREATEST COMEBACK THAT NEVER WAS

Kudos to Bleacher Report for revisiting my favorite video on the Internet. No, not “Goats Yelling Like Humans” (my other all-time favorite).

The video shows a playoffs game between Plano East and John Tyler high schools in Texas, a game with the most unbelievable closing act I’ve ever witnessed in a football game.

If you’ve never seen it, you’re in for a treat. If you’ve seen it 100 times like I have, you’re in for a treat, too, because B/R tracked down a number of the players and coaches involved, as well as the announcer who was so stunned by the turn of events that he exclaimed he wanted to throw up.

Enjoy, and good luck this week!

Follow me @brettsmiley on Twitter, and you can e-mail me with any questions or comments at basmiley [at] gmail [dot] com.

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