After the flat, tricky triangle challenged NASCAR Sprint Cup teams last weekend, the racers look ahead to the wide turns of Michigan International Speedway. The 2-mile tri-oval features 18-degree banking in the turns, and opens up plenty of lines for drivers to run through the corners.
Races at Michigan have been characterized by close racing, varying lines through the turns, fuel mileage races, and pit strategy. Of the 89 races held at the track since 1969, 75% have been won from the top-10 starting positions. Only six times has a driver started worse than 21st and come forward to win. Therefore, qualifying and practice rankings will be very important early indicators of success this week.
Of the manufacturers, Ford has the edge thanks to 13 wins from Roush Fenway Racing drivers. Chevrolet isn’t far behind, but this is the backyard of the automakers, so everyone will want a win. Greg Biffle has the most wins among drivers at four, though no one is near David Pearson’s record of nine.
Teams will have to treat their tires and engines well in order to last the distance on Sunday, but all the while they will be pushing the edge of the envelope. Fuel mileage and pit strategy will no doubt be a factor, but pure speed cannot be discounted.
Greg Biffle – Though Biffle hasn’t scored a top-10 finish since the Aaron’s 499 at Talladega Superspeedway, he should be a driver that fantasy players consider even before action gets started this weekend in Michigan. The veteran driver has a fantastic Michigan resume that includes two wins and four top-10s in the last five races at the track. If you look back through the past nine years at Michigan, Biffle has the highest driver rating at 110.0 and an average finish of 10.4. He spent more than 80% of the last 18 races at the track running inside the top 15. This is the consistent track performance that makes Biffle a stand-out this week, and he could make an optimal choice for many rosters.
Matt Kenseth – Pocono proved to be another disappointment for Kenseth, who qualified poorly and then had to overcome a damaged nose for much of the distance. His prospects look good again this week at Michigan, though. The Joe Gibbs Racing driver has the second-best driver rating in the last nine years here at 105.6 and an average finish of 10.1. More recently the driver of the No. 20 car picked up a top-5 and three top-10s in the five most recent Michigan races. His Pocono result was against the run of play as he came to Pennsylvania with three consecutive top-10 finishes, so a return to form should be expected this week and fantasy players shouldn’t be scared by last week’s trouble.
Clint Bowyer – Decent results are starting to become more common for Bowyer after starting the 2014 season by being locked out of the top-10 finishers in the first five races. He finished 11th at Pocono Raceway last weekend, and has two top-5 finishes in the last five races. This team is starting to inch forward, and could take a big step in the right direction in Michigan. Bowyer’s average finish from the last five races at the track is 6.8, which is the best among active drivers in that span. He hasn’t finished outside of the top 10 at Michigan since 2010. Obviously this is a good track for the driver of the No. 15, and anything outside of the top 10 could be considered a disappointment.
Carl Edwards – The best average finish among active drivers through the last 18 Michigan races belongs to Edwards at 8.2. He failed to finish on the lead lap once in the latest five races there, but picked up three top-10 finishes as well. Roush Fenway Racing tends to have a good package for the sister tracks of Michigan and California, and Edwards is no stranger to success here. His two wins at the track were way back in 2007 and 2008, but he finished in the top 10 in each of the three races here since the fall of 2012. The DNF he recorded at Pocono last week wasn’t his fault, so fantasy players shouldn’t expect the start of a slump.
Jeff Gordon – Gordon’s last five Michigan races include three lead-lap finishes, and two top-10s. The veteran has two wins at the 2-mile oval, but the latest came in 2001. He leads many of the statistical categories at the track; including laps led and pole positions. However, his best finish in the last three Michigan runs was 17th in last year’s fall race. His driver rating at the track is 89.8, which suggests his upside this weekend may not be as great as other fantasy options. He may well be overvalued at the track, but fantasy players will have to weigh that against his four top-10 finishes in the last four races, including his return to Victory Lane at Kansas Speedway.
Kurt Busch – Busch overcame his 2014 struggles to finish an impressive third in Sunday’s Pocono 400. That top-5 result was his first since winning the STP 500, ending a frustrating string of seven races where he finished outside of the top 15. However, fantasy players shouldn’t start jumping on the bandwagon quite yet. Busch’s Michigan record isn’t the greatest. His average finish in the last five races there is 26.4 with just one lead lap finish, a third-place run in last fall’s race. Busch’s career at the track spans 26 races and includes two victories, but just 14 lead-lap finishes and an average result of 21.2. Fantasy rosters would be safer to wait on Busch’s selection until he demonstrates more consistent top finishes.
Jamie McMurray – Despite starting 18th last week in Pennsylvania, McMurray worked his way to a 10th-place finish, his second in three races. While that was a good run for the team, fantasy owners this week would be well advised to wait and see how the No. 1 practices and qualifies. McMurray doesn’t have the numbers at Michigan that make him an early lock for rosters. His average finish from 22 races is 19.7, with an average starting spot of 25th. He hasn’t finished in the top 10 there in his last 10 outings, dating back to the fall race of 2008. McMurray has proven to be fast time and again in the first half of 2014, but converting that promise to consistent results has been a challenge.
Denny Hamlin – Believe it or not, Hamlin has failed to finish inside the top 10 at Michigan since he won this race back in 2011. His 16-race career at the track produced an average finish of 15th, along with two wins, but his recent history has been suspect. He qualified on pole at Pocono, and was poised for a return to his normally stellar form, and finished fourth, his second consecutive top-5 after a slow start to the season. While Hamlin has the background to prove he can be strong when the series visits this week’s track, fantasy players will have to answer whether or not they think he can reverse his recent Michigan statistics with the team’s current momentum pushing him forward.
David Gilliland – Gilliland holds the dubious distinction of being the active driver with the most Michigan starts without a top-10 finish at 15. The veteran driver’s best finish was 17th in this race way back in 2007. His resume includes just two lead-lap finishes, and an average result of 29.6. This is not the week for fantasy owners to take a flyer on Gilliland with their deeper roster selections. He finished 28th last weekend in Pocono, which has been the expectation of the veteran driver this season. Only the visit to Richmond produced a top-20 finish for the team so far. Until this driver starts scoring more consistent top-20 finishes, fantasy players should continue looking elsewhere to fill their open selections with more upside potential.
Paul Menard – Though Menard finished a disappointing 26th last weekend in Pocono, the Richard Childress Racing driver wasn’t expected to do much more than a top-20. He missed that mark, but has the potential to outperform expectations this week in Michigan, especially considering he has three top-10 finishes in the last five races. As a result, his 2014 season has been one of his best to date, and he finished a strong fourth in last fall’s Michigan race. Though he only has three top-10 finishes from 15 career starts at the oval, all three have come from the six most recent races. This driver is improving each time he visits Michigan, and could present an interesting bargain-play for fantasy owners looking for a dark horse this weekend.
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Radune was named the 2012 Racing Writer of the Year by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. Get a FREE RotoWire 10-day trial (no credit card required) at RotoWire.com.
