ACC-Big Ten Challenge: previews, predictions and more


With conference expansion brings changes to every tradition, even newer ones like the ACC-Big Ten Challenge. In this year's event, it goes from a two-day event to a three-day event that starts Monday and it expands to include 14 teams from each league.
The ACC hasn't won this event outright since the 2008-09 season, which was also the 10th straight season they'd won the event since its inception in 1999. The Big 10 then won three in a row from the 2009-10 season until 2011-12, but the last two editions have ended in ties.
Even while the ACC looks to recapture the magic that the league had as the most dominant in the land -- adding Louisville to the ranks certainly can't hurt, as Rick Pitino joins Mike Krzyzewski, Jim Boeheim, Tony Bennett and Roy Williams as some of the best coaches in the game -- many who follow the sport would argue that the Big Ten has become the better league.
The middle and bottom of the ACC have not been as strong as the Big 10's middle and bottom, that's for sure. Head-to-head results between leagues don't tend to matter as much in college basketball as they do in college football, largely because there's a bigger sample size.
The ACC is 11-3 against the Power 5 leagues, but 3-4 against the AAC/Big East and with some bad losses thrown into the mix, too (like two to the Big South and one to the MEAC). The Big Ten is 0-4 so far against the ACC and 9-3 against all other Power 5 leagues. Obviously, the league will pick up at least one win in the coming days against the ACC, and likely a few more than that.
As usual, this event will almost certainly come down to the toss-up games.
No. 24 Illinois (6-0) at No. 15 Miami (7-0) (Tuesday, 9 p.m.)
Miami has a win at a then-top-five Florida to its credit, but other than that, the Hurricanes have basically been crushing inferior opponents with relative ease. Transfer point guard Angel Rodriguez has been fantastic, as has transfer forward Sheldon McClellan. Illinois, meanwhile, had a pretty bland opening schedule until getting a really good win over Baylor last Friday in the Las Vegas Invitational. Both teams are shooting well over 43 percent from 3-point range.
No. 14 Ohio State (5-0) at No. 5 Louisville (5-0) (Tuesday, 9:30 p.m.)
A fantastic battle of offense versus defense looms here, as Ohio State has the No. 1 effective field goal percentage (eFG%) in the nation and Louisville has the No. 1 overall defense (No. 3 in eFG% defense). Ohio State is shooting a ridiculous 63.9 percent from inside the 3-point line and Louisville's opponents have shot just 36.9 percent from two. Louisville's offense has struggled at times, though, and it's going to need to knock down some shots. Still, it's at home and Montrezl Harrell will be the best player on the court for either team.
No. 7 Virginia (7-0) at No. 21 Maryland (7-0) (Wednesday, 9:15 p.m.)
This game would have been a bit more of a toss-up until Maryland lost guard Dez Wells for a few weeks with a broken wrist. Virginia picked up right where it left off last year and is running efficient offense combined with a crushing, lethal defense. Maryland is shooting the bell better than it ever has in the Mark Turgeon era and has good wins (Arizona State and Iowa State), but Virginia's defense continues to be one of the nation's best. Combine all that with a revenge factor for the Cavaliers (they ended the regular season with a loss at Maryland) and no Dez Wells, and yeah.
Iowa (5-2) at No. 12 North Carolina (5-1) (Wednesday, 7:30 p.m.)
North Carolina didn't look great against Butler in the first game of the Battle 4 Atlantis, but the Tar Heels bounced back nicely with convincing wins over two ranked teams in UCLA and Florida. They're far from a finished product, but they looked more like the team they're supposed to be in those final two games. Iowa, meanwhile, is an experienced bunch that will make life difficult for the Tar Heels on defense but often struggle to score themselves. Iowa is 0-2 against the Power 5 with losses to Texas and Syracuse.
Minnesota (4-2) at Wake Forest (4-3) (Tuesday, 7 p.m.)
An experienced team, playing at home, and one that has already played a tough schedule (losses to Louisville and St. John's) against a Wake Forest team in rebuilding mode under first-year head coach Danny Manning that already has home losses to Iona and Delaware State? Mark this one down as a heavy, heavy Big Ten lean.
Syracuse (5-1) at No. 17 Michigan (5-1) (Tuesday, 7:30 p.m.)
This would have been a fun game last year, and still might be. Both lost a lot of important pieces from last year's teams, but Michigan has a little bit more back. Syracuse has struggled on offense, particularly shooting, and the Wolverines are still an excellent shooting team (42 percent from 3-point range). Syracuse freshman Chris McCullough and senior big man Rakeem Christmas are having great seasons, but Caris LeVert & Co. will likely be too much to deal with for a young Syracuse team on the road in a hostile atmosphere that has trouble making shots.
No. 19 Michigan State (5-2) at Notre Dame (6-1) (Wednesday, 7:15 p.m.)
Michigan State hung with Duke for awhile and fell in a close one to Kansas, so the Spartans will be tough and scrappy as always. But they're certainly not unbeatable, especially since this is a road game. Still, Notre Dame's best win this year is over UMass and the rest of the wins on the schedule are against bad teams -- and the Irish defense has left plenty to be desired. Notre Dame is shooting the ball extremely well, but this will be the best defensive team it has faced by a wide margin.
Virginia Tech (4-2) at Penn State (6-1) (Wednesday, 7:15 p.m.)
Virginia Tech under Buzz Williams has shown some promise, but this rebuilding job is going to take time. The Hokies have arguably the worst loss for the ACC at home to Appalachian State, but when 3-pointers are falling for them, they've looked good. Penn State on the road will be a tough game for them, though, and way too much to ask for the young Hokies to get a win here.
Georgia Tech (5-1) at Northwestern (5-1) (Wednesday, 9:15 p.m.)
The Yellow Jackets have a pair of solid wins (Georgia and Rhode Island), but a bad loss to Marquette. Still, Brian Gregory's bunch has had some nice moments and it's not as if this game is unwinnable. But it's on the road, and Chris Collins' Northwestern team has shown the ability to make life difficult on its opponents defensively. Considering the Yellow Jackets aren't shooting it very well again, that just makes for a bad matchup.
Rutgers (3-3) at Clemson (4-2) (Monday, 7 p.m.)
Avert your eyes -- this is a matchup of two of the nation's worst shooting teams, particularly from distance (Clemson is shooting 29.5 percent, Rutgers is shooting 26.4 percent), and neither of these offenses are very good. Rutgers is coming off of a game where it held Virginia to 45 points and lost by double digits, because it put up just 26. Clemson owns two terrible losses (to Winthrop at home and Gardner-Webb), and the Tigers' defense isn't what it has been in the past. First one to 40 points wins?
Florida State (3-3) at Nebraska (4-1) (Monday, 7 p.m.)
The Seminoles will likely be without their best player, Aaron Thomas, and will definitely be without starting point guard Devon Bookert, so that makes this game a bit more tricky than it would be ordinarily (and it would be). FSU has won two games without them now, including one against a Charleston Southern team that knocked off an SEC team on the road, so maybe they're getting the hang of it. Freshman Xavier Rathan-Meyes has been excellent. And Nebraska hasn't beaten anyone of note, and hasn't exactly blown any decent teams out this season, either. So who knows. FSU is going to have to find a way to score against what will be a stingy Husker defense, though.
Pittsburgh (4-2) at Indiana (5-1) (Tuesday, 7:00 p.m.)
When Pittsburgh announced before the season began that it would suspend Durand Johnson for the year, it basically turned Pitt from a sure-fire NCAA Tournament team into a team that will be scrapping for its proverbial postseason life. And with a loss to Hawaii, a struggle with Chaminade and a blowout loss to San Diego State, that's proven to be the case. But Indiana has already lost at home to Eastern Washington and struggled with a bad UNCG team on Friday. The Hoosiers have dealt with nearly as much tumult, and any guess as to how this game will shake out between two streaky offensive teams that have struggled on the defensive end would be just that -- a guess.
NC State (6-0) at Purdue (5-1) (Tuesday, 9:00 p.m.)
This will be NC State's first game against a Power 5 team and its first trip away from home, but the Wolfpack have faced two potential NCAA Tournament teams in Richmond and Boise State, so they've been tested, and they've finished off some close games. Purdue is 2-1 against the Power 5, but the Boilermakers have just one win over a team ranked in Ken Pomeroy's top 50 (BYU, in overtime last Wednesday). NC State's defense has done a fantastic job all year of defending the interior while keeping opponents off the foul line, and they're going to have to do it again against a Purdue team that scores over a quarter of its points from the charity stripe an shoots nearly 57 percent from two.
No. 4 Duke (7-0) at No. 2 Wisconsin (7-0) (Wednesday, 9:30 p.m.)
If Duke had not looked so good all season long, this would be a Big Ten lead, albeit slightly. But the Blue Devils' offense looks like an unstoppable force, even against a Wisconsin defense that has traditionally been one of the nation's best. Wisconsin is an insanely tough place to play, though, and the Badgers are one of the most experienced teams in the nation, not to mention one of its better offenses. That will be the key for Duke, a team that has made improvements on defense but has shown vulnerabilities at times this year -- how well can it defend that Wisconsin offense? And can the talented freshmen show patience against that slow, deliberate pace?
Yes, another tie. The ACC will need three of its toss-up games to go their way (or maybe an upset in one of the Big Ten-lean games), but that's certainly doable.