Football season isn’t quite over, but I’m glad we’re getting into baseball. Before we do, allow a minute for this brief interlude …
Longtime readers may know that I’m a lifelong New York Giants fan. I was on the season-ticket waiting list for 24 years before finally getting them in 2000. Despite moving to North Carolina awhile back, I haven’t given up my tickets. When discussing today’s article with my colleague Joel Beall on Monday, he asked me to “keep the G-Men references under nine.” Joel, I’ll keep it to one:
GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO GIANTS!
And now, back to our regularly scheduled programming.
In early January, we held our first 2012 mock experts draft. It was a 12-team, 5x5 format, with 21 rounds. Roster composition was as follows:
- 1 Catcher
- 1 First Baseman
- 1 Second Baseman
- 1 Third Baseman
- 1 Shortstop
- 3 Outfielders
- 1 Utility
- 8 Pitchers
- 4 Bench Players
The esteemed participants were (in draft order):
1. Mike Harmon (FOXSports.com)
2. Jake Westrich (WhatIfSports.com)
3. Brett Pearce (WhatIfSports.com)
4. Tom Zentmeyer (WhatIfSports.com)
5. Patrick Miller (WhatIfSports.com)
6. Joel Beall (FOXSports.com)
7. Scott Eble (WhatIfSports.com)
8. Ryan Fowler (FOXSports.com)
9. Brad Johnson (Rotowire)
10. John Halpin (FOXSports.com)
11. Mitch Mustain (WhatIfSports.com)
12. Jeff Erickson (Rotowire)
There are many ways to analyze a mock draft, so let’s try this: We’ll review the first round on a pick-by-pick basis, and then go over each team’s best and worst picks. If you’d like to check out the entire draft for yourself, here’s a link.
Round 1
1. Matt Kemp, OF (Harmon) – Would have been my pick. Harmon is a HUGE Rihanna fan, so this wasn’t a surprise.
2. Albert Pujols, 1B (Westrich) – Sure, why not? I have him seventh, but he’s still money.
3. Jose Bautista, 3B/OF (Pearce) – He’s my No. 8, but as a third baseman he’s really solid. No big complaints.
4. Justin Verlander, SP (Zentmeyer) – The AL MVP and Cy Young winner is a third-rounder on my board, and the fourth starter behind Roy Halladay, Clayton Kershaw and Cliff Lee. Verlander is terrific, but I don’t pick starters this early, and I’ll bet anyone a nickel that JV’s ERA goes over 3.00 this season. Such is life in the American League.
5. Miguel Cabrera, 1B, (Miller) – I have him at No. 5, too. Rock solid.
6. Troy Tulowitzki, SS (Beall) – Can a guy be a bargain at No. 6? I have Tulo third, and have seen him at first and second in some mocks.
7. Joey Votto, 1B (Eble) – Nah. Votto’s a really good hitter, but I have him 15th overall. In related news, Mr. Eble lives in Cincinnati.
8. Robinson Cano, 2B (Fowler) – I like Cano a lot, but I think Dustin Pedroia is a slightly better fantasy player. My fellow Yankee fans might burn me at the stake for offering that analysis.
9. Jacoby Ellsbury, OF (Johnson) – I’ve got Ellsbury at No. 4, and was hoping he’d fall to me at 10. Great value here, even if he doesn’t hit 30 homers again.
10. Adrian Gonzalez, 1B (Halpin) – Even though Gonzalez played 159 games, I think his right shoulder injury hurt him more than we know, and that’s saying something for a guy who batted .338 with 27 HR, 117 RBI and 108 runs scored. He could be a monster this season; I have him at sixth overall.
11. Prince Fielder, 1B (Mitch) – I have Prince ranked 17th overall, partly because of his still-unknown destination.
12. Evan Longoria, 3B (Erickson) – Longoria is going to bounce back with a big season at age 26. You watch.
Best and Worst Picks
Harmon
Best: Nelson Cruz is a big injury risk in the second or third round. But at the end of the sixth, he’s all upside.
Worst: David Robertson in the 15th round of a 12-team mixed league? Yikes!
Westrich
Best: Call me crazy, but Ben Zobrist (seventh round, 73rd overall) is a third-rounder in my book. Why didn’t I pick him before this?
Worst: Jonathan Papelbon and Mariano Rivera in the ninth and 10th rounds, huh? This team might win saves. It’ll certainly suffer in other places as a result of these picks.
Pearce
Best: Ryan Howard might miss a quarter to a third of the season, and we don’t know how effective he’ll be upon returning from an Achilles’ injury. In the 14th round, it was definitely worth finding out.
Worst: Adam Wainwright will likely be limited to 150-170 innings after missing all of 2011 due to Tommy John surgery. Picking him in the seventh round was a gigantic reach.
Zentmeyer
Best: I have Jimmy Rollins as a top-25 player, so I love him in the sixth round (69th overall).
Worst: Nats closer Drew Storen with the 45th pick? WHAAAAAAAT???
Miller
Best: Adrian Beltre is a very underrated hitter. His numbers in Seattle weren’t great, but his home park worked against him. Over the last two years with the Red Sox and Rangers, Beltre has batted .309 while averaging 30 homers and 103 RBI. He was a nice buy at the 53rd pick.
Worst: Johnny Cueto had a 2.31 ERA in 2011, but his .249 BABIP suggests that it was due to lots and lots of luck. Picking him in the seventh round (77th overall) was asking for disappointment.
Beall
Best: Danny Espinosa’s batting average is cause for worry, but he almost went 20-20 in his first full season. Beall getting him in the 20th round was one of my favorite picks of the draft.
Worst: Michael Bourn is a money-in-the-bank basestealer, but in a league of this depth, steals are always available late. Picking him in the fifth round (54th overall) was unnecessary.
Eble
Best: If you want to worry a little about Stephen Drew’s comeback from a broken ankle, that’s fine. He’d have been a great pick in the 16th round (186th overall) even if his leg was amputated.
Worst: Even before the Reds signed Ryan Madson, did a flier on reliever Sean Marshall need to be taken in Round 18? Ugh.
Fowler
Best: As the Astros’ starting shortstop, Jed Lowrie is going to be a nice fantasy buy in the 21st round (248th overall). He qualifies at third base, too!
Worst: Fowler drank some of the Michael Cuddyer Coors Field Kool-Aid when picking him in the ninth round (104th overall). He’s a nice hitter, and the new home park will help him, but … come on. He doesn’t even qualify at third base anymore.
Johnson
Best: Royals’ youngster Mike Moustakas might be ready to have a solid first full season, and was an excellent value in the 19th round (225th overall). He could have a better year than …
Worst: I’m going to cast my early vote for Blue Jays 3B Brett Lawrie as the most overhyped fantasy draftee of 2012. He was a reach here with the 64th overall pick, and I’ve seen him go earlier in other mocks. The guy is 22 years old, and while he had a nice 43-game stretch with the Jays last season, his big breakout came in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, where my four-year-old son could hit 20 homers. Lawrie is a very good prospect who can help your fantasy squad now, but someone will take him earlier than you should in just about every draft.
Halpin
Best: Shane Victorino is an underrated fantasy outfielder. I have him ranked in the top 70, so I was pretty happy to get him with the 106th pick.
Worst: I have a major fantasy crush on Carlos Santana, but I probably didn’t need to grab him with the 34th overall pick. Picking an old closer (Joe Nathan) with a 4.84 ERA in the 14th round wasn’t the greatest idea in the world, either.
Mitch
Best: I had Peter Bourjos ranked a couple dozen spots higher than the end of the 13th round. Some power, good speed – what’s not to like?
Worst: Tommy Hanson might recover from his bout with shoulder tendinitis and return to ace status. With the 62nd pick, he scares the heck out of me.
Erickson
Best: Mark Reynolds’ batting average has the potential to be fantasy kryptonite. At the beginning of the 14th round (157th overall), you take 35 homers if you can get them, and figure out how to deal with the BA later.
Worst: I don’t know how Ryan Braun’s positive PED test is going to play out, but a 50-game suspension is still the most likely outcome. Grabbing him in the third round (36th overall) was too big a risk for my taste.
