Starting a year from now in London, many more Olympic medal celebrations could take on a different look and sound: Less ''Star Spangled Banner,'' more ''National Anthem of the Republic of China.'' Less red, white and blue, American style, more white, blue and red, Russian style.
No longer will the race to win the most medals be a race for second, behind the United States, which dominated for decades in the aftermath of the fall of the Soviet Union.
''It's an interesting landscape out there,'' Alan Ashley, the U.S. Olympic Committee's chief of sport performance said Tuesday. ''Some of these other nations are pouring enormous resources into this. Governments are behind them. They're very serious contenders. That does keep me up at night sometimes.''
Anyone who follows the Olympics knows the USOC leadership has mastered the art of lowering expectations. This time, though, there's some validity behind it.
Luciano Barra of Italy, globally respected as one of the top predictors of how the medals table would turn out, put out his latest projections in May. It called for Russia to win the medal count with 90, followed by China with 88 and the United States with 75. In 2008, the United States won 110 - 10 more than second-place China.
''The amount of investment going on by the top 15 or 20 national organizing committees, the amount they've increased, it's startling,'' said Steve Roush, who held Ashley's position at USOC through 2008 and now is a senior consultant for TSE Consulting, which helps countries around the world build up their Olympic programs.
With the Olympics starting one year from Wednesday, the United States goes into the final planning phase feeling pressure from countries both big and small.
-Back in 2001, when it won the right to host the 2008 Olympics, China poured billions into infrastructure, coaching and development for a country with a population of 1.3 billion that had barely been a blip on the Olympic radar until 1984. The goal was to be a formidable power at the games they hosted. But the project was not designed to end there, and it hasn't. One telling sign: With the 2011 world swimming championships still in progress in Shanghai, China already has won 20 medals, to five for the United States.
''So many hosts have had this post-host slump, because they invest money in individual athletes and really focus on hosting, with not a lot of vision for future,'' Roush said. ''But because of the magnitude of their investment, China said, `We not only want to do well as a host in `08, but we want to establish a system of long-term athlete development here that we've not had in the past.'''
-In Russia, remnants of the Soviet Union's Olympic powerhouse program have slowly decayed. But when Russia won the right to host the 2014 Winter Olympics, more urgency was put into rebuilding the infrastructure and shoring up the coaching and talent pool. Last year's poor showing at the Vancouver Games - ranked sixth with only 15 medals - was deemed unacceptable by none other than Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and the rebuilding program was put on an even faster track. Naturally, Russia wants no repeat of the winter debacle on its home turf, but the summer programs are benefiting, as well.
-Helped in part by funding from a national lottery, Britain may have reached its goal for 2012 in 2008, when it won 47 medals and finished fourth in the standings. Now, anything lower will be considered a disappointment.
-Like Britain, Brazil (2016) is a future host and has been beefing up its Olympic program. Their model is similar to that of many mid-sized countries, which are ''pumping money in strategically,'' Roush said, going after sports where they have tradition and also those that offer multiple medal opportunities.
''Brazil is an example of a new country in the hunt that will be taking medals away from other countries,'' said Roush, who does consulting work for Brazil's Olympic program. ''They'll try to pick away, and they'll have a chance at it because of the fact they're doing it in a focused way.''
None of this is to say that the USOC doesn't spend money, and spend it strategically. It currently provides $87 million to athletes and national governing bodies and has a history of increasing that number during every four-year period.
''We're asking ourselves, `How do we make sure everything we're doing on the behalf of ... athletes and coaches is the right thing?'' Ashley said.
''People understand that training for the Olympics is a full-time job,'' gymnast Jonathan Horton, the 2008 silver medalist on the high bar, said Tuesday night at a USOC event in New York. ''That's one of the biggest parts: How do we survive when all we're doing is training all day? There's so many people who see this and are willing to help out in any way they can.''
Increasingly over the last few years, other countries have been asking themselves that, too. And spending money to find the answers.
''Basically, if your investment stays mainly flat, your performance is going down,'' Roush said. ''If you're really trying to keep up with the Joneses, the reality is, you've got to sink far more money into it just to stay even.''
