The final regular-season race before the Chase for the Championship undertakes its new format is always going to be an exciting event, but what makes the cut-off even more nail biting is that the race takes place on one of the most exciting circuits on the schedule, Richmond International Raceway. The ¾-mile track lends itself to some of the closest racing of every season, and with the potential for almost any driver to claim a spot in the playoffs we could see even more fireworks than normal.
The track's 14-degree turns allow for a number of different lines to be taken through each turn, and teams will gamble with track position and tires in order to leap forward and hang on for a top finish. Joey Logano conquered the short track earlier this season, leading just 46 laps of the race to beat out the strong cars of Jeff Gordon and Brad Keselowski. Track position is usually a big factor in obtaining a good result, and that is demonstrated by the fact that 77% of Richmond's 116 races have been won by a competitor starting inside the top 10 positions. However, three of the most recent winners came from 17th or worse to take the checkered flag. The swing in these statistics shows that track improvements and unique pit strategy can jumble the order.
Denny Hamlin - Through the last nine years at Richmond, arguably no driver has been better than Hamlin. His driver rating is 112.5 in that span. Throughout his 16-race career at the track his average finish is 9.8 with two victories and more than 1,300 laps led. Keeping that in mind, Hamlin didn't lead any laps in the Richmond outing earlier this season. The No. 11 has rounded a corner in performance, though. He turned in three top-10 finishes in the last five races, whereas his last visit to Richmond ended a string of four consecutive finishes outside of the top 10. Hamlin finished a strong third last week in Atlanta from a difficult starting position of 17th, and will be looking for more this week.
Kevin Harvick - Having the fastest car for the majority of last week's race didn't pay off for Harvick. He lost track position to Kasey Kahne and ended in the garage after contact on a restart. The No. 4 has reassumed the title of fastest car in the garage, though. Harvick has been a stout competitor most of the season, and appears to be near his strongest right now. His Richmond driver rating is among the best at 109.9, and his average finish at the track from 27 starts is 11.3. Harvick has won here three times, and has been a serious challenger most weeks this season. Fantasy owners should be able to expect him to wash off last week's disappointment on Saturday.
Clint Bowyer - Despite a terrible race here earlier this season, Bowyer could be one to keep an eye on this week. He sits on the bubble of the Chase and typically performs well at Richmond. The No. 15 remains one of the few drivers capable of making the Chase without a victory on Saturday. Two of his last five races have resulted in top-10s, and he has an average Richmond result of 12.0. Bowyer's Richmond driver rating is 98.7. He needed a solid points finish last week, but a broken gear lever dashed those hopes. Now he'll be gunning for victory. Bowyer has started in the top five for each of the last four Richmond races, and avoiding trouble on Saturday could grant him a big payoff.
Jeff Gordon - Gordon led 173 laps at Richmond en route to a second-place finish earlier his year. He was a favorite in each of the last few races as well, but was bitten by unfortunate circumstances and bad luck. Gordon's 43 Richmond starts have earned him two wins, 17 top-5s, and 27 top-10s. His average finish at the track is 13.9 and he has been racing as well as he ever has this season. Six pole positions in his Richmond career can also give fantasy players confidence that he will likely be starting near the front of Saturday's field as well. Gordon should be a solid fantasy option this week, despite his stumbles the past few weeks.
Kyle Busch - Rarely can fantasy players look at short-track options and not consider Busch. At Richmond in particular he has an average finish of 7.0 from 19 races including four victories. Busch has been nothing short of amazing at this particular track, and he finished third here in the spring. The No. 18 has recently been in a freefall, though. Busch hasn't finished inside the top 10 since the Brickyard 400, and is currently on a run of five consecutive races without a top-15 result. This is the last race this team has to get things right before the Chase, and improvement in consistency will be a necessity. While Busch could offer plenty of upside, he may be content with a solid top-10.
Paul Menard - Menard has been doing himself a number of favors by turning his late-season slump into a small run of success. The Richard Childress Racing driver scored consecutive top-10 finishes after a six-race lockout of the top 10. He ran well last week in Atlanta as well, but finished 18th there. Menard is currently on the outside of the Chase field, searching for a way to work his way into one of the two remaining spots. He'll need a win to make it happen. Richmond hasn't been the happiest of hunting grounds for Menard in the past, though. His career average finish at the track is 24.5, and he has only ever scored one top-5 finish there. This team will be making gambles Saturday night.
Austin Dillon - While it is difficult to judge a driver with just one Sprint Cup Series start at Richmond, Dillon might be a fantasy option to avoid this week. His spring effort at the track earned him a 27th-place result and a driver rating of 54.9. His poor result in that race is not why fantasy players should avoid him, though. After starting 2014 off with consistency, Dillon has taken steps backward. He hasn't finished inside the top 10 at any race since he raced to the fifth-place spot in July's Daytona outing. Dillon has a mountain to climb to make the Chase, and needs a win to do it. He hasn't threatened for victory yet in 2014, and it is hard to see that changing this week.
Kasey Kahne - Fresh from his playoff clinching performance in Atlanta, Kahne turns his attention to preparing for the Chase. The pressure is off for the moment, and a top-10 run for Kahne this week would be a good building block for the last races of the season. Kahne's Richmond record isn't a great one, though. His average finish from 21 starts there is only 17.8, and despite claiming a win in 2005 he has only notched two top-10 Richmond finishes since 2009. Kahne's driver rating in the last nine years at Richmond is 87.6, and given how tough it has been to win back-to-back races this season the odds may not be in his favor this week.
Jimmie Johnson - It is a rare occasion that fantasy players should be wary of Johnson at a particular track, but this week's visit to Richmond has proven problematic for the No. 48 team recently. Despite having three Richmond wins in his trophy room, Johnson hasn't finished better than 12th here in the last four races. It might be hard to believe but Johnson has only led three laps at this track in the last five races. His driver rating is average at 88.2, but is weighed down by a plethora of tough finishes. Though he only has one official Richmond DNF, he has failed to finish on the lead lap in 12 of his 25 outings. Johnson is not the confident option you might jump to early this week.
A.J. Allmendinger - Already locked into the Chase, Allmendinger could still pose a threat this week. The former road racer finished an impressive sixth in Richmond earlier this year and missed the top 15 just once since 2010. Allmendinger's average Richmond finish is 19.6 with just three finishes off of the lead lap, and his driver rating is 71.1. Road racers can often find an advantage on some of the more unique ovals on the Sprint Cup circuit, and Richmond might be that place for him. Though he might not be expected to make it deep into the knock-out rounds of the Chase, Allmendinger is still capable of valuable finishes, and that could be just what fantasy owners need this week.
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Radune was named the 2012 Racing Writer of the Year by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. Get a FREE RotoWire 10-day trial (no credit card required) at RotoWire.com.
