KANSAS CITY, Mo. — Two teams with drastically different offensive styles will be matching up in the American League Championship Series.
The Orioles, looking for their first pennant since 1983, are built on power, having led the major leagues with 211 home runs. Meanwhile, the Royals were dead last with just 95 homers.
The Royals, looking for their first pennant since 1985, are built on speed, having swiped an MLB-high 153 bags. The O's don't run; they were last in the majors with 44 stolen bases.
Nonetheless, both found a way to get this far based on strong starting pitching, good bullpens and solid defense.
But, as one AL scout summed up: "Just because the O's don't steal bases doesn't mean they can't. And just because the Royals haven't hit homers in the regular season doesn't mean they can't now. You might see the O's run a bit more, and you might see the Royals flex their muscles a little bit more. Should be fun."
As much power as the O's can generate, most of that muscle comes from two sources now — outfielder/designated hitter Nelson Cruz (40 homers) and center fielder Adam Jones (29). First baseman Chris Davis (26 homers) is serving a 25-game suspension (amphetamine use) that would end by Game 6. But do the Orioles burn a roster spot and wait for him, thus going with a 24-man roster until then? Do they keep him off the roster and then invent a phantom injury to squeeze him on the 25-man if there is a Game 6? Tough call. Journeyman Steve Pearce has done well filling in Davis' power void, popping a career-high 21 homers. Shortstop J.J. Hardy was tough on the Royals this year (.360/.385/.440). Right fielder Nick Markakis (.346 with a .433 OBP) also hit well against the Royals. For all their power, the O's were eighth in baseball in scoring (4.35), not that much ahead of the Royals, who at 4.02 were right around the league average.
The Royals have struggled in the power game and spent most of the season trying to manufacture runs with their speed. But they did hit four homers in the AL Division Series, and they have plenty of guys capable of the long ball, especially at Camden Yards, where they feel very comfortable. A few weeks ago, manager Ned Yost shook up the Royals lineup, cramming most of their speed at the top with shortstop Alcides Escobar, right fielder Nori Aoki and center fielder Lorenzo Cain hitting 1-2-3. It worked as Escobar had an .896 OPS after that, Aoki hit .429 and the team went 13-6. Gold Glove left fielder Alex Gordon (19 homers) supplied most of the power during the regular season, but first baseman Eric Hosmer and third baseman Mike Moustakas each belted two homers during the ALDS.
Still, one through nine, the Orioles would seem to have the easier time plating runs.
EDGE: Orioles
The O's don't have a lot of household names or flash in their rotation, but the top three have been solid. Royals hitters think Chris Tillman (13-6, 3.34 ERA) is one of the most underrated starters in the league. "He's very tough," Royals DH Billy Butler said. "Knows how to get hitters out." Wie-Yen Chen (16-6, 3.54) tends to dazzle with softer stuff, a lot like the Royals' Jason Vargas (11-10, 3.71 ERA). And Bud Norris (15-8, 3.65) was solid against a tough Tigers lineup in the ALDS, throwing 6 1/3 innings of shutout baseball.
The Royals will counter with Big Game James Shields (14-8, 3.21), who held off the Angels in the clinching ALDS win Sunday with six solid innings. Rookie sensation Yordano Ventura (14-10, 3.20) will bring his 100-mph heat into Game 2. Ventura was brilliant down the stretch with 11 straight quality starts during one stretch, and he muzzled the Angels with a seven-inning, one-run outing in the ALDS. Manager Ned Yost hasn't decided on his rotation after that and might wind up putting left-hander Danny Duffy and his 2.53 ERA in the 'pen in favor of veterans Vargas or Jeremy Guthrie.
EDGE: Royals
Zack Britton has been a solid closer for the O's with 37 saves and a 1.65 ERA, while lefty Andrew Miller has been sensational, posting a 1.35 ERA in 29 appearances. "He's almost like a Randy Johnson now against lefties," said one AL scout. O's relievers struck out 11 hitters, walked four and allowed three runs in 12 innings of work against the Tigers.
Meanwhile, there probably hasn't been a better back end of the bullpen in all of baseball than the Royals' trio of Greg Holland (46 saves, 1.44 ERA), Wade Davis (1.00) and Kelvin Herrera (1.41). All throw in the upper 90s, and they turn virtually every Royals game into a potential six-inning affair; the Royals were 65-4 with the lead after six innings and 72-1 with the lead after seven innings. If the Royals have the lead after six, it's basically checkmate.
EDGE: Royals
Delmon Young provides some power off the O's bench (seven homers, 30 RBI in the regular season), and former Royal David Lough can provide some late-inning speed (eight steals in the regular season), though the Orioles rarely turn to their bench.
The Royals likely will have Josh Willingham, who is just two years removed from a 35-homer season, on hand to pinch hit if needed. He still can pounce on a mistake. But the biggest bench threat is speedster Terrance Gore (two steals in ALDS), whom some scouts have called the fastest player in baseball. Jarrod Dyson (36 steals) is no slouch, either, and usually comes into center field (pushing Cain to right) for defense in the seventh.
EDGE: Even
It has been decades since either franchise won a pennant, so there is a hunger among both clubs and fan bases. The two teams met seven times during the regular season, with the Royals winning four, suggesting they are pretty evenly matched, given the contrasting offensive styles.
One might suggest the edge in managing goes to Buck Showalter of the O's over Yost — the Wall Street Journal recently compared the two managers with the notion that one was a "chess-master" and one was a "dunce." Let's be honest, no one considers Showalter a dunce. But the Royals almost seem like a team of destiny now, able to overcome any shortcomings from Yost as a tactician. And Yost deserves a ton of credit for keeping this team stable during some tough stretches during the season.
The Royals' highly unlikely comeback from a 7-3 deficit to Oakland in the Wild Card Game, and two dramatic extra-inning wins over the heavily favored Angels, suggest the mojo is perhaps on Kansas City's side. The Royals, who hadn't been to the postseason since 1985, have won four straight playoff games and simply are feeling it.
EDGE: Royals
You can follow Jeffrey Flanagan on Twitter at @jflanagankc or email him at jeffreyflanagan6@gmail.com.
